What does Macquarie think Liontown Resources shares are worth?

Let's see if analysts think that this lithium miner is in the buy zone or best avoided.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares are under pressure again on Monday.

In afternoon trade, the lithium miner's shares are down 1.5% to 55.7 cents.

This means that its shares are now down over 50% since this time last year.

Is this a buying opportunity? Let's see what analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) are saying about its shares.

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.

Image source: Getty Images

Are Liontown shares undervalued?

According to a note out of Macquarie, its analysts see value in Liontown's shares at current levels. But not enough to recommend them as a buy.

Macquarie has responded to the company's quarterly update by retaining its neutral rating and 65 cents price target.

Based on its current share price, this implies potential upside of almost 17% for investors from current levels.

The broker was pleased with its performance during the third quarter, with production, sales, and costs better than expected. It said:

Spodumene concentrate production/sales of 95.7kt/93.9kt was a 8%/4% beat vs. VA driven by stronger than expected recoveries of 64% (8% beat vs. VA). AISC of A$1,081/t was also a 8% beat vs. VA on lower sustaining capital (general & mine development) during the 3Q which is expected to be caught up in the 4Q

Commenting on its recommendation, Macquarie said:

Maintain Neutral: LTR has now delivered two solid quarters of operational performance in a row with the uptick in recoveries particularly encouraging, and is doing well in a challenging lithium market, but it needs an uptick in spodumene prices to +US$900/t to generate meaningful FCF moving forward.

Is anyone more bullish?

Bell Potter is more positive on Liontown and its shares. In fact, it thinks they could offer huge returns for investors with a high tolerance for risk.

A note released this morning reveals that its analysts have retained their speculative buy rating and 90 cents price target on its shares. This suggests that its shares could rise 62% over the next 12 months.

Bell Potter was also pleased with the company's performance during the quarter. It said:

LTR reported Q3 FY25 spodumene concentrate production of 96kt and sales of 94kt (BP est. 89kt), supporting revenues of $104m (BP est. $104m) and a closing cash position of $173m (prior quarter $193m). Kathleen Valley's unit operating costs were US$512/dmt SC6e (BP est. US$562/dmt) and All-In Sustaining Costs US$678/dmt. The average received price was US$815/t SC6e (prior quarter $806/t) compared with indices averaging around US$844/t. LTR delivered improvements across processing plant availability, throughput and recoveries, despite marginally lower ore feed grades.

Outside this, it continues to see the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project as a highly strategic asset. It concludes:

LTR's 100% owned Kathleen Valley lithium project remains highly strategic in terms of scale, long project life and location in a tier-one mining jurisdiction. LTR has offtake contracts with top-tier EV and battery OEMs. Under our modelled assumptions, we expect that LTR is fully funded to free cash flow. LTR is an asset development company; our Speculative risk rating recognises this higher level of risk.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A steel worker peers out from under his protective headwear which is tipped back on his head as he stares solemnly straight ahead with steel production equipment in the background.
Materials Shares

This ASX 200 stock is up almost 30% in a year. Now it is making another big move

This ASX 200 stock is slipping despite a major update.

Read more »

Cheerful businessman with a mining hat on the table sitting back with his arms behind his head while looking at his laptop's screen.
Materials Shares

Bell Potter tips 129% upside for this ASX materials stock

Bell Potter is bullish on this materials stock.

Read more »

Miner looks into the distance as he checks a folder.
Materials Shares

Lynas shares retreat on Malaysia expansion news

Rare earths giant addresses environmental questions.

Read more »

Three businesspeople leap high with the CBD in the background.
Materials Shares

Guess which ASX lithium share is jumping 25% on big news

Investors are happy with this announcement with Korean origins.

Read more »

A hand points to a salt crust at a salt mining operation in Australia.
Materials Shares

This billion-dollar ASX resources company is tipped to jump more than 100%

This company's major project is nearing completion.

Read more »

Three happy office workers cheer as they read about good financial news on a laptop.
Materials Shares

Forget BHP and Rio Tinto, this ASX copper share could rise 100%+

Bell Potter is bullish on this copper stock and sees huge potential returns.

Read more »

Miner with thumbs down.
Materials Shares

PLS shares drop 5%: What's driving the move?

The lithium stock extends monthly losses on weak sentiment.

Read more »

a miniature moulded model of a man bent over with a pick working stands behind a sign that has lithium's scientific abbreviation 'Li' with the word lithium underneath it against a sparse bland background.
Materials Shares

This ASX lithium stock just reached a key milestone. Why is it down?

This lithium stock is down after a key project update.

Read more »