This ASX 300 share is near a 52-week low, is it time to buy?

Is this stock an underrated opportunity to buy?

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The S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) share HMC Capital Ltd (ASX: HMC) is trading close to its 52-week low, as the chart below shows.

This business describes itself as an ASX-listed diversified asset manager that's focused on real estate, private equity, the energy transition, digital infrastructure, and private credit. It manages money on behalf of institutional, high-net-worth, and retail investors.

It claims its point of difference is its ability to "execute large, complex transactions".

The ASX 300 share reported a lot of progress in its FY25 half-year results with its operational performance numbers.

Earnings recap

For the six months to 31 December 2024, the business reported that its assets under management (AUM) grew 45% compared to June 2024, reaching $18.5 billion.

This helped the business grow its HY25 pre-tax operating earnings by 240% to $202.2 million, and operating earnings per share (EPS) grew by 204% to 51.9 cents.

The business generated $166.9 million of statutory net profit after tax (NPAT), and the board decided to pay a dividend per share of 6 cents.

HMC Capital share pain could be an opportunity

The HMC Capital share price has reduced by 50% since the start of the year. That's a big decrease for a business that has grown significantly in recent years. But in my view, the business has a compelling future.

The ASX 300 share has five scalable verticals that are exposed to pleasing trends. Those trends include an ageing population, decarbonisation, digitalisation, and the onshoring of the supply chain.

It has an ambition to grow its AUM from $19 billion to at least $50 billion over the medium term (three to five years) in a "capital-light manner".

HMC Capital recently noted in an investor presentation that the investment and geopolitical landscape has "shifted". It has decided to pivot its strategies and risk settings to "reflect the current operating environment".

Management also said the ASX 300 share has a "strong balance sheet", with no drawn debt and $675 million of committed and undrawn funding lines.

One of the biggest moves by the business recently was the establishment of DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (ASX: DGT), meaning it's exposed to the "rapidly growing and opportunity rich data centre sector."

HMC Capital says the new digital infrastructure required to meet the processing and storage requirements of new technologies is forecast to require more than US$1 trillion in capital expenditures by 2028. This opportunity spans data centres, telco towers, and fibre networks. This is one area where HMC Capital can attract FUM in the coming years and deploy a lot of capital.

Valuation

According to forecasts from UBS, HMC Capital shares are valued at 13.5x FY26's estimated earnings and a grossed-up dividend yield of 4%, including franking credits.

I think this could be a good time to invest at the beaten-up price.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended HMC Capital. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended HMC Capital. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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