Paladin Energy Ltd (ASX: PDN) shares have been on fire these past two days.
On Wednesday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) uranium stock rocketed an eye-watering 24.6% following the release of the company's quarterly update.
Today, that strong run is continuing, with shares up 6.1% in late morning trade at $5.26 apiece.
This sees Paladin shares up 32.2% since Tuesday's close.
And according to the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), those gains could be just the tip of the iceberg.
The broker has a 12-month price target of $8.45 on Paladin Energy shares, representing a potential upside of more than 60% from current levels.
Here's why Macquarie has a bullish outlook for the ASX 200 uranium miner.
Image source: Getty Images
Why Paladin Energy shares can keep charging higher
Investors sent Paladin Energy shares flying higher yesterday after the miner revealed it had achieved the highest level of quarterly uranium production at its Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) since the mine's restart.
Located in Namibia, LHM recommenced commercial production in March 2024.
Paladin produced 745,484 pounds of uranium at LHM over the three months to 31 March. That was up 17% from the December quarter (Q2). And the miner achieved this despite significant rainfalls that hindered its operations in March.
Macquarie noted that the quarterly production (3Q) at LHM was "much stronger than expected". And the broker pointed out that the uranium miner "expects another sequential increase in production in 4Q and FY 2026 guidance in August".
And that brings Paladin closer to meeting its full year FY 2025 production guidance of 3.0 million pounds of uranium, rain delays and all.
"We now see 2.8 million pounds FY 2025 production (4Q 751,000 pounds), unlikely to have met prior guidance (low end 3.0 million pounds), but looking closer than the market feared," Macquarie said.
Looking at what could impact Paladin Energy shares in the year ahead, Macquarie said it now forecasts 4.5 million pounds of uranium production in FY 2026.
And pleasingly, the miner reported it has not been directly impacted by the market disruptions from US President Donald Trump's global tariff campaign.
According to Paladin Energy CEO Ian Purdy:
While we saw global economic uncertainty and market turbulence from United States tariffs increase at the end of the quarter, we have not seen any direct impact on Paladin's operations or sales from the United States Presidential decisions at this time.
Macquarie has an outperform rating on Paladin Energy shares, noting that the miner's team is "proving its resilience through Langer Heinrich ramp-up challenges, particularly the commencement of mining so soon".
Paladin Energy shares snapshot
Over the past full year, the ASX 200 uranium stock has gotten hammered by slumping uranium prices, with Paladin Energy shares still down 61.6% over 12 months.
