S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy share Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) is having a really bad week.
Headquartered in Melbourne, Karoon's recent woes mirror the big falls witnessed in global energy markets since the announcement of US President Donald Trump's wholesale global tariff campaign.
And Karoon is certainly not alone, with rival ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) also taking a beating this past week.
On 2 April, before Trump's tariff news swept the world, Brent crude oil was trading for US$74.95 per barrel. With Brent slipping another 3.3% overnight amid uncertainty over rapidly shifting US trade policies, the Brent crude oil price currently stands at US$63.33 per barrel.
As you'd expect, this has also seen the Karoon share price plunge. Shares have fallen from $1.62 at market close on 1 April to $1.22 in morning trade today for a loss of 24.7%.
But this big retrace could offer an opportune entry point. Especially if Karoon can increase its earnings per share (EPS) in FY 2026 and FY 2027, as Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) forecasts.
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What is Macquarie saying about the ASX 200 energy share?
In its 10 April research report, Macquarie reiterated its outperform rating on Karoon shares, though with a slightly reduced price target.
The ASX 200 energy share's flagship asset is its 100% owned and operated Bauna/Patola offshore production project in Brazil. Karoon acquired Bauna in 2020, and Macquarie noted that it has materially boosted production rates since then.
On the longer-term growth front, the broker noted:
Karoon also has a development opportunity for a second standalone asset nearby at Neon/Goia (KAR 100%). It recently acquired a 30% stake in the LLOG-operated producing project Who Dat, located in the US Gulf of Mexico.
Macquarie said that Karoon had completed its maintenance works at Buana 10 days earlier than expected, with less of an impact on production than anticipated. The broker said the Bauna field is now performing well.
Commenting on the project in February, Karoon CEO Julian Fowles said, "In Brazil, the acquisition of the Bauna FPSO is aimed at taking direct control over a vital asset for Karoon, allowing us to improve operational efficiencies and extend Bauna field life."
Macquarie noted that the ASX 200 energy share has 84% unhedged oil exposure. This leaves it vulnerable to potential oil price falls but also sets it up well should oil prices recover.
The broker forecasts Karoon's all-in cash flow breakeven (before dividend payouts) is around US$50 to US$60 per barrel.
Macquarie raised its FY 2025 EPS forecast by 7.8%.
The broker said this reflects "a shorter maintenance program & higher production in Brazil which also leads EPS increases in FY26e/FY27e of 11.2%/10.0%".
If earnings per share increase on this level, it should bode well for passive income investors.
Over the past 12 months, Karoon has paid out 9.5 cents per share in unfranked dividends.
At the current share price, that equates to a trailing dividend yield of 7.8%.
Atop the dividends, Macquarie has a $2.00 12-month price target on the ASX 200 energy share. That represents a potential gain of 64% from current levels.
