Well, this is the week that Donald Trump's much-hyped 'liberation day' will happen. This is when the US President has promised to simultaneously unveil and implement the next stage of his tariff plans. He has called these latest taxes 'reciprocal tariffs'.
Over the past two months or so, the Trump administration has ratcheted up its policy of implementing tariffs – or import taxes – on a number of imports into the US economy. First, it was those 25% tax hikes on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as additional taxes on Chinese imports. Then, it was steel and aluminium tariffs.
Well, things are about to get a whole lot more interesting. As we covered last week, Trump has named 2 April 'liberation day. This will involve imposing a series of additional, wide-ranging tariffs on dozens of other countries' imports into the US economy.
These new 'reciprocal tariffs' will be determined on a country-by-country basis and will be influenced by a range of factors. These include whether a country has a trade surplus with the United States and what taxes it imposes on American exports.
Australia, as well as other major trading economies like South Korea, Japan, and the European Union, are expected to be included, although we don't know exactly what tariffs will be imposed yet.
So, what does all this mean for an ASX investor's share portfolio?
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How will 'reciprocal tariffs' hit ASX shares?
Well, it's quite tricky to put the finger on right now, as we don't yet know how severe Trump's new tariffs will be.
However, it's hard to see the new tariff regime as beneficial to most ASX investors. On the surface, relatively few Australian companies derive a majority of their revenue from exports to the United States.
Any new import taxes are unlikely to directly impact the profits of most blue-chip ASX shares. That includes the big four banks, Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES).
However, it's these tariffs' effects on the health of the global economy that are arguably a clearer and more present danger. There is a real risk that if Trump's new tariffs are as harsh as some fear, they could spark a serious downturn in global growth.
Our economy might not feel too much of an immediate impact if Trump levies a tariff on Australian exports. However, if European, Japanese, South Korean and, in particular, Chinese economic activity slows, it will be bad news (to say the least) for our economy and thus for many ASX stocks.
Let's see what Trump comes up with later this week. The market's reaction will probably tell you all you need to know. Brace yourself.
