Why is Flight Centre down 20% in under a month?

Investors have been hitting the sell button this month. Let's find out why.

| More on:
Couple at an airport waiting for their flight.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It has been a tough time for owners of Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) shares.

The travel agent giant's shares have lost 20% of their value in under a month.

This means that they are now down by approximately a third since this time last year.

Why are Flight Centre shares being sold off?

There are a number of reasons why the company's shares have fallen heavily in recent weeks.

One of those is broad market weakness, which has caused most ASX shares to drop into the red.

In addition, recent updates from US airline operators have shaken confidence in the travel market, putting further pressure on Flight Centre's shares.

But the main drag has been the company's half year results release at the end of last month. Investors were quick to hit the sell button after the company fell short of the market's expectations.

In fact, the selling has been so strong that the Australian stock exchange recently sent the company an ASX Aware Letter.

What was asked?

The stock exchange operator asked the company the following:

Does FLT consider that any measure of its statutory or underlying earnings for the half year ended 31 December 2024 as disclosed in the Results Announcements ('Earnings Information') differed materially from the market's expectations, having regard to the following three base indicators (in decreasing order of relevance and reliability).

Flight Centre acknowledged that its profits fell short of expectations. However, it advised that it decided against providing a prior update on its earnings as the variance between its performance and expectations did not warrant one. It responded:

FLT does not consider that any measure of its statutory or underlying earnings for FY25 1H differs materially from the adjusted half-year consensus forecast of sell-side analysts. FLT considers the key metric to assess FLT's performance is underlying PBT. FLT's actual reported underlying PBT for FY25 H1 was $116.8 million which is 6.8% below the adjusted half-year consensus. This falls within the 15% guideline recommended by ASX.

Should you invest?

The team at Morgans is likely to see this weakness as a buying opportunity. Following its results release, the broker retained its add rating with a price target of $19.80. This implies potential upside of approximately 40% for investors over the next 12 months.

One of Flight Centre's executives appears to believe the selling has been overdone and has been buying shares on-market this month, which could be a good sign.

A change of director's interests notice reveals that Gary Smith bought 3,000 shares on-market on 13 March at an average $13.88 per share. This represents a total consideration of $41,640.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

A happy family of four on holidays stand on a jetty and cheer.
Travel Shares

Travel to the US is down this year. Will Australia's tourism sector benefit?

2025 could prove to be a good year for Australian hotel operators.

Read more »

Couple at an airport waiting for their flight.
Travel Shares

What are Macquarie's top 3 ASX stock picks in the travel sector?

If you are looking for exposure to the travel sector, then it could be worth listening to what Macquarie Group…

Read more »

Happy woman trying to close suitcase.
Travel Shares

Should I buy Web Travel Group, Corporate Travel Management or Flight Centre shares?

Do analysts think these shares are buys? Let's find out.

Read more »

A woman ponders a question as she puts money into a piggy bank with a model plane and suitcase nearby.
Travel Shares

$10,000 invested in Qantas shares 5 years ago is now worth…

Investors would have done well to heed Warren Buffett’s advice and bought Qantas shares five years ago.

Read more »

Paper aeroplane going down on a chart, symbolising a falling share price.
Travel Shares

Flight Centre shares haven't traded this low since the pandemic, what's going on?

The Flight Centre share price has suffered over the years. It continues to hit turbulence

Read more »

a gloved hand with a fur lined jacket attached holds a small toy aeroplane against a frozen white, icy backdrop.
Travel Shares

A changing of the guard at Corporate Travel Management

Corporate Travel Management will have a new CEO in June.

Read more »

Woman on a tablet waiting in for her flight in an airport and looking through a window.
Travel Shares

Down 32% in a year, can Flight Centre shares rebound in 2025?

A leading expert runs his slide rule over the Flight Centre share price.

Read more »

A woman ponders a question as she puts money into a piggy bank with a model plane and suitcase nearby.
Travel Shares

Will Qantas shares fly back above $10 in 2025?

Will Qantas shares take off back to new all-time highs in 2025?

Read more »