The 12 months have been very difficult for ASX lithium stocks once again.
Over the period, the likes of Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO), IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO), Liontown Resources Ltd (ASX: LTR), Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN), and Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) have crashed deep into the red.
Here's a summary of how these shares have performed:
- The Core Lithium share price is down over 60%
- The IGO share price is down approximately 50%
- The Liontown share price is down over 50%
- The Mineral Resources share price is down 67%
- The Pilbara Minerals share price is down 54%
The catalyst for this has been weak lithium prices caused by a combination of oversupply of the white metal, softer than expected demand, and the emergence of low cost lepidolite in China.
This has weighed heavily on the financial performance of lithium miners. So much so, some companies have had to shut mines to conserve cash.
But is the worst over and will lithium prices rebound soon?
Let's look at what analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting for three widely used lithium types (lithium carbonate, lithium spodumene, and lithium hydroxide) through to 2028.
Recent lithium prices
In order to give you an understanding of how far lithium prices have fallen, let's start by looking at what lithium prices averaged during 2023 and 2024:
They were as follows:
- Lithium carbonate – China: 2023 US$32,694 per tonne, 2024 US$11,167 per tonne,
- Lithium hydroxide – China: 2023 US$32,452 per tonne, 2024 US$10,083 per tonne
- Spodumene 6%: 2023 US$3,712 per tonne, 2024 US$974 per tonne
Current spot prices
Now let's have a quick look at the current spot prices of these metals. They are as follows:
- Lithium carbonate – China: US$9,147 per tonne
- Lithium hydroxide – China: US$8,560 per tonne
- Spodumene 6%: US$815 per tonne
Lithium forecasts through to 2028
Unfortunately for investors in the battery materials space, Goldman Sachs doesn't believe lithium prices will be rebounding to 2023 levels any time soon, if at all.
It is forecasting the following:
Lithium carbonate – China:
- 2025: US$11,000 per tonne
- 2026: US$13,250 per tonne
- 2027: US$15,646 per tonne
- 2028: US$17,077 per tonne
- Long-term: US$15,965 per tonne
Lithium hydroxide – China:
- 2025: US$12,500 per tonne
- 2026: US$14,275 per tonne
- 2027: US$16,146 per tonne
- 2028: US$17,327 per tonne
- Long-term: US$15,965 per tonne
Spodumene 6%:
- 2025: US$800 per tonne
- 2026: US$969 per tonne
- 2027: US$1,155 per tonne
- 2028: US$1,264 per tonne
- Long-term: US$1,185 per tonne
