Owning Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares has been very rewarding for dividends in the last few years thanks to a relatively high iron ore price and strong operational performance.
The company's latest financial result was for the six months ending 31 December 2024, which included a significant decline in profit.
Fortescue reported that its revenue declined 20% to US$7.64 billion, underlying profit fell 38% to US$3.64 billion, attributable net profit sank 53% to US$1.55 billion, and the dividend per share was cut by 54% to AU 50 cents per share.
That dividend payout represented 65% of the FY25 first half's net profit – the same as HY24. The payout ratio is consistent with the company's dividend policy to payout between 50% to 80% of full-year underlying net profit.
After seeing a difficult period in the first half of FY25, what could the dividends be like for the full-year report and the upcoming financial years? Let's have a look at what UBS thinks.
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FY25 forecast for Fortescue shares
The broker UBS noted that it's cautious on the outlook for iron ore, weaker earnings, and free cash flow at a time when Fortescue is investing significantly in capital expenditure, which is a "risk to returns".
UBS said Fortescue's result and the interim dividend were soft compared to expectations.
However, the broker thinks there could be broker upgrades on the ASX mining share if the iron ore price holds at close to US$110 per tonne. UBS was estimating an iron ore price of US$100 per tonne in the third quarter of FY25 and US$99 per tonne in the second half of FY25.
With that in mind, let's have a look at what the dividend expectations may be in the coming years.
For the 2025 financial year, UBS is projecting Fortescue could pay an annual dividend per share of A$1.02. That would mean an FY25 final dividend of 52 cents per share.
Next, FY26
The 2026 financial year could see the company deliver a slight rise in profitability.
However, the increased earnings may still see the company reduce its dividend per share to 99 cents. Of course, it's possible the payout may not be as good.
UBS suggests that Fortescue could pay an annual dividend per share of 99 cents in FY26.
Then, FY27
The 2027 financial year could be the worst year in this series of projections in terms of profit and dividend.
UBS forecasts Fortescue could pay an annual dividend per share of 73 cents.
After that, FY28
The broker UBS is forecasting the business could start seeing a recovery at the end of the 2020s decade.
Fortescue's net profit could rise by 17% in FY28, which could then fund a rise in the Fortescue dividend to 77 cents per share. Of course, the business' performance will be largely dictated by the iron ore price.
Finally, FY29
The last year of these projections could deliver pleasing progress for shareholders.
Fortescue could generate its most profit since FY24 in the 2029 financial year. It's projected to make $3.85 billion in net profit and pay an annual dividend per share of 85 cents.
Seeing rising dividends would be a pleasing trend, in my view.
