If you are wanting to gain exposure to the booming gold price, then Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL) shares could be the way to do it.
That's the view of analysts at Goldman Sachs, which believe the ASX 200 gold stock is still cheap at current levels.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX 200 gold stock?
Goldman notes that Bellevue Gold released its half year results last week and delivered an operating profit ahead of expectations. It said:
BGL reported underlying NPAT of A$12mn, nominally in-line with GSe. Implied underlying EBITDA of ~A$90mn was above GSe on lower opex.
The broker was also pleased with its guidance for FY 2025, which has been reaffirmed. It adds:
FY25 production guidance remains 150-165koz where we forecast ~152koz (unchanged), with AISC guidance to A$1,900-2,100/oz (GSe ~A$2,115/oz). BGL target 5,000m of development advance in both 3Q (>1,700m achieved in January) and 4Q, for ~300kt and ~350kt of mined ore respectively on an increase from 5 to 7 mining fronts with 6 jumbos fully operational (GSe remains below).
BGL continues to expect this to be back ended at a ~200koz pa run rate by 4Q FY25. Beyond FY25, BG's 5-year growth plan remains for an accelerated expansion to 1.6Mtpa processing capacity driving gold production to ~250kozpa from FY28E and lowering AISC to ~A$1,500-1,600/oz (GSe a more prolonged ramp up to ~250kozpa and above 5yr AISC guidance).
Big potential returns
In response to the results, Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its buy rating and $1.50 price target on the ASX 200 gold stock.
Based on its current share price of $1.18, this implies potential upside of 27% for investors over the next 12 months.
Goldman highlights that based on its long term gold forecast, the company's shares are trading at a discount to peers.
And while it acknowledges that its free cash flow (FCF) is being held back by accelerated capital expenditure, it believes it won't be long until there is a big improvement. This could even mean that capital returns aren't too far away. The broker concludes:
On our LT gold price of US$2,300/oz, BGL is trading at ~0.9x NAV or pricing in US$2,160/oz (peer average ~1.1x NAV and ~US$2,360/oz). While near-term FCF yields are impacted by the accelerated development spend, we see these returning to double digits in FY26E, and remaining attractive vs. peers, supporting upside to the outlook for possible future capital returns once the expansion ramps up (despite ~25-30% of medium-term gold sales being hedged at ~A$2,700-2,900/oz, and 31.5koz of A$3,500/oz puts in FY25).
