S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy shares are losing ground again today amid investor concerns that the oil price could keep sinking in 2025.
While lower energy costs are good news for motorists, transport companies and stocks like Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN), the slumping oil price has hammered ASX 200 oil and gas stocks.
Brent crude oil is trading for US$74 per barrel today. That's down from US$80 per barrel a year ago and down from highs north of US$91 per barrel in April.
Here's how these four leading ASX 200 energy shares have performed over the past year:
- Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are down 23.8%
- Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares are down 5.6%
- Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) shares are down 17.3
- Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) shares are down 21.6%
For some context, the ASX 200 has gained 11.8% over the 12 months.
And if the analysts at Citi have it right, the big Aussie oil and gas stocks could be in for more headwinds in the year ahead.
What is Citi's oil price forecast?
Bearing in mind that the Brent crude oil price was US$82.03 on 16 January and has slipped to US$74.44 today, Citi expects oil to continue to slide from here to trade between US$60 and US$65 per barrel in 2025 as supply growth exceeds demand growth.
As The Australian Financial Review reported, Citi forecasts that sanctions on Iran will cut some 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day from global production. And the broker also expects another production cut from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) this year.
But Citi believes that growing production from non-OPEC members, particularly the US, will outweigh these cuts and drive the oil price lower.
According to Francesco Martoccia, an energy strategist at Citi:
We remain strongly of the view that President Trump could ultimately prove to be a bearish influence on the oil market. Trump has consistently highlighted lower energy prices as the central solution to US inflation, interest rate, debt, and cost of living issues, and that this is a core issue for which he was elected.
The broker added that atop Trump's push to deregulate US energy markets, markets could see US oil capex stimulus measures introduced with Chris Wright taking the helm as the new US energy secretary.
Wright, the CEO of Colorado-based Liberty Energy, is a strong proponent of US dominance in global energy markets.
As for how this might impact the oil price and ASX 200 energy shares, Wright posted on LinkedIn, "I don't care where energy comes, as long as it is secure, reliable, affordable and betters human lives."
