5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

It looks set to be a tough start to the week for Aussie investors.

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On Friday, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) ended the week on a disappointing note. The benchmark index fell 0.4% to 8,294.1 points.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to sink

The Australian share market looks set to sink on Monday following a selloff on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 71 points or 0.85% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones was down 1.6%, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, and the Nasdaq sank 1.6%.

Oil prices jump

It could be a strong start to the week for ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) after oil prices jumped on Friday. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 3.6% to US$76.57 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 3.7% to US$79.76 a barrel. Traders were buying oil in response to sweeping sanctions on the Russian oil industry.

Jumbo named as a buy

The Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) share price could be good value according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has retained its buy rating and $16.50 price target on the online lottery ticket seller's shares. It said: "We believe the market has priced in negative earnings growth for FY25 following a record FY24 for Lottery Retailing TTV. JIN trades at a historically low 10x NTM EV/EBITDA and 19x P/E. We believe this presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to the global lottery digital penetration thematic."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a relatively good start to the week after the gold price pushed higher on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 0.9% to US$2,715 an ounce. The gold price rose on Trump policy uncertainty.

Buy QBE shares

Goldman Sachs has held firm with its buy rating and $22.50 price target on QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) shares despite concerns over its exposure to wildfires in Southern California. It said: " QBE has been reducing their exposure to California multi-peril lines across Commercial, Homeowners, Farmowners and Fire exposures with their market share almost halving from ~1.1% in 2021 to 0.6% in 2023 (GWP reducing while industry premium increased). These trends suggest to us that QBE's 2024 market share is likely lower than 2023."

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Woodside Energy Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group and Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Jumbo Interactive. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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