S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stocks have broadly enjoyed a strong year of outperformance amid a rapidly rising gold price.
The yellow metal kicked off 2024 trading for US$2,059 per ounce. On Wednesday afternoon, that same ounce was fetching US$2,646. That puts the gold price up almost 29% year to date.
The big surge in the price of bullion has thrown up some welcome tailwinds for Aussie gold miners.
Year to date, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold stocks – is up around 20.0%. That's more than twice the 8.9% gains posted by the ASX 200 so far in 2024.
With our eyes now firmly on 2025, we look at one gold producer tipped as a sell and another as a buy.
Time to take profits on this ASX 200 gold stock?
Starting with the sell side, we have Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL).
The Regis share price closed yesterday at $2.73, up a blistering 59% over the past six months. But Ord Minnett's Tony Paterno expects the miner will underperform some of its rivals in 2025 (courtesy of The Bull).
"Regis is a gold producer and explorer", said Paterno, who has a sell rating on the ASX 200 gold stock.
Paterno noted:
The company generated revenue of $1.263 billion in fiscal year 2024, an increase of 11% on the prior corresponding period. However, the company posted a statutory net loss after tax of $186 million, which was significantly more than the $24 million loss after tax in full year 2023.
Explaining that net loss and its ramifications, he added:
The 2024 loss was driven by pre-tax costs from closing the hedge book, hedge losses and non-cash impairments primarily related to its McPhillamys project. The company didn't declare a dividend.
Paterno concluded, "Regis is fully leveraged to the gold price, which can move in either direction. Other gold stocks appeal more at this stage of the cycle."
Which brings us to…
On the acquisition path
One ASX 200 gold stock you may wish to consider adding to your portfolio for 2025 is Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).
That's according to Bell Potter.
Northern Star shares closed yesterday, trading for $15.98 apiece. That sees the Northern Star share price up 21% in six months.
In September, the company issued FY 2025 guidance of 1.65 million to 1.80 million ounces of gold sold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of AU$1,850 to AU$2,100 per ounce.
Bell Potter also expects Northern Star's proposed AU$5 billion acquisition of DeGrey Mining Ltd (ASX: DEG) to support the share price longer term.
If Northern Star's acquisition of DeGrey proceeds to plan, the mining giant will own De Grey's low-cost, large-scale Hemi project, located in Western Australia. Annual gold production from Hemi is expected to be 530,000 ounces over its first 10 years.
Bell Potter has a buy rating on the ASX 200 gold stock with a $16.59 price target.
