The Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) share price has been a standout performer on the ASX this year, climbing nearly 30% in that time.
It hit 52-week highs of $7.48 per share on September 26 before retreating to its current level of $6.98 per share just after market open on Friday.
But the skies aren't all clear for Qantas, with new competition and a choppy geopolitical environment that has already impacted global travel routes.
Will Qantas shares continue to climb, or is the rally coming to an end? Let's see what the experts think.
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What's driving the Qantas share price higher?
The surge in the Qantas share price can be largely attributed to its full-year results in late August. The airline posted solid growth numbers.
Qantas revenues were up 10% to nearly $22 billion. And even though its profit before tax fell 16%, this was in line with analyst expectations.
Key contributors to the performance were Jetstar Group and the Qantas Loyalty business.
Jetstar's pre-tax profits were up 23%, whereas the Loyalty business grew 13% compared to the same time last year.
Management announced that Qantas could start paying dividends again by the second half of FY25. Experts had highly anticipated this move.
The airline also rewarded shareholders with a $400 million share buyback, which could have driven the Qantas share price higher.
Is there more room for growth?
Despite Qantas' impressive rally, some experts believe the stock still has room to grow.
Goldman Sachs has a buy rating on Qantas shares, with a price target of $8.05.
The broker forecasts that traffic capacity will be more than 100% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this financial year.
It says this could drive earnings per share (EPS) more than 74% higher than the pre-COVID era.
Despite this, Goldman removed Qantas from its APAC Conviction List earlier this week. A stock will be removed from this list "if the committee determines a name is no longer a top investment idea
across the APAC coverage".
Meanwhile, UBS is also optimistic about Qantas, setting a price target of $7.50 on the airline.
The investment bank points to Qantas' improved balance sheet, which should support the company's long-term growth.
Qantas is also rated a buy from consensus, according to CommSec.
Not all clear skies
It's not all blue skies and rainbows for the Qantas share price.
Recently, Virgin Australia announced that Qatar Airways will acquire a 25% stake in the airline, pending approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board.
The strategic partnership could increase competition in long-haul flight routes by opening up more than 100 international flight itineraries. This could pressure Qantas' profitability, although I'm sure consumers won't complain if ticket prices are lower.
Virgin Australia has also signalled plans to expand its operations and re-list on the ASX.
Time will tell what impact this has on the Qantas share price. For now, brokers still seem fairly positive.
Qantas share price takeaway
The Qantas share price has well and truly left the tarmac in 2024. Experts are fairly constructive on the airline moving forward, with a number of buy ratings.
It will be interesting to see what impact, if any, the move from Virgin and Qatar Airways has on Qantas' operations.
The stock is up 38% in the past 12 months.
