Are Coles or Woodside shares a better buy?

Should investors be more interested in energy or supermarkets?

| More on:
A woman ponders over what to buy as she looks at the shelves of a supermarket.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are both intriguing investments right now.

They are among the ASX's largest blue-chip shares and two of the most significant businesses in their respective industries in this region.

If I were considering investing in these companies, I'd want to weigh up a few different factors.

So, let's look at those areas.

Dividend yield

Large Australian companies are known for being generous with their dividends, and these two S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares are no exception.

We'll look at the projected payouts for FY25 because I think the future payments are more important than recent history.

According to the projections on Commsec, Coles is forecast to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.3% in FY25, while Woodside could pay an 8.1% yield.

Price/earnings ratio

Knowing the earnings multiple can help us compare the two businesses, even though they're in different industries. Having said that, a lower price/earnings (P/E) ratio doesn't necessarily mean one company is a better value than the other.

According to the forecasts on Commsec, the Woodside share price is valued at 14x FY25's estimated earnings and the Coles share price is valued at 22x FY25's estimated earnings.

It's typical for businesses in volatile and cyclical industries like energy to trade on a lower earnings multiple, while a defensive ASX share usually trades on a higher multiple. In my eyes, the difference in the earnings multiple explains a significant portion of the dividend yield shortfall.

Attractiveness of valuation

It's important to note that the FY25 earnings projections are just a snapshot of one year. The direction of profit in future years is important, too.

According to Commsec, Coles' profit is expected to grow by another 13.3% in FY26, while Woodside's profit is forecast to decline by 12%. Of course, those are projections only, and energy prices could change significantly in the next year or two.

I like that Woodside is investing in several projects, including Sangomar, Scarborough, Driftwood LNG, and Trion, which can unlock cash flow streams. With the Woodside share price down more than 30% in the past 12 months, I think the business could be a contrarian opportunity and maybe the better buy. However, it could be a higher risk, and I wouldn't make it an ultra-long-term holding. Now may be a good time to invest during the cycle of energy markets.  

Coles is a more straightforward investment. Its goal is to sell more items to more people. A rising population, food inflation, and the addition of more supermarkets are all helpful for sales and profit. It just needs to win customers ahead of Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW), Aldi, and IGA.

If I were a retiree or beginner investor, I'd choose Coles shares for the stability and steady growth of profit and dividends.

However, if I were a fund manager trying to outperform the market, I'd choose Woodside shares for the potential turnaround opportunity in the next two or three years, and the short-term elevated passive income.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Opinions

A happy older couple relax in a hammock together as they think about enjoying life with a passive income stream.
Dividend Investing

I'm considering buying 600 shares in this ASX 200 dividend gem to aim for $212 a month in passive income!

if you're after an income boost, consider this dividend beast.

Read more »

Smiling man working on his laptop.
Technology Shares

One ASX 100 share with an incredible growth path to buy today

Here's why I think this ASX 100 share is a screaming opportunity right now.

Read more »

Three people in a corporate office pour over a tablet, ready to invest.
ETFs

Should you buy these high-performing ASX ETFs today?

High returns don't always make for a sure thing...

Read more »

Two people comparing and analysing material.
Opinions

Are GQG or Magellan shares a better buy?

Both of these fund managers offer a compelling outlook.

Read more »

A young man sits at his desk with a laptop and documents with a gas heater visible behind him as though he is considering the information in front of him. about the BHP share price
Opinions

Why I'd buy these 2 ASX 200 stocks after seeing their reports

These two leaders are appealing options to me.

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Resources Shares

This is holding me back from buying BHP shares at 52-week lows

I've noticed a disturbing pattern with the Big Australian's shares...

Read more »

man on his phone in front of all his computer screens checking the market and the ASX 200
Opinions

Down nearly 15% in a month, is this ASX ETF ready for a bounce?

This ASX ETF looks interesting to me at the current price.

Read more »

High fashion look. glamor closeup portrait of beautiful sexy stylish Caucasian young woman model with bright makeup, with red lips, with perfect clean skin.
Retail Shares

Expert says furniture retailers are out and these ASX retail stocks are in

Bell Direct market analyst Grady Wulff says investment trends among ASX retail stocks have changed.

Read more »