Coles shares: buy, sell or hold?

Can this supermarket giant perform better than its big rival Woolworths? Let's break it down.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Earlier we looked at whether supermarket giant Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) is a buy, sell or hold.

This time it's time to break down what's happening with its big retail rival Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL).

Like Woolworths, Coles shares have performed poorly considering the current climate of consumers cutting back their spending down to the essentials.

The stock price is down 5.7% so far this year. But the valuation has been especially under pressure in recent weeks, plunging more than 15.3% since the start of August.

Is this S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) stock worth a run in your portfolio?

a woman ponders products on a supermarket shelf while holding a tin in one hand and holding her chin with the other.

Image source: Getty Images

'Compelling value' or shrinking dividend?

Once again, the answer is similar to Woolworths.

Only four out of 16 analysts currently surveyed on CMC Markets reckon Coles is a buy right now.

Meanwhile, seven rate it as a hold and five professionals recommend selling.

The Motley Fool's Sebastian Bowen is of the opinion that investors should take advantage of the low price to buy $10,000 worth of Coles shares as a defensive play.

"I think Coles is offering compelling value today," he said.

"Most consumer staples shares tend to be viewed as safe havens by investors. In Coles' case, this comes down to how vital the food and household essentials that the company provides are for its customers, regardless of the economic weather."

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) analysts are in the bearish camp, predicting the supermarket chain would miss analysts' forecasts.

"Our FY25/26 EPS remains 13% to 14% below Factset consensus," read its notes.

"At target price of $14.70, the TSR [total shareholder returns] is 2% and it is a sector-relative call with Coles having bottom quartile TSR amongst our coverage."

Over the 2023 financial year, Coles' debt pile grew and there is a distinct chance that could happen again in the current year.

"If profit falls and capital costs are high, the supermarket business may decide to pay a smaller dividend," said The Motley Fool's Tristan Harrison last month.

"Taking on more new debt, with a high-interest cost, to pay a larger dividend could be counterproductive for long-term success."

Coles currently pays a dividend yield of 3.94%, fully franked.

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Coles Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

A woman sniffs a glass of wine as part of a wine-tasting event.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Treasury Wine shares hit 10-year lows last week. So why are buyers stepping in now?

Treasury Wine shares just bounced from decade lows as bargain hunters return.

Read more »

A man sitting at his desktop computer leans forward onto his elbows and yawns while he rubs his eyes as though he is very tired.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why is this ASX stock crashing 60% today?

This stock is having a bad finish to the shortened week.

Read more »

Young boy in business suit punches the air as he finishes ahead of another boy in a box car race.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

Why this ASX giant's shares just hit the accelerator today

Eagers shares jump after announcing two new metro dealership deals.

Read more »

A happy young woman in a red t-shirt hold up two delicious burritos.
Broker Notes

Guzman Y Gomez shares just sank to new all-time lows. Time to buy?

A leading analyst provides his outlook for the battered Guzman Y Gomez share price.

Read more »

Part of male mannequin dressed in casual clothes holding a sale paper shopping bag.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

KMD Brands shareholders to be stung with a hugely discounted capital raise

The Rip Curl and Kathmandu owner also posted a first-half loss.

Read more »

Pieces of fried chicken.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

KFC owner Collins Foods shares sliding on Taco Bell exit

Collins Foods is saying goodbye to Taco Bell to focus on growing KFC.

Read more »

Man with his hand on his face reading a letter with bad news in it.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

This beaten-down ASX stock just secured a $550 million lifeline. So why is it falling?

Star Entertainment secures fresh funding, yet investors keep selling the stock.

Read more »

Stressed shopper holding shopping bags.
Consumer Staples & Discretionary Shares

What's going on with KMD Brands shares?

What's going on behind the scenes?

Read more »