BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have come roaring back over the past few months.
Fuelled by rebounding iron ore and copper prices over the past three months, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant are up 28% since 1 November.
Which begs the question, should ASX 200 investors snap up some shares before BHP releases its half-year results on Tuesday, 21 February?
To buy, or not to buy?
Whether BHP shares rise or fall following the release of the company's half-year results will hinge on a few key factors.
One of those is whether or not the miner meets consensus expectations (quoted by Goldman Sachs) of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$14.3 billion and net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$7.0 billion.
Those expectations have factored in that iron ore and copper prices were down sharply for much of the six-month reporting period. Both industrial metals rebounded in early November.
Any surprise to the upside of consensus expectations should see BHP shares march higher, while results falling short of expectations will likely see the miner's shares fall.
Another big influence on the share price will be the kind of forward-looking statements and earnings guidance provided by management. A positive outlook and guidance will help support the share price.
Of course, as long-term investors, we're more interested in the 12-month plus performance, rather than what happens on the day the results are released.
What's the longer-term outlook for BHP shares?
The ASX 200 miner derives the majority of its revenue from iron ore, with copper coming in at number two. Coal also still plays an important role.
On the coal front, while thermal prices may not retain the all-time highs hit in 2022, Russia's war in Ukraine and limited new supplies amid strong global demand should see coal prices remain elevated through the year.
Iron ore and copper prices have retraced some over the past few weeks, but both industrial metals remain well above their November lows. China's continuing reopening from its pandemic restrictions should help support prices in the months ahead.
BHP shares could also get a boost if its planned takeover of ASX 200 copper giant Oz Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL) goes through. That remains subject to shareholder and court approval.
As for tailwinds, BHP will continue to face elevated costs for skilled labour alongside higher energy and materials prices.
Though those higher costs aren't overly concerning to Don Hamson, managing director at Plato Investment Management.
"Despite the naysayers, Australian miners have continued to deliver strong dividends," Hamson recently told The Motley Fool. "Broadly speaking, we think this will continue into 2023. Income from the sector will remain strong, but we may not see the record dividends and special dividends seen in recent years."
Hamson noted that BHP shares have benefited from "a great demonstration of diversified revenues", including coal:
In FY22, it posted net profits of US$22.4 billion. That was up 64% on 2021 when many thought it was the peak for the 'Big Australian' because it was the top of the iron ore cycle. But last year, it was coal that provided a windfall, generating about US$9.5 billion for the company.
Whether it's before or after the ASX 200 miner reports its results on Tuesday, I agree with Hamson on this one.
BHP shares are worth considering adding to your long-term portfolio.
