Why did Macquarie just switch out ANZ for CBA shares?

Why does the top broker appear to favour the biggest big four bank over the smallest?

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Key points
  • It's been a big year for ASX 200 banks, with interest rates rising from record lows amid plenty of market turbulence
  • The CBA share price has outperformed that of ANZ amid the chaos 
  • Now, one top broker has reportedly favoured shares in the biggest ASX 200 bank over those of the smallest of the big four 

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares have been the worst performing S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) big four stock of this year so far – dumping 11% year to date.

Following such a tumble, one top broker has reportedly turned its back on ANZ in favour of shares in banking peer Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA). The CBA share price has lifted more than 4% since the start of 2022.

For comparison, the ASX 200 is down 5% year to date. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index (ASX: XFJ) has slumped 2%.

So, why has Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) reportedly swapped the big four banks' positions in its model portfolio? Let's take a look.

Group of thoughtful business people with eyeglasses reading documents in the office.

Image source: Getty Images

Why did Macquarie swap ANZ shares for CBA?

Shares in the ASX 200's smallest big four bank have been dumped from Macquarie's model portfolio in favour of the index's largest banking stock, The Australian reports.

A model portfolio is a guide produced by an asset manager and provided to clients who can use it to build their own portfolio. Removing a company from a model portfolio doesn't necessarily mean a broker tips it as a sell.

Macquarie Research commented on the changes, courtesy of the publication:

The portfolio changes we have made are done to reduce exposure to earnings risks, while still trying to minimise exposure to highly valued stocks. We also reduce exposure to stocks that benefit from higher bond yields and rotate to 'bond proxies'. Our changes are also informed by what worked in past recessions.

It reportedly tips CBA as a quality bank share, directly replacing ANZ's shares with those of CBA in its model portfolio. Macquarie isn't the only broker seemingly more bearish on ANZ shares.

Morgans was said to have reduced its exposure to the big four banks, bar CBA, earlier this month, my Fool colleague Bernd reports. The broker apparently thinks their net interest margins (NIMs) have peaked amid a broader economic slowdown.

On the other hand, Citi was recently bullish on ANZ. It believes the stock could offer an 18% upside on its current price and growing dividends, as my colleague James reports.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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