The Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price has been on the up and up lately, driven by soaring coal prices.
A near-direct line can be drawn between the commodity's value and the company's bottom line. Whitehaven posted a record $1.95 billion profit and a realised average coal price of $325 a tonne in financial year 2022. Most of its revenue came from thermal coal sales.
Meanwhile, the coal producer's stock has jumped a blistering 292% since the start of 2022. The Whitehaven share price closed Friday's session at $10.82.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has posted an 11% fall in that time.
Does that mean the stock is nearing its ceiling? Let's take a look at what experts think could be in store for the ASX 200 coal favourite.
Can the Whitehaven share price continue its surge?
The Whitehaven share price has been beyond energised this year, and some experts think it could go even higher.
Though, not all are bullish.
Medallion Financial managing director Michael Wayne recently said, courtesy of Livewire, that he wouldn't be surprised if the stock offers short-term upside. However, looking further ahead, he tips it as a sell due to its cyclical nature and the risk a recession could bring to coal prices, saying "the long-term outlook for coal still remains clouded".
That sentiment echoes a similar warning from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ) analysts.
ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes recently warned that, while European demand has put upwards pressure on coal prices, increasing production in China could weigh on the commodity ahead of winter's peak.
But Hayborough Investment Partners' partner and portfolio manager Ben Rundle doesn't appear worried. He said, via Livewire:
The company is just absolutely making so much cash flow [and] … there's no supply-side response coming in the coal market. So, I think that price stays a lot higher for a lot longer.
The expert also noted the buyback currently underway at Whitehaven, saying it will likely support the company's share price.
Additionally, the federal government expects this financial year to be a record one for coal exports. They're expected to reach $120 billion, with thermal coal making up the majority.
Brokers' outlook
Turning to brokers, Macquarie expects big things from Whitehaven shares, slapping them with an outperform rating and a $12 price target, as my Fool colleague James reports. That represents a potential 10.9% upside.
The broker also believes the company could more than double its dividends this financial year, tipping it to offer $1.07 per share. That's expected to rise once again to $1.25 per share in financial year 2024.
Though, Goldman Sachs placed a neutral rating and a $9.60 price target on the stock back in August. The broker said it believes its Whitehaven shares are fairly valued and expects coal prices to fall in 2023.
