The value of Australia's combined coal exports is tipped to surge to $120 billion in financial year 2023, driving the nation's resource and energy exports to a record $450 billion — and plenty of S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares could cash in.
The findings were published in the Australian government's latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report.
It tips the value of the nation's thermal coal exports to surpass those of metallurgical coal during this fiscal year – reaching $62 billion and $58 billion respectively. That's up from $46 billion and $66 billion respectively in financial year 2022.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) – hosting the market's largest coal shares – is among the market's best-performing sectors right now. It's gaining 3.2% compared to the benchmark index's 2.39% lift.
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Aussie coal exports tipped to reach all-time high in FY23
Surging commodity prices will likely drive Aussie exports to a new record, according a report from the Department of Industry, Science, and Resources. And coal will be one of the major contributors.
Record thermal coal prices are expected to see $62 billion worth of the electricity-generating commodity exported in financial year 2023 – up from $46 billion in the previous year.
After averaging at US$333 a tonne in 2022, the thermal coal price is tipped to fall to US$125 a tonne in 2024. Though, that's still well above historical averages.
It also faces potential boosts from the European energy crisis and possible La Niña-driven flooding in eastern Australia
An increase in thermal coal exports will likely offset the falling value of Australian metallurgical coal, otherwise known as coking coal.
The price of coking coal – mainly used to make steel – is forecast to average at nearly US$400 a tonne in 2022. After that, it's tipped to fall amid normalising supply chains, reaching US$220 a tonne by 2024.
That means Aussie exports of the commodity are expected to fall from $66 billion in financial year 2022 to $58 billion in financial year 2023.
ASX 200 coal shares cashing in
Of course, what's good news for coal is generally good news for ASX 200 coal shares. They're all trading higher following the report's release.
Shares in coal producer New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) are surging 5.16% right now.
Most of New Hope's earnings come from thermal coal. Though, it's got its eye out for opportunities in coking coal.
Meanwhile, the Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) share price is up 3.61% at the time of writing. The company produces both thermal and metallurgical coal.
Finally, the share price of coal producer Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN) is up 3.28%.
Most of the company's business is in coking coal. The commodity represented 96% of the company's coal revenues in the first half of 2022.
