The Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) share price has seen plenty of volatility over the last few months.
Let's look at how the ASX mining share has performed.
In the three months to September 2022, the Rio Tinto share price dropped 9%. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) only fell by 1.4% over those three months.
In October to date, Rio Tinto shares have gone up by 3.5%. The ASX 200 has gone up by 4.5% this month.
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What could be next for the ASX mining share?
Over the last six months, it has declined by around 18%. Why?
It's important to remember that the ASX mining share is a (very large) commodity-focused business that relies on selling commodities to customers. Higher revenue because of the resource price should mean more profit, a lower resource price should mean less profit. The Rio Tinto share price can be moved by investors on expectations about its profit.
The iron ore price has been drifting lower over the last few months – not good news for Rio Tinto shares.
While Rio Tinto is involved with other commodities, such as copper, its iron ore business has been the crown jewel in terms of generating profit in recent times. So, it seems that investors are expecting lower profitability for Rio Tinto in the shorter term.
But, the price of the commodity is only one part of the equation. The amount of production is the other main factor. If the price of the commodity stays the same, but Rio Tinto lifts its production by 5%, then the revenue can grow.
Rio Tinto is scheduled to release its 2022 third-quarter production report on 18 October 2022. Depending on whether the production meets expectations or not, the Rio Tinto share price could react positively or negatively. Only time will tell what the actual numbers are and how the market reacts.
Is the Rio Tinto share price a buy?
Different experts have different opinions on the ASX mining share.
For example, the broker Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating on the business with a price target of $118.50. That implies a possible rise of more than 20% over the next year if the broker is right.
The broker thinks that it's a good move by Rio Tinto to expand in lithium because of the expected long-term growth in demand, plus the ASX mining share could expand its presence in the lithium value chain.
However, then there's a broker like UBS which is not so optimistic about the short-term future of the Rio Tinto share price. It has a price target of just $90. That implies that the miner could fall by another 7%.
