The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price staged a remarkable recovery in the quarter just gone by.
From the closing bell on 30 June through to the end of trade on 30 September, shares in the flying kangaroo soared 12.3%.
That's particularly impressive given the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fell 1.4% over the quarter.
The Qantas share price is up 5.4% so far in October, and is currently trading at $5.29.
So, what can ASX 200 investors expect next from the airline?
Tackling rising costs
If you think filling up the family car is costing you a bundle these days, take a gander at what Qantas is shelling out for jet fuel.
As The Motley Fool reported recently, the airline is forecasting a $5 billion fuel bill for FY23. That's up 60% from FY19.
But that won't necessarily have a negative impact on the Qantas share price.
The company is tackling rising fuel and other costs via a number of initiatives. That includes reducing its number of flights, with domestic capacity recently cut by another 10%. That means fuller flights, which may not be the best news for passengers. But it should enable Qantas to recoup the cost of higher jet fuel costs.
While international capacity is likely to remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels over the coming year, domestic capacity is forecast to reach 95% of pre-pandemic levels in the current half and 106% of those levels in the second half of FY23.
A premium on the Qantas share price 'is warranted'
Tony Paterno, senior investment adviser at Ord Minnett, has a bullish outlook for the Qantas share price.
According to Paterno (courtesy of The Bull), "Our positive view of QAN is supported by a favourable Australian industry structure that should lead to market share gains."
Paterno added:
Given its superior domestic market structure and share, a restructured and more variable cost base, a strong balance sheet and potential upside from the loyalty program, we believe a premium for Qantas is warranted.
Indeed, the loyalty program has the potential to help support the Qantas share price.
The airline forecasts FY23 underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) from its loyalty division will lift to between $425 million and $450 million.
