The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has enjoyed a big lift over the past month.
Shares in the flying kangaroo are down 0.59% in morning trade today. And despite sliding 4% since last Tuesday's close, Qantas shares are up 11.3% since this time last month.
With those gains already in the bag, have would-be investors missed the flight?
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Pent-up demand and beating expectations
While you won't find a unanimous thumbs up for investing in Qantas at today's share price, the majority of analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline.
Among them, Wilsons head of investment strategy, David Cassidy.
Cassidy recommends looking at what's motivating consumers to spend, saying Wilsons prefers service companies including Qantas shares "which should benefit from pent-up demand for these services after COVID restrictions".
Now, as you're likely aware, the airline has been posting massive losses since the onset of the pandemic saw its fleet grounded. While revenues have been recovering alongside air travel, Qantas posted a $1.9 billion loss for the 2022 financial year (FY22).
Yet that didn't stop it from announcing a $400 million on-market share buyback. That's helped lift Qantas shares, even as the company struggles with a shortage of skilled labour and a pending 24-hour strike from its ground handlers next Monday.
The share buyback also caught the attention of analysts at UBS.
UBS retained its buy rating for Qantas shares and lifted its price target to $6.80, some 34% higher than the current $5.07 per share.
The analysts said the airline's FY22 results beat their estimates. And they said the $400 million share buyback showed management is confident with the outlook.
Investors in any airline would also do well to run their slide rule over fuel prices, with jet fuel counting amongst the industry's biggest expenses.
While oil prices are still above long-term trends, Brent crude has fallen from US$121 per barrel as recently as 14 June to US$95 today. Should oil prices continue to moderate, that would generate some welcome tailwinds for the Qantas share price.
How have Qantas shares been tracking longer term?
Qantas shares have yet to recover to their pre-pandemic levels, with the share price down 10.2% over the past five years. That compares to a 21% gain posted by the ASX 200 over this same period.
