Why Qantas shares flew into turbulence in July

Investors sent Qantas share sharply lower in July. But why?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) climbed 2.3% in July, but Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares lost altitude.

Shares in the ASX 200  airline stock closed out June trading for $10.62. When the closing bell sounded on 31 July, shares were changing hands for $9.95.

This saw the Qantas share price down 6.3% for the month just past.

Here's why investors look to have been favouring their sell buttons.

A female cabin crew member on a place looks like she has a headache.

Image source: Getty Images

Qantas shares slide on oil price rebound

The biggest headwind for Qantas shares in July was the near 26% rebound in global oil prices over the month.

On 1 July, Brent crude oil traded at US$71.55, according to Bloomberg data. By 31 July, the oil price had surged to US$90.12 per barrel.

Aside from the acquisition of new aircraft, fuel counts as the airline's top variable cost.

As you may recall on 26 February – days before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict – Qantas reported that it expected to spend around $2.5 billion on jet fuel in the second half of the 2026 financial year (H2 FY 2026).

But on 14 April, as global oil prices soared amid the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, the ASX 200 airline increased it H2 jet fuel cost guidance to between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion. Or potentially $800 million more on jet fuel costs than it had expected just six weeks earlier.

So, July's 26% oil price leap did not go unnoticed by the market.

What else happened with the ASX 200 airline stock in July?

Qantas shares were in the headlines in the latter week of July amid a historic milestone.

Specifically, the company's new Airbus A350-1000ULR made its maiden non-stop test flight from its production facility in Toulouse, France, to Melbourne. The aircraft then returned to France, again without touching down to refuel.

That's part of Qantas' Project Sunrise, which will offer non-stop flights between Sydney and London, commencing in October 2027. Qantas reports that passenger travel time will be reduced to less than 22 hours, saving up to four hours compared with the fastest one-stop services currently available.

The first commercial flights from Sydney to London are scheduled to take off in October 2027.

Qantas will also offer non-stop flights between Sydney and New York. The company said it will reveal the timing of those new services next year.

In the first day and a half of trade in August, Qantas shares have lifted 3.5%.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Travel Shares

Happy couple looking at a phone and waiting for their flight at an airport.
Travel Shares

Why I'd invest $10,000 into Qantas shares today

I think the current valuation gives investors more room to absorb some of the risks that come with owning an…

Read more »

A woman reaches her arms to the sky as a plane flies overhead at sunset.
Dividend Investing

Looking to bank the final Qantas dividend? You'd better hurry!

Here’s what you need to know to bank the final Qantas dividend.

Read more »

A smiling woman in a hat holding a ticket takes selfie inside a Qantas plane next to the window.
Dividend Investing

How many Qantas shares do I need to buy for $5,000 of passive income in FY27?

Suspended during the global pandemic, Qantas shares resumed paying dividends in 2025.

Read more »

Man on a plane using a laptop with headphones on.
Travel Shares

Corporate Travel Management recently resumed trading – Here's why it could be a buy

After falling 80% - could it be a buy?

Read more »

One hundred dollar notes blowing in the wind, representing dividend windfall.
Travel Shares

Here's the dividend forecast out to 2029 for Qantas shares

Can the Qantas dividend fly higher in the years ahead? Or is it grounded?

Read more »

Front view of aircraft in flight.
Travel Shares

Corporate Travel Management shares crashed 80% on their first day back. What happened?

Here is what the long-delayed FY26 accounts revealed.

Read more »

Smiling woman looking through a plane window.
Broker Notes

This buy-rated ASX travel stock could deliver a 30% return: Broker

Strong demand has led to a recent upgrade for this company.

Read more »

ASX board.
Travel Shares

Corporate Travel Management shares resume trading after FY26 report

Corporate Travel Management shares are trading again after submitting its FY26 report, giving investors new information to weigh up.

Read more »