The past few years ASX investors have seen the COVID-19 pandemic and a war in Ukraine unexpectedly rattle their portfolios.
So what's the next surprise that could rock ASX shares?
One expert reckons social unrest is "likely" to become the next big issue for investors as the calendar heads towards the northern winter.
DeVere Group chief executive Nigel Green warned that the risk of "large-scale social unrest" is a headwind that is being largely overlooked at the moment.
"The global cost of living crisis is the major contributing factor," he said.
"When people can't feed their families, get to work or take their kids to school due to high fuel prices, or heat their homes, it's an almost inevitable recipe for large-scale civil unrest."
Image source: Getty Images
A winter energy crisis is coming
Europe is in a precarious economic state as it deals with the withdrawal of a huge energy source in Russia.
A combination of economic sanctions and Russia's retaliation for those very penalties has led to the Nord Stream gas pipeline to be supplying only 20% of capacity.
With a cold winter looming, an entire continent is about to suffer in ways Australians can only imagine.
"Red-hot food and fuel prices are the most painful type of inflation," said Green.
"Should the prices of smart TVs jump, people can delay buying one. But they cannot stop feeding themselves or their families. Similarly, the costs of transportation make up the price of almost everything we buy."
Already several southern European countries are teetering on the brink of economic disaster. Political tension has bubbled up in Italy to levels not seen since the global financial crisis 14 years ago.
People will get angry when there's not enough to eat
Green warned that the world is building up to "a food availability crisis" next year.
"Soaring food and energy prices triggered, by unprecedented shipping backlogs or shortages of materials and labour, COVID lockdowns in China, and the war in Ukraine, known as 'the world's breadbasket; as it's one of the world's leading exporters of corn, wheat, barley and sunflower oil, amongst other staples."
The trouble is that once confidence is dented, the whole economy can get itself into a vicious circle that's difficult to get out of.
"The downturn in the property market, slower economic growth — which leads to more uncertainty, less business investment, more redundancies and less cash available for governments — all adds to a perfect storm scenario."
Ignoring social unrest could be 'a costly mistake'
All these factors mean that disruptions from social unrest are a real possibility.
But the trouble is that those in political and financial power have an incentive to talk up the situation, rather than point out the anger bubbling in the populace.
"Mass social unrest is not talked about enough, likely due to high-level political and commercial interests," said Green.
"However, if you're serious about protecting and growing your money over the next six months it should be a major concern. Not paying attention could be a costly mistake."
