Here's the good news about bear markets

The investment outlook now is better than 18 months ago, believe it or not. AMP's Dr Shane Oliver also names which assets will have the best chance for outperformance.

| More on:
A cute young girl lays on the floor with five teddy bears lying in a semicircle head to head with her as she clutches another teddy bear in one arm.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

As difficult as this year has been for ASX shares, other assets have suffered greatly too.

Whether you possess cryptocurrency, real estate, or even bonds, the chances are you've suffered losses in 2022.

Even for long-term investors, this is undoubtedly distressing.

But there is a bright side to the bear market, according to one expert.

Potential returns have actually risen in 2022

Applying some conservative assumptions, the team at AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) projected what returns would be like for ASX shares and other assets over the next five to 10 years.

And the findings were surprising.

Using this model, the return potential dipped below 5% in late 2020. But this year, in troubled times, that has risen to 7% per annum.

"This is partly due to a 1% higher medium-term inflation assumption, but the rest is due to the rise in interest rates, bond yields and yields on assets including shares over the last year," said AMP chief economist Dr Shane Oliver in a blog post.

"This is the silver lining to the cloud — or rather storm — that has hit investment markets."

This goes to show how a dip in ASX shares presents excellent buying opportunities.

"Bear markets are painful and are hard to predict, but they do push up the medium-term return potential of shares and so provide opportunities for investors."

It seems a minority of Australian investors are taking advantage of the current downturn.

According to research from comparison site Finder, 7% of Australians are investing "more adventurously" than they were six months ago.

According to Finder stock expert Kylie Purcell, for many younger investors, this could be their first experience of a bear market.

"Investing in shares during a market downturn can be daunting, especially for people with more aggressive portfolios or who have high-growth super funds," she said.

"[But] Warren Buffet said that it is wise for investors to be 'fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful'."

ASX shares are winners

Oliver surmised that ASX shares, due to their high dividend yields, stacked up well for the coming few years. Asian stocks were his pick for capital growth potential.

Return from bonds would remain poor and real estate would remain depressed due to rising interest rates.

He did have a caveat for his return projections.

"The main downside risk to our medium-term projections is that inflation trends even higher driving a further trend rise in interest rates, bond yields and yields on other assets (including property & infrastructure), resulting in an ongoing drag on capital growth."

Oliver implored investors to "have reasonable return expectations" for the coming period.

"Interest rates and investment yields are still historically low so [it's] unreasonable to expect sustained double-digit returns."

Investors should concentrate on acquiring investments with a certain characteristic, he added.

"Focus on assets with decent sustainable income flow as they provide confidence regarding future returns."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Investing Strategies

A mature aged man with grey hair and glasses holds a fan of Australian hundred dollar bills up against his mouth and looks skywards with his eyes as though he is thinking what he might do with the cash.
Dividend Investing

Here's how another $5,000 invested in this high-yield ASX 200 star could boost my dividend income over time!

This high-yield ASX 200 retailer has slipped under $1, but its dividend profile remains one of the strongest in the…

Read more »

People with their hands underneath each other's hands holding a plant.
Growth Shares

2 ASX growth shares I'd buy today for growth and income

Both of these businesses are delivering excellent progress.

Read more »

A man has a surprised and relieved expression on his face.
Growth Shares

These exciting ASX 200 growth shares could rise 60% to 100% in 2026

Analysts believe these shares could be dirt cheap and strong buys right now.

Read more »

Smiling woman with her head and arm on a desk holding $100 notes out, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

1 ASX dividend stock down 17% I'd buy right now

I’d happily do some pre-Christmas portfolio shopping with this ASX dividend stock.

Read more »

Man holding Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

These buy-rated ASX dividend shares offer 4% to 6% yields

Analysts are tipping these shares as buys for income investors.

Read more »

Military soldier standing with army land vehicle as helicopters fly overhead.
Growth Shares

After falling 50%, this under-the-radar growth stock looks like brilliant value to me

A big pullback and rising momentum make EOS one to watch.

Read more »

three businessmen high five each other outside an office building with graphic images of graphs and metrics superimposed on the shot.
Small Cap Shares

Why I think this ASX small-cap stock is a bargain at $4.26

I think this undervalued stock is going places.

Read more »

Young lady in JB Hi-Fi electronics store checking out laptops for sale
Dividend Investing

Buy these 2 ASX 200 retail shares for growth and income

Looking for dividends and growth? Have a look at these retail stocks.

Read more »