The Kogan.com Ltd (ASX: KGN) share price finished in the red today. Shares in the Australian e-commerce company slipped 1.4% to $6.17.
For three weeks now, the Kogan share price has been roughly bouncing between $6.00 and $6.50. The initial breakdown below $7.00 per share followed the release of its first-half trading update last month.
Disappointingly, active customer growth had slowed to 10% year-on-year (YoY). Likewise, gross sales were up 9% YoY to $698 million. For reference, these metrics are down from 77% and 96%, respectively, in the previous year.
ASX investors might take heed of warnings disclosed by Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) last night. If the situation for the US-based e-commerce company is anything to go by, the Kogan share price might be in for more challenging times.
Let's take a closer look at what was disclosed in Shopify's full-year results.
Pandemic-fuelled growth expected to fade in year ahead
Much like ASX-listed Kogan, Shopify posted growth for the latest period across many of its headline figures. These included:
- Revenue up 41% to US$1,380 million in the fourth quarter
- Gross merchandise volume (GMV) growing by 31% to US$54.1 billion
- Monthly recurring revenue increasing 25% to $102 million
However, the forward outlook from the company created some concerns for shareholders. Due to the absence of government stimulus and inflation, Shopify is forecasting some tapering in growth ahead.
The e-commerce giant is now forecasting FY22 revenue growth to be lower than the 57% increase witnessed in FY21. Investors were clearly displeased with the outlook as the Shopify share price tumbled 16% on the news.
On the earnings call, Shopify chief financial officer Amy Shapero said:
For 2022, we expect year-over-year revenue growth to be lowest in the first quarter of 2022 and highest in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to three factors. First, we do not expect the COVID-triggered acceleration of e-commerce in the first half of 2021 from lockdowns and government stimulus to repeat in the first half of 2022.
The other two reasons given by Shapero were more specific to the company's platform headwinds.
For Kogan shareholders, the uninspiring forecast lands only eight days out from its own earnings call. The local e-commerce company plans to announce its results for the first half of FY22 on Friday, 25 February. At that time, shareholders will find out what ASX-listed Kogan is expecting for its own future.
How has Kogan performed on the ASX?
Unlike Shopify, Kogan has the added strain of managing physical inventory. The challenging environment created by COVID-19 contributed to the company being strapped with excess inventory. This led to higher warehousing costs for the Aussie e-commerce company.
As demand dwindled, while supply was high, investors hammered the sell button on the Kogan share price. In turn, the company's shares have sunk 62% in the past year. Meanwhile, the Shopify share price is down 47.6% over the same time period.
