Why this broker sees 23% upside for the NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) share price

Is it time to buy NEXTDC's shares?

The NEXTDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) share price was out of form in September.

Weakness in the tech sector led to the data centre operator's shares falling 9% during the month.

This means the NEXTDC share price is now down 16% from its 52-week high.

Cloud upload icon on smartphone screen representing digital investment and online trading solutions.

Digital cloud upload symbol illustrating modern online investing via Fool Australia platform.

Is the NEXTDC share price in the buy zone?

One broker that is likely to see the recent weakness in the NEXTDC share price as a buying opportunity is Morgans.

According to a recent note, the broker has an add rating and $14.64 price target on its shares.

Based on the current NEXTDC share price of $11.86, this implies potential upside of 23% over the next 12 months.

What did Morgans say?

Morgans was pleased with the company's performance in FY 2021 and its outlook for the year ahead.

It commented: "NXT's FY21 result was slightly better than guidance and our forecasts. FY22 revenue and EBITDA guidance is in line with market expectations. For both years growth was/is expected to be 20-30% pa. It was a good year and a good outlook."

However, it is the company's long term outlook that makes Morgans particularly bullish on the NEXTDC share price.

The broker explained: "We retain our Add recommendation and highlight that NXT remains our preferred pick. We see a clear pathway for long-term growth, substantially higher EBITDA and material free cash flow, over the medium term. In the shorter term we think there are catalysts to continue driving the share price higher."

One of those catalysts is the massive structural growth of cloud and digitisation which continues to require significant digital infrastructure. Morgans notes that NEXTDC is a key supplier at the forefront of this trend.

As a result, it feels there is a high likelihood of Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) exercising the options they have for capacity within its centres.

It commented: "MW contracted but not yet billing and BAU sales through the channel unpin NXT's capacity to generate ~$200m of EBITDA in FY23. With new facilities coming online and management continuing to invest in growing and evolving the business, our forecast is for $186m (with upside risk). Options with CSPs could push this to $300m (assuming 100% billing)."

Morgans appears to believe this could cause a significant rerating of the NEXTDC share price if the bullish case plays out.

All in all, this could make it worth considering NEXTDC as a long term investment.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro owns shares of NEXTDC Limited. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

Young woman thinking with laptop open.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Liontown, Ramsay Healthcare, ANZ shares

Let's take a look at some new ratings on three ASX 200 shares.

Read more »

A young woman uses an application in her smart phone to check currency exchange rates in front of an illuminated information board.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: ResMed, Origin Energy, Reece shares

A broker has had its say on these three shares.

Read more »

Woman holding her glasses and looking at her laptop.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: PLS Group, Woolworths, CSL shares

Let's check out some new ratings on these ASX 200 heavyweights.

Read more »

Business man marking buy on board and underlining it.
Broker Notes

Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Brokers believe that now could be the time to buy these shares.

Read more »

Man smiling ahead while working on his MacBook.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Liontown, Suncorp, and Wesfarmers shares

Let's see what a leading broker is saying about these shares.

Read more »

Smiling man sits in front of a graph on computer while using his mobile phone.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

Man stands with head on his hands in front of a downward graph.
Broker Notes

6 ASX shares experts see as buying opportunities in a weaker market

Brokers have a positive stance on PLS, Mineral Resources, Goodman Group, and other shares.

Read more »

A young man wearing a black and white striped t-shirt looks surprised.
Broker Notes

10 ASX small caps that could "bounce" by the end of the year: Shaw & Partners

The broker argues these stocks have been oversold, and are looking cheap.

Read more »