Up 29% since April, should you buy NextDC shares today?

A leading analyst digs into the outlook for NextDC's rebounding shares.

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NextDC Ltd (ASX: NXT) shares are slipping today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) data centre operator and developer closed yesterday trading for $14.58. In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $14.49 apiece, down 0.6%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.9% at this same time.

Today's underperformance is not par for the course for this ASX 200 tech stock, with shares up 8.9% over the past year compared to the 3.5% 12-month gains posted by the benchmark index.

And savvy investors who bought NextDC shares at the one-year closing lows of $11.26 on 2 April will now be sitting on gains of 28.7%.

But following that strong six-week run higher, is the ASX 200 stock still a good buy today?

Buy, hold, and sell ratings written on signs on a wooden pole.

Image source: Getty Images

Should you buy NextDC shares now?

Dolphin Partners Financial Services' Arthur Garipoli recently ran his slide rule over the ASX tech stock (courtesy of The Bull).

"This global data centre operator recently raised capital via a 1 for 5.4 pro rata, non-renounceable rights issue to institutions and retail investors at $12.70 a share," Garipoli said.

"Proceeds of more than $1 billion will be used to construct data centres to meet rapidly growing demand from cloud computing customers," he added.

Despite the company's strong growth forecasts, Garipoli isn't ready to pull the trigger yet, issuing a hold recommendation on NextDC shares.

He concluded:

A compounded annual growth rate in operating earnings of more than 40% is expected between fiscal years 2025 and 2028, as contracted capacity translates to revenue and earnings going forward.

What's been happening with the ASX 200 tech share?

Atop the recent successful capital raising, Garipoli mentioned above, on 20 April, NextDC released an update for the three months to 31 March (3Q FY 2026).

Among the highlights for the quarter, NextDC reported a 60% increase in its contracted utilisation to 667 megawatts (MW). And management noted that NextDC's forward order book increased by 83% over the three months to 544MW.

The ASX 200 tech stock also reaffirmed its full-year FY 2026 underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance to be in the range of $230 million to $240 million.

The company also maintained its full-year revenue guidance in the range of $390 million to $400 million.

NextDC shares were in a trading halt on the day of the update due to the capital raising. Shares closed up 1.3% on 22 April following the resumption of trading on the ASX.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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