An ASX correction could be coming: Here's what to do

This is your guide to surviving a stock market dip, according to AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver.

| More on:
man thinking about whether to invest in bitcoin

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has lost about 3% from its most recent high about a month ago.

That would be 5% if it weren't for a mini-rally the past couple of days.

AMP Capital chief economist Dr Shane Oliver reckons "it's too early to say" whether the market has passed the bottom or if this is just the start of a correction.

The potential for giant Chinese real estate development company Evergrande to collapse had even brought out talks about it becoming a "Lehman Brothers moment" like in the global financial crisis.

"The wobbles in shares reflects a long worry list that has been building for a few months now," he said on the company blog.

"Sharp market falls with talk of 'Lehman moments' are stressful for investors as no one likes to see their investments fall in value."

Oliver does see the possibility of share markets suffering a correction this year, which is defined as a pullback of 10% or more from recent highs.

However, he reminded investors to keep an even-keeled mind during such times. Don't panic. 

In fact, he presented 7 things to remember to avoid getting caught up in the doom-and-gloom hype:

Corrections are 'healthy and normal'

According to Oliver, share market corrections happen regularly and they're nothing out of the ordinary.

"While they all have different triggers and unfold differently, periodic corrections in share markets of the order of 5%, 15% and even 20% are healthy and normal."

In fact, he presented a chart that showed the ASX 200 has had 10 dips of 5% or more in the past 10 years. Six of those were 10% or more.

"While share market pullbacks can be painful, they are healthy as they help limit complacency and excessive risk taking."

The second reason not to worry excessively is that a correction rarely turns into a major bear market unless it is accompanied by a recession.

Oliver did not think this was likely.

"While global growth is likely to slow in 2022 business surveys remain strong and global growth is still likely to be strong at around 4%," he said.

"In Australia, the delayed but now rapid vaccination program looks on track to allow a gradual reopening as we learn to live with higher levels of coronavirus through next quarter, avoiding recession ahead of much stronger growth next year."

Don't lock in your losses

Getting spooked by a correction and selling your shares is always a bad idea.

All that does is turn a paper loss into a real one, which has no chance of recovering.

"The best way to guard against deciding to sell on the basis of emotion after weakness in markets is to adopt a well thought-out, long-term strategy and stick to it."

Also, when stock prices have fallen that's a great chance to pick up some bargains.

"Look for opportunities' pullbacks provide," said Oliver.

"It's impossible to time the bottom but one way to do it is to average [them] over time."

The fifth reason to not overreact to a correction is that the market will often head opposite to how you feel.

"Shares and other related assets often bottom at the point of maximum bearishness, that is, just when you and everyone else feel most negative towards them. 

"So, the trick is to buck the crowd."

ASX yields are pretty good at the moment

OIiver said that ASX shares are handing out some excellent dividends this year, which will offset the pain from falling stock prices.

"The income flow you are receiving from a well-diversified portfolio of shares is likely to remain attractive, particularly against bank deposits."

And lastly, Oliver suggested "turning down the noise".

"In times of uncertainty, negative news can reach fever pitch. But it often provides no perspective and only adds to the sense of panic," he said. 

"All of this makes it harder to stick to an appropriate long-term strategy let alone see the opportunities that are thrown up."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Share Market News

Fancy font saying top ten surrounded by gold leaf set against a dark background of glittering stars.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Let's also take a look at what the various ASX sectors were doing this Wednesday.

Read more »

Two male ASX 200 analysts stand in an office looking at various computer screens showing share prices
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's what brokers are recommending as buys this week.

Read more »

A young women pumps her fists in excitement after seeing some good news on her laptop.
Share Gainers

Why Argosy Minerals, Immutep, Pointsbet, and Regis Resources shares are racing higher

These shares are having a strong session on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

A young man clasps his hand to his head with his eyes closed and a pained expression on his face as he clasps a laptop computer in front of him, seemingly learning of bad news or a poor investment.
Share Fallers

Why Chalice Mining, Cleanaway, Kogan, and Perpetual shares are sinking today

These ASX shares are having a tough time on Wednesday. But why?

Read more »

Man looking at his grocery receipt, symbolising inflation.
Share Market News

Why the ASX 200 just crumbled on today's inflation print

ASX 200 investors are hitting the sell button following the latest Australian inflation news.

Read more »

man grimaces next to falling stock graph
Share Fallers

Why did this ASX 100 stock just crash 11%?

Cleanaway shares have been on a crazy roller-coaster over the past 24 hours.

Read more »

a man in a british union jack T shirt hurdles high into the air with london bridge visible in the background.
Mergers & Acquisitions

Nick Scali shares halted amid $60m capital raising and UK expansion news

This furniture retailer has its eyes on the UK furniture market.

Read more »

An arrogant banker pleased with himself and his success winks at his mobile phone while taking a selfie
Share Market News

Are ASX 200 bank shares like CBA 'too expensive' right now?

Are banks overpriced or good value today?

Read more »