Why experts have high hopes for the IAG (ASX:IAG) share price

Stocks for the $13 billion insurance behemoth have gone sideways the past 5 years. So what's different now?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Shareholders of insurance giant Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG) haven't had much to cheer about the past few years.

The IAG share price is in the red in early trade on Tuesday after finishing 1.31% down Monday to close at $5.26. That's a 12.6% rise in the past 12 months, but a 3.8% descent in the past 5 years.

Hardly exciting for 'buy-and-hold' enthusiasts.

But while the COVID-19 Delta strain paralyses much of Australia, multiple experts are picking it as a bargain buy.

The Firetrail Australian High Conviction Fund last month revealed that it's one of the non-banking ASX finance shares that it's overweight on.

According to CMC Markets, 7 out of 11 analysts rate IAG shares as a "strong buy". One rates it as a "moderate buy".

And there are no analysts currently recommending to sell.

a person stands arms outstretched on the top of a mountain with a beautiful sunrise in the sky

Image source: Getty Images

Despite doubling its final dividend, IAG's financial results last month underwhelmed the market.

So why are fund managers so bullish?

Aberdeen Standard Investments head of Australian equities Michelle Lopez hinted at some of the tailwinds that currently make insurance stocks attractive.

"Looking forward, the premium rate cycle momentum is expected to persist for longer and the competitive environment remains rational, allowing insurers to earn-through pricing increases and restore margins," she posted last week on Livewire.

"Furthermore, outsized provisions that were booked by insurers like IAG for COVID business interruption claims continue to look conservative given the modest actual claims experience observed to date, as well as the conservative levels of risk margin that have been incorporated into these estimates."

Depending on how some legal cases play out, Lopez reckoned investors might see a rainbow next year.

"Insurers like IAG may benefit from provision releases and capital surpluses in 2022."

This may have already started playing out, with IAG revealing its cash earnings jumped 170% in last month's financial report.

"Another positive during the year was its reported insurance profit of $1,007 million, which is an increase of 35.9% over FY 2020," reported The Motley Fool's James Mickleboro.

"This was due mainly to lower natural perils costs, positive credit spreads, and a first-half COVID-19 benefit largely from lower motor claims in Australia. This translated to an improved reported insurance margin."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Insurance Australia Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles with a laptop open.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

A man in a business suit rides a graphic image of an arrow that is rebounding on a graph.
Broker Notes

Down 43% this week, are Cochlear shares now the best bargain buy of the year?

A leading analyst believes the historic selloff in Cochlear shares could present a unique buying opportunity.

Read more »

A smiling woman at a hardware shop selects paint colours from a wall display.
Broker Notes

Wesfarmers shares: Buy, hold or sell?

A leading analyst delivers his verdict on Wesfarmers shares.

Read more »

Businessman working and using Digital Tablet new business project finance investment at coffee cafe.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Cochlear, CSL, and DroneShield shares

Are these hugely popular shares in the buy zone or not? Let's find out.

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise ~40% to 80%

Brokers are predicting big returns for these top shares. Here's what you need to know.

Read more »

Person pointing at an increasing blue graph which represents a rising share price.
Broker Notes

2 ASX 200 stocks that could rise 50%

Morgans thinks the market is undervaluing these shares.

Read more »

Contented looking man leans back in his chair at his desk and smiles.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy right now

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Dollar sign in yellow with a red falling arrow in front of a graph, symbolising a falling share price.
Broker Notes

6 ASX 200 shares downgraded by brokers this week

Brokers have reduced their ratings on TechnologyOne, Macquarie, 4DMedical, and others this week.

Read more »