Own A2 Milk shares? Here’s what to look for during reporting season

The dairy producer’s shareholders have endured a torrid 12 months, with the stock falling 65%. Can the company turn the ship around?

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Long-term A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) shareholders sure have a right to be cranky, with the stock price falling more than 65% in just 12 months.

So now the ASX results season is coming, what should investors look out for?

Here are the big topics that you’ll want answers for on 18 August.

A2 Milk’s China deal

The big topic occupying investors at the moment is the dairy producer’s acquisition of Mataura Valley Milk.

The current majority owner of Mataura is China Animal Husbandry Group. It will retain a 25% ownership after the takeover, which A2 Milk reckons is a nice benefit.

“Investors can expect more updates on the acquisition when A2 Milk releases its full-year results in August,” said The Motley Fool’s Zach Bristow this week.

The Mataura acquisition has led a mini-revival of A2 Milk shares in recent weeks. The stock is up more than 10.7% in the past month.

A2’s daigou channel numbers

One of the big reasons for A2 Milk’s fall from grace is the complete collapse of the daigou sales channel after COVID-19 arrived last year.

International travel bans had killed off these private exporters from getting A2 Milk baby formula into the lucrative Chinese market.

But the rollout of coronavirus vaccines this year has seen daigou numbers pick up again.

“Daigou proxy is actually up for the 4th month in a row,” Shaw and Partners senior investment advisor Adam Dawes told Switzer TV Investing this week.

“In other words, moving towards increasing the number of exports of powdered milk to China.”

The August update from the company will feature the latest daigou numbers, which investors will be hoping will carry on the momentum.

2022 revenue projections

Investors already know the 2021 numbers won’t be great. This is already baked into the share price.

A2 Milk in May projected 2021 financial year revenue would be around $1.2 billion to $1.25 billion.

But the more interesting numbers for investors to look out for on 18 August would be the guidance for the current fiscal year.

In the 2020 financial year, the dairy producer racked up $1.6 billion in revenue.

Bell Potter senior industrial analyst Jonathan Snape this month stated A2 Milk could navigate its way back to those heights.

“While not without near-term risks as supply chains stabilise, at its core we see A2M as a business that, once (margin) is consolidated, has baseline revenue of NZ$1.4 billion to $1.5 billion and EBITDA of NZ$300m,” he said in a memo to clients.

“We do not see FY21 earnings as reflective of the returns the business can generate in the medium term.”

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Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo owns shares of A2 Milk. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended A2 Milk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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