Here’s why a big broker thinks you should avoid these ASX gold shares 

Citi thinks gold prices will peak in 2021 and fall in 2022. These ASX gold mining shares were downgraded to reflect lower gold prices.

| More on:
Gold Bullion Sinking 16.9

The gold spot price has pushed higher to almost US$1,900 after dipping as low as US$1756 in November.

Despite gold holding never before seen levels, and US Federal Reserve continuing to expand its balance sheet, Citi believes that gold prices will peak in 2021 and weaken through 2022.

Here are the ASX gold shares that have had share price targets adjusted to reflect lower gold prices. 

Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) 

The Newcrest Mining share price target was lowered  from $35.50 to $32.00 with a buy rating. Its shares are currently trading at $26.74, so the price target still represents an upside of 19%. 

Newcrest is Australia’s largest gold producer with one of the lowest all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in the world of just US$980 per ounce.

The company continues to explore a number of organic growth opportunities to leverage its low costs and current gold prices. This includes a secondary listing on the Toronto Stock exchange to support its growth strategy in the Americas and broaden its access to the large North American capital pool. 

Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX: SAR) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) 

Saracen and Northern Star are currently working through a proposed merger under which Northern Star will acquire all shares of Saracen. This merger is forecast to be completed by 15 February 2021. 

Saracen was upgraded from neutral to buy, but its share price target was lowered from $6.20 to $5.30 to reflect lower gold prices. The lower price target still represents a 13% upside to its price of $4.68 at the time of writing.

Northern Star was also upgraded from neutral to buy, with its price target lowered from $15.90 to $13.90. At its current price of $12.40, this represents an 12% upside. 

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) 

The Evolution Mining share price target was lowered from $5.50 to $4.90 with a neutral rating. This represents a downside of 2.4% to its current price of $5.02. 

Evolution is often regarded as one of the lowest cost gold producers in the world with its September quarter AISC of A$1,198 per ounce (US$857/oz). 

While the company’s growth might not be as explosive as Northern Star or Saracen, it has flagged that its Cowal and Red Lake projects will drive significant organic growth over the next three years.

Evolution delivered total gold production of 746,463 ounces in FY20 and looking ahead, expects to deliver: 

3-year outlook




Production (oz)

670,000–730,000 700,000–770,000 790,000–850,000

AISC ($/oz)2

1,240–1,300 1,220–1,280 1,125–1,185

Sustaining Capex ($/M)

112.5–137.5 110.0–135.0 95.0–120.0

Major Capital ($M)

260.0–290.0 250.0–280.0 220.0–260.0

Discovery ($M)

75.0–100.0 70.0–100.0 70.0–100.0

Wondering where you should invest $1,000 right now?

When investing expert Scott Phillips has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for over ten years has provided thousands of paying members with stock picks that have doubled, tripled or even more.*

Scott just revealed what he believes could be the five best ASX stocks for investors to buy right now. These stocks are trading at near dirt-cheap prices and Scott thinks they could be great buys right now.

*Returns as of January 12th 2022

Motley Fool contributor Lina Lim has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Gold

man grimaces next to falling stock graph

Newcrest (ASX:NCM) share price down 4% following Q2 update

Key points Newcrest delivers solid production growth in the second quarter Management expects this trend to continue in the second …

Read more »

a woman wearing a gold top and carrying a gold bar gives the thumbs down signal as she leans against a wall with a sombre look on her face.

ASX gold shares fall hard. Is now the time to buy?

Key points ASX gold shares broadly trailing the index Gold prices sliding Goldman Sachs releases bullish outlook for the yellow …

Read more »

plummeting gold share price
Earnings Results

Why is the Evolution (ASX:EVN) share price sinking 10% today?

Key points FY 22 guidance maintained Gold production slipped Cash in bank up The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share …

Read more »

a woman holds a gold bar in one hand and puts her other hand to her forehead with an apprehensive and concerned expression, on her face.

These ‘golden’ ASX shares weighed on the All Ordinaries Index today

Key points The gold sector dragged the All Ords Index lower on Monday, sliding 1.85% Its constituents were likely impacted …

Read more »

Rising gold asx gold shares share price buy represented by multiple hands grabbing at gold bullion

Want to buy gold? Here are 3 ways ASX investors can own the precious metal

Key points The gold price has been on the rise lately Many investors are looking to gold to diversify their …

Read more »

A woman in a business suit sits at her desk with gold bars in each hand while she kisses one bar with her eyes closed. Her desk has another three gold bars stacked in front of her. symbolising Alkane Resources's success at various mining sites
Broker Notes

Goldman Sachs tips 27% upside for the Northern Star (ASX:NST) share price

Key points Northern Star shares are rising on Friday despite the market selloff Goldman Sachs has reiterated its buy rating …

Read more »

share price plummeting down
Mergers & Acquisitions

Silver Lake (ASX:SLR) share price drops today following this bidding news

Key points Silver Lake declared successful bidder for Canada’s Harte Gold Company to acquire 2% net smelter royalty on the …

Read more »

A woman wearing a top of gold coins and large gold hoop earrings and a heavy gold bracelet stands amid a shower of gold coins with her mouth open wide and an excited look on her face.

Why is the Evolution Mining (ASX:EVN) share price surging 10% today?

Key points The Evolution Mining share price is currently trading 9.97% higher at $4.19 The gold producer’s stock might be …

Read more »