Analysis: Is the A2 Milk share price a buy before August?

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price has climbed in 2020 but will it hit a record high after its August full-year results?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) share price continues to kick goals for investors.

Shares in the Kiwi dairy group fell 2.1% lower yesterday but remain up 39.1% for the year. A $10,000 investment in A2 Milk in early April 2015 would be worth a tidy $348,214 today.

However, I prefer to look to the future instead of the past with my investments. That means I've got my eye on the A2 Milk share price ahead of its full-year earnings result on 19 August.

pouring glass of milk from glass milk bottle

Image source: Getty Images

Is the A2 Milk share price overvalued?

The A2 Milk share price is trading just 2.7% below its all-time high of $20.05. 

That could mean it has been overbought by investors seeking to get extra cash into the market. However, I think there are enough strong, underlying share price drivers to warrant further exploration.

What was in the half-year result?

There's also not too much that can be drawn from the company's February half-year results given the changing global landscape.

A2 Milk posted half-year revenue up 31.6% to $806.7 million with EBITDA climbing 20.5% to $263.2 million.

That result was underpinned by strong growth in China label infant nutrition and United States milk revenue. Given China's strong bounce back from the coronavirus pandemic, we could see further sales growth in these segments in August.

The company's April trading update also gave investors some confidence about the full-year numbers. A2 Milk reported strong sales revenue growth across all key regions despite uncertainty for both revenue and earnings forecasts.

A2 Milk's full-year EBITDA margin is expected to land between 31-32% for FY20. Currency impacts will also be worth watching given the volatility in the Australian, New Zealand and US dollars in 2020.

What is there to like about the A2 Milk share price?

One thing I like about the A2 Milk share price is its aggressive expansion plans. A2 Milk is looking to take the brand further abroad into the Canadian market.

Given its strong track record of strategy execution, I'm quietly hopeful about its Canadian plans.

A2 Milk has also continued to expand through increased investment in Synlait Milk Ltd (ASX: SM1).

A2 Milk now owns 19.84% of its fellow Kiwi dairy producer. While I wouldn't call that diversification as such, I think it could generate a new growth corridor for A2 Milk going forward.

I also think recent strong supermarket sales bode well for a robust A2 Milk result in August.

Foolish takeaway

All in all, I'm quietly bullish on the company's August full-year result. The A2 Milk share price has already climbed higher in 2020 but a strong result could see it hit a new record high next month.

Motley Fool contributor Ken Hall has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of A2 Milk. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Gainers

An old-fashioned panel of judges each holding a card with the number 10
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was one for the record books this Wednesday.

Read more »

Ten smiling business people wave to the camera after receiving some winning company news.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was an exceedingly positive Tuesday for investors.

Read more »

Happy teen friends jumping in front of a wall.
Share Gainers

4 ASX shares rated a buy with upside of up to 187%

All these ASX shares are climbing higher today.

Read more »

Three men stand on a winner's podium with medals around their necks and their hands raised in triumph.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Investors were treated to a happy start to the trading week this Monday.

Read more »

Happy work colleagues give each other a fist pump.
Share Gainers

These were the best-performing ASX 200 shares in July

These shares had a month to remember. Let's find out why.

Read more »

An old-fashioned panel of judges each holding a card with the number 10
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

The ASX scraped a win this Friday to close the week.

Read more »

three young children weariing business suits, helmets and old fashioned aviator goggles wear aeroplane wings on their backs and jump with one arm outstretched into the air in an arid, sandy landscape.
Share Gainers

3 ASX 200 stocks flying higher this week on big news

Investors sent these three ASX 200 shares flying higher following big announcements this week.

Read more »

A woman's hand draws a stylised 'Top Ten' on a projected surface.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a rather miserable Thursday on the ASX today.

Read more »