The Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) share price has shot up over 100% from its trough on 23 March. The company has gradually started to recommence regional flights. Meanwhile, both national and international borders remain closed. You have to wonder if investors are taking a very large gamble, or if Qantas really is a good investment right now.
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Not the same old Qantas
It appears likely that Qantas will be a transformed company following the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. Reduced demand is likely to force down costs for employees and marketing, in particular. This will presumably drive the company to mould itself into a leaner outfit that is better equipped to face its new 'normal'. Analyst Anthony Mulder from the investment bank Jeffries has forecast staff costs at Qantas to reduce to $2 billion in the 2021 financial year, down from $4.2 billion in 2019.
Qantas will, however, take a short term hit on fuel. The hedging they would have had in place to control costs will see them paying higher prices following the oil price's sudden crash. Nonetheless, over the medium term, the company will see fuel costs fall. There is also talk of Qantas winding up or selling off its minority stake in Vietnamese offshoot Jetstar Pacific.
What happens next?
It is hard to miss the growing crescendo calling for borders to reopen. The moment open borders are announced, I believe the Qantas share price will start to climb again. In addition, the company is well placed to return to a level of profitability.
It has been well supported by the government subsidising essential flights and its balance sheet remains very strong. Furthermore, Qantas retains a 19.9% stake in Alliance Aviation Services Ltd (ASX: AQZ). This provided the Aussie airliner with at least one air flight revenue stream throughout the lockdown period. Qantas' stake in Alliance, however, is currently under review by the ACCC.
Is there value in today's Qantas share price?
Notwithstanding all the factors above, I believe Qantas has the financial track record of a well managed company. Moreover, it has a strong balance sheet and high liquidity (cash) levels. As an indication of good management, Qantas has a 10-year average return on equity of 17.5%. This is also known as its return on net assets. I believe that for a capital intensive company, this is a good result.
Lastly, in his upgrade of Qantas, analyst Anthony Mulder gave it a target price of $6.20. Merrill Lynch Bank of America analyst Melinda Baxter also upgraded her recommendation, valuing the Qantas share price at $5.25. It is currently trading at $4.29, at the time of writing.
Foolish takeaway
During the pandemic, Qantas has demonstrated why it is one of Australia's most widely held shares. It is reshaping itself for the future and has worked hard to be battle ready. With two prominent analysts recommending a higher target price, I believe the Qantas share price will start to climb once there is a hint that borders will reopen.
