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5 ASX 200 dividend shares for an economic recovery

While budget measures have been effective in keeping the economy on life support, the real economic numbers have yet to be announced. Last week in parliament, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg revealed that the economic contraction for the current quarter is expected to be 10%. This will be the biggest 3 month decline on record. It’s a sobering number, but a recovery can be anticipated when lockdowns ease and economic activity around the globe returns to normal.

Here are 5 ASX 200 dividend shares that can be expected to bounce when an economic recovery takes hold.

Premier Investments Limited (ASX: PMV)

Premier Investments is the investment company of retail mogul Solomon Lew. It owns several famous retail brands including Just Jeans, Portmans, Peter Alexander and Smiggle. The company has been in temporary lockdown as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and all its stores have been closed. While the company’s online retailing was up a massive 99%, its sales overall were down 74% for the 6 weeks to 6 May 2020 on the prior corresponding period.  

In response, the Premier Investments share price has fallen from a high of $21.31 in February to $15.58 at present, previously falling as low as $8.95 at the height of the crisis. However, all of the company’s Australian stores reopened on Friday 15 May. This should assist the company in returning to previous earnings and maintaining its dividends. Premier Investments has a trailing dividend yield of 4.56% fully franked.

JB Hi-Fi Limited (ASX: JBH)

JB Hi-Fi is a retailer of consumer goods in Australia and New Zealand. It also owns The Good Guys network of stores. Despite the recent crisis, JB Hi-Fi stores in Australia have remained open and the company has continued taking online orders. JB Hi-Fi have actually announced sales growth throughout the last 2 months. The company attributes this growth to people stocking up in preparation for the COVID-19 crisis. Whatever the cause, it is good news for JB Hi-Fi shareholders.

JB Hi-Fi is a considered a consumer discretionary stock. This means that as a recession kicks in people can be expected to spend less on its products than they would otherwise. However, when the economy recovers and consumer confidence picks up, JB Hi-Fi can be expected to see increased buying by consumers. JB Hi-Fi trades on a trailing dividend yield of 4.32% fully franked.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP is one of the oldest companies listed on the ASX. While it is often seen as an engine of stability in an often unpredictable share market, it is actually highly cyclical. During the GFC, the BHP share price dropped from a high of $95 in May 2008 down to a low of just $24.62 in November 2009. Just 2 years later in 2011, it recovered to a high $102.68. Currently it sits back at $34.52.

In a question and answer session with the BHP CEO on 30 April, the company’s leader promised a continued dividend and strong balance sheet through the economic cycle. These are reassuring words considering that this could be the worst recession since the Great Depression. BHP is deferring investments in projects to keep cash on hand and maintain a dividend of at least 50% of earnings.

Additionally, the company is looking out for strategic acquisitions that may be brought about by the economic downturn. BHP is leveraged to a recovery in the world economy and a subsequent recovery in oil, coal and iron ore prices. This is something that has historically eventuated throughout the economic cycles of previous decades. BHP has a trailing dividend yield of 6.17%, fully franked.

National Australia Bank Ltd. (ASX: NAB)

NAB is the third largest bank on the ASX by market capitalisation. With dividends from rival banks becoming uncertain, NAB’s recently announced capital raising will allow it to continue paying a dividend. This will also help them to keep a strong balance sheet during a severe economic downturn. NAB’s ratio of tier one equity capital, an important ratio for liquidity and balance sheet strength, is high by international standards at around 11.20%. This means that the bank should remain financially secure in difficult times.

When an economic rebound eventuates, NAB will see a significant boost to new loans issued by the bank. This will mean more interest and higher profits. Additionally, NAB has recently been required to make provisions of $4.4 billion to allow for bad debts. During an economic recovery, this number will be significantly reduced freeing up cash for dividend increases. NAB has a trailing dividend yield of 7.32% fully franked.

Boral Limited (ASX: BLD)

Boral is a manufacturer of bricks and other construction materials. Its share price has recently fallen a massive 50.38% from a high of $5.20 in February to just $2.58. Last week, Boral released an update to the market. The company recently worked to ensure the liquidity of its balance sheet by issuing US$200 million of unsecured notes and extending its banking facilities. In addition to keeping Boral in good shape financially, these measures are a smart move while the US dollar is fetching $1.56 Australian (at the time of writing).

During the COVID-19 crisis, Boral’s products have been considered essential and the company has been allowed to keep operating throughout the crisis. Additionally, despite a >50% drop in share price, Boral’s revenue has only been affected by around 6% compared to 2019, despite the bushfires and the coronavirus crisis. Going forward, Boral is leveraged to continued strength in the property market as Australia absorbs significant population growth. While short-term weakness in property prices is expected, history has shown that Australia’s housing market has recovered over time. Boral trades on a trailing dividend yield of 9.35% with 50% franking.

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Motley Fool contributor Chris Chitty has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Premier Investments Limited. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.