Here's why interest rates aren't likely to go down next month

The latest job statistics may be enough to stop the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from cutting the interest rate next month.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Australia's economy just got another boost as the latest jobs statistics came in. It could mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) won't cut interest rates in February.

a woman

What happened?

According to the latest stats released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the total number of people employed rose by 28,900 with full-time employment falling by 300 and part-time employment rising by 29,200. Additionally, unemployment fell by 12,900.

All of this led to the unemployment rate decreasing by 0.1% to 5.1%.

What does this have to do with interest rates?

One of the main jobs of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is to monitor the economy. The RBA can change the interest rate if the economy needs a boost or it can raise rates if the economy needs cooling down.

The unemployment rate is one of the main things that the RBA looks at. So the fact that it fell means that the RBA might just take a 'wait and see' approach. The interest rate is already at record lows, it shouldn't go lower unless absolutely necessary in my opinion.

We've already heard from online retail business Kogan.Com Ltd (ASX: KGN) that growth is slowing. The bushfires in-particular could be having an impact on retailers. Mosaic Brands Ltd (ASX: MOZ) was one to announce that its upcoming result has been materially impacted by bushfires. Whilst employment is an important factor, the bushfires could decide to lower interest rates to support Australians who are doing it tough because of bushfire effects. We'll see what effects it has had on businesses like Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) in this reporting season. 

Foolish takeaway

Lower unemployment is good for the country and good for the ASX's earnings, even if valuations have been pushed a little lower due to the rate cut in February looking unlikely.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A young male ASX investor raises his clenched fists in excitement because of rising ASX share prices today.
Broker Notes

Forget CBA shares, Bell Potter says this ASX financial stock could deliver a 75% return

The broker sees potential for major upside and a generous return from this stock.

Read more »

A neon sign says 'Top Ten'.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

Investors had a rough start to the week.

Read more »

Man holding out Australian dollar notes, symbolising dividends.
Share Market News

Charter Hall Retail REIT reveals March 2026 distribution details

Charter Hall Retail REIT has announced a 6.35 cent unfranked quarterly distribution for the March 2026 period.

Read more »

Lion roaring in the wild, symbolising a rising Liontown share price.
Broker Notes

Up 117% in a year, should you still buy Liontown shares now?

A leading analyst delivers his verdict on the soaring Liontown share price.

Read more »

Man drawing an upward line on a bar graph symbolising a rising share price.
Growth Shares

2 ASX shares that I rate as buys today for both growth and dividends!

Here’s why these stocks could make great buys today.

Read more »

Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Bapcor, Challenger, and DroneShield shares

Analysts have given their verdict on these shares this week. Are they bullish, bearish, or something in between?

Read more »

a man in a business suite throws his arms open wide above his head and raises his face with his mouth open in celebration in front of a background of an illuminated board tracking stock market movements.
Broker Notes

These ASX 300 stocks could be top buys offering 25%+ returns according to Bell Potter

The broker thinks the total returns on offer with these shares could be substantial.

Read more »

A silhouette of a soldier flying a drone at sunset.
Broker Notes

The DroneShield share price has soared 266% in a year. Time to take profits?

A leading expert offers his outlook for DroneShield’s surging shares.

Read more »