Here's why interest rates aren't likely to go down next month

The latest job statistics may be enough to stop the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from cutting the interest rate next month.

| More on:
a woman

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Australia's economy just got another boost as the latest jobs statistics came in. It could mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) won't cut interest rates in February.

What happened?

According to the latest stats released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the total number of people employed rose by 28,900 with full-time employment falling by 300 and part-time employment rising by 29,200. Additionally, unemployment fell by 12,900.

All of this led to the unemployment rate decreasing by 0.1% to 5.1%.

What does this have to do with interest rates?

One of the main jobs of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is to monitor the economy. The RBA can change the interest rate if the economy needs a boost or it can raise rates if the economy needs cooling down.

The unemployment rate is one of the main things that the RBA looks at. So the fact that it fell means that the RBA might just take a 'wait and see' approach. The interest rate is already at record lows, it shouldn't go lower unless absolutely necessary in my opinion.

We've already heard from online retail business Kogan.Com Ltd (ASX: KGN) that growth is slowing. The bushfires in-particular could be having an impact on retailers. Mosaic Brands Ltd (ASX: MOZ) was one to announce that its upcoming result has been materially impacted by bushfires. Whilst employment is an important factor, the bushfires could decide to lower interest rates to support Australians who are doing it tough because of bushfire effects. We'll see what effects it has had on businesses like Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) and Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) in this reporting season. 

Foolish takeaway

Lower unemployment is good for the country and good for the ASX's earnings, even if valuations have been pushed a little lower due to the rate cut in February looking unlikely.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of Wesfarmers Limited. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Kogan.com ltd. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

three men stand on a winner's podium with medals around their necks with their hands raised in triumph.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a happy end to the trading week this Friday.

Read more »

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles while at laptop.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

A business person directs a pointed finger upwards on a rising arrow on a bar graph.
Share Gainers

3 ASX 200 stocks storming higher in this week's sinking market

Investors have sent these three ASX 200 stocks soaring this week. But why?

Read more »

A man sits in despair at his computer with his hands either side of his head, staring into the screen with a pained and anguished look on his face, in a home office setting.
Share Market News

Why Aeris Resources, Netwealth, Nova Minerals, and Paragon Care shares are dropping today

These shares are under pressure on Friday. Let's find out why.

Read more »

Two smiling work colleagues discuss an investment at their office.
Share Gainers

Why 4DMedical, Develop Global, EOS, and Maas shares are racing higher today

These shares are ending the week on a high. But why?

Read more »

A man leans forward over his phone in his hands with a satisfied smirk on his face although he has just learned something pleasing or received some satisfying news.
Share Market News

Downer EDI wins $870m NZ highway maintenance contracts: What investors need to know

Downer EDI wins major New Zealand state highway maintenance contracts worth NZ$870 million, expanding its infrastructure portfolio.

Read more »

A young woman lifts her red glasses with one hand as she takes a closer look at news about interest rates rising and one expert's surprising recommendation as to which ASX shares to buy
Broker Notes

Ord Minnett names 2 ASX 200 shares to buy for massive returns

The broker sees a lot of value in these big names. Here's what it is recommending.

Read more »

Six smiling health workers pose for a selfie.
Healthcare Shares

Up 657% in a year, 4DMedcial shares rocketing another 20% today on big US news

ASX investors can’t get enough of 4DMedical shares today. Let’s see why.

Read more »