Anyone looking to make good money on the local share market would do well to look to the travel sector, especially if you buy into the economists' chatter of "synchronised global growth" springing up across the U.S., Europe and Asia recently.
The leisure travel industry is leveraged to global economic growth, while corporate travel is especially sensitive to improving economic cycles.
Anyone who has worked in a job that involves some travel will know that during the good times the travel budget is abundant, while if business slows down one of the first costs to be cut back on is corporate travel.
Over the past year shares in the ASX's largest corporate and leisure travel business Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) are up a whopping 75% or so. Today they sell for $62.60 near a record high for a $6.2 billion founder led business that has grown via a mix of organic growth and acquisitions.
Another business that has even demolished the returns of Flight Centre over the past few years is the founder-led Brisbane-based Corporate Travel Management Ltd (ASX: CTD).
Shares in this business have climbed from around $5 in early 2014 to above $25 today.
Moreover, Corporate Travel is forecasting underlying EBITDA in 2018 of around $125 million or more than 27% above the prior year's result.
Management has also reiterated that it's continuing to win "accelerating market share" with "good momentum" going into the new financial year starting on July 1 2019.
As the group itself noted in a recent presentation to the market it is also seeing "synchronised global growth" in key global markets that it serves.
As such, it's not a big leap of faith to suggest that FY 2019 is shaping up to be another potentially strong year for Corporate Travel Management and its investors.
Given its track record, solid founder-led management team, entrepreneurial culture, and the alignment of sales staff's interests with shareholders this is not a business I would bet against.
Just ask the traders short selling the stock over the past years who've ended up with nothing more than mounting losses and a potential one-way ticket to Centrelink.
I must caution that like all share market investments Corporate Travel carries plenty of risks, and retail investors should only consider owning it as part of a balanced investment portfolio. Overall, if FY 2019 does deliver some reasonable global economic growth, Corporate Travel looks well positioned to capitalise for today's investors.
