One of the strongest performers on the S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) in the last 10 years has been a telco. I'm sure the first share which will pop into the minds of investors when they read this is Telstra Corporation Ltd (ASX: TLS).
But it's not Telstra. Far from it. In the last 10 years Telstra has provided an average annual total shareholder return of 12.1%. This is decent performance, but pales in comparison to TPG Telecom Ltd (ASX: TPM).
TPG Telecom has managed to provided shareholders with a staggering average annual total return of 39.2% in the last decade.
Let's put this into context. If you had invested $50,000 in TPG Telecom shares back on May 17 2006, it would now be worth just short of $1.4 million today.
Admittedly it would be near impossible for the company to produce this level of return for shareholders for another 10 years. But opportunities in mobile could provide the company with a huge amount of bottom line growth in the future that fuels share price gains.
According to research by Kantar, TPG Telecom has a paltry 2% share of the total mobile market.
A takeover of Vodafone Australia would perhaps be the most logical move. Acquiring Vodafone's estimated 15.2% share of the market would be the first step to closing the gap on Telstra and its 41.1% share. It wouldn't come cheap and would put significant pressure on its balance sheet, but it could ultimately prove to be very profitable.
But even without a takeover of Vodafone, the market is still very bullish on TPG Telecom's earnings growth from its core business. According to CommSec, the company is expected to grow its earnings by 24% per annum through to at least FY 2018.
I think if it can grow its mobile market share there is no reason it couldn't continue to grow earnings at this level for a good number of years. With the shares being about fair value now, I would expect its share price to rise in line with its earnings growth.
This could mean shareholders average a total return of around 24% per annum for at least the next five years, which would turn a $50,000 investment into around $150,000. Perhaps it isn't quite as strong a return as an investment 10 years ago was, but for a blue chip this would still be a fantastic gain if you ask me.
