Morning market movers: 7 stocks to watch

Our market is expected to hold above the psychologically important 5,000 level today as OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) and Origin Energy Ltd (ASX:ORG) take centre stage.

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It's not only the stronger open for our market, but the fact that the index will stay above the psychologically important 5,000 threshold that will excite investors.

The S&P/ASX 200 (Index: ^AXJO) (ASX: XJO) is poised to start the trading day 0.2% higher at 5,030 –comfortably above the 5,000 level. I had thought it would take a little more time for the benchmark to regain that level after it crashed to its lowest level in more than two years of 4,918 on Tuesday.

We can thank the two-day rally in Swiss commodities giant Glencore in London overnight, big gains in US and European stock indices and higher commodity prices for the positive sentiment.

Just don't think for a moment that the days of wild swings to the downside are over, even though I believe the end-of-year "Santa Rally" will visit the ASX again this year as it is one of the most reliable seasonal phenomena.

But for this morning, the focus will mainly be on copper miners. I am not talking so much about the stunning 4% surge in the price of the red metal to $US2.3410 a pound but the potential takeover of OZ Minerals Limited (ASX: OZL).

Private equity firm KKR is trying to buy a 10% stake in OZ Minerals and has upped its offer to $3.60 this morning from yesterday's offer price of $3.55 a share, according to the Australian Financial Review.

The new offer price represents a 8.8% premium to OZ Minerals' last closing price and I will be surprised if the stock doesn't pop at the open.

The move will throw the spotlight on other copper producers like Sandfire Resources NL (ASX: SFR) so expect the sector to lead today's market gains.

The iron ore majors like Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) should also get a lift from the 0.5% gain in the iron ore price to $US56.32 a tonne, although the 0.3% drop in the West Texas Intermediate oil price to $US45.09 a barrel could put some pressure on energy stocks.

But it isn't the oil price investors will be focusing on today but capital raisings. Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) has thrown in the towel and conceded to a $2.5 billion capital raising at a time when its shares are trading at an 11-year low of $6.10. Ouch!

Origin's move will put further pressure on Santos Ltd (ASX: STO), which has been resisting calls for it to sell shares to prop up its debt-laden balance sheet. As I have written before, I think it's highly likely that Santos will succumb to the pressure.

Meanwhile, steel maker Arrium Ltd (ASX: ARI) could also come under pressure after the AFR reported that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) is trying to sell its debt at around 80 cents to a dollar as the bank looks to cut its exposure to the embattled sector.

Wine maker Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) will also share the spotlight as Sky News reports that it is leading the race to buy Diageo Wines.

Finally, a handful of stocks will trade ex-div tomorrow. You will have to buy telecom services company M2 Group Ltd (ASX: MTU), metal recycler Sims Metal Management Ltd (ASX: SGM) and information management company Recall Holdings Ltd (ASX:REC) for their dividends today.

M2 will pay a 17 cents a share fully franked payout, Sims Metal will distribute a fully franked 13 cents a share dividend and Recall will give a 10 cents dividend that is 40% franked.

Motley Fool contributor Brendon Lau owns shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, M2 Group Ltd, and Rio Tinto Ltd.. Follow me on Twitter - https://twitter.com/brenlau Unless otherwise noted, the author does not have a position in any stocks mentioned by the author in the comments below. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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