In a wide-ranging interview with The Australian Financial Review, RBA governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar (AUD) – currently at US82.6 cents – is still overvalued.
Covering everything from interest rates to confidence and trade figures, Mr Stevens said we should be positive about our economy.
Reflecting on 2014 he said the central bank choose to make decisions which promoted "stability and predictability" in the economy.
As reported in The Australian Financial Review he said: "I have been asking myself what can we do that will be most conducive to supporting confidence, predictability, the sense that people can make some plans for their business, their own life, whatever it might be," he said. "And the view I came to pretty early on was what we should be doing is giving a message of stability and predictability insofar as we can."
He acknowledged there is scope to lower interest rates further than their current record low of 2.5%, but believes predictability is key to restoring confidence.
Expect a lower Aussie Dollar
In a similar interview with the AFR this time last year, Mr Stevens said the dollar was overvalued and he would like it to drop to US85 cents. With the dollar subsequently climbing to a high of US95 cents in July his proposition was eventually proven correct, with the AUD tumbling 9% in the past three months.
However a lot has changed since 2013. Unemployment is high and both confidence and the terms of trade are falling, taking their toll on the economy.
Asked to pick a level for the currency, Mr Stevens said, "probably US75 cents is better than US85 cents."
"Some further adjustment is going to have us much more like normal historical levels, at least against the US dollar and maybe some others," he said.
For consumers, "with a lower exchange rate, the price of foreign goods and services go up, and that will affect their behaviour, including the tendency for them to substitute between foreign and domestic [goods and services]."
4 companies to benefit
By encouraging a lower AUD, the RBA is hoping the non-mining sector of the economy will pick up. Whilst that could take some time, share market investors can benefit from a lower dollar by holding shares in high-quality Australian companies with significant overseas exposure.
For example packaging giant Amcor Limited (ASX: AMC) derives just 3.9% of revenues from Australian operations but nearly 30% from the USA. Computershare Limited (ASX: CPU), a leading share registry and investor services firm, which has exposure to over 20 countries derives a whopping 44.7% of revenues from US markets. Both Amcor and Computershare are market leaders and have dividends of 3.5% and 2.8% respectively.
Respiratory device manufacturer ResMed Inc. (CHESS) (ASX: RMD) is another successful Australian business taking on foreign markets. It generates 53% of revenues from North and Latin America. Finally Australia's premier investment bank, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), is heavily leveraged to a falling dollar. It derives 65% of income from foreign markets. In addition to offering a 4.8% dividend, its shareholders will benefit from increasing investor confidence throughout global markets.
Foolish takeaway
The dollar looks very likely to trend lower in 2015 and beyond, regardless of whether the RBA lowers interest rates or not. As such local investors should be positioning their portfolios to benefit by either investing directly in foreign markets or buying companies with exposure to them.