Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to fall

It looks set to be a subdued session for Australian investors on Thursday following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 18 points or 0.2% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones edged lower, but the S&P 500 rose 0.25% and the Nasdaq climbed 0.55%.

ASX 200 result releases

Earnings season is going up a gear on Thursday with a large number of ASX 200 shares due to release their results. This includes Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS), Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG),  Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG), ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX), and Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE).

Oil prices soften

ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a soft session after oil prices edged lower overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 0.4% to US$82.86 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.35% to US$88.61 a barrel. This was despite reports of vessel attacks in the Gulf of Oman.

SEEK shares downgraded

SEEK Ltd (ASX: SEK) shares are fully valued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, in response to its full-year results, the broker has downgraded the job listings giant's shares to a hold rating with a reduced price target of $15.20 (from $18.58). It explained: "We downgrade to Hold and await a positive shift in sentiment or visibility on jobs volumes recovery; similarly, we suspect a potential growth fund catalyst is a 2H27 story. SEK appears to be improving operations to sustainably target 10% yield growth on top of strong cost controls, however, despite trading at deep value ex. Growth Fund, macro-based headwinds suggest difficult sentiment near-term for the stock."

Gold price rises

It could be a positive session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price rose again overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.7% to US$4,471.9 an ounce. The precious metal continued its rise after US inflation data reduced rate hike bets.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to fall

The Australian share market looks set for a tough session on Wednesday following a poor night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 37 points or 0.4% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones fell 0.35%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 0.6%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session on Wednesday after oil prices rose again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 1.55% to US$83.40 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 1.6% to US$89.10 a barrel. Oil prices continue to rise amid doubts over a potential US-Iran deal for the Strait of Hormuz.

Buy Life360 shares 

Bell Potter remains positive on Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360) shares following the release of the location technology company's quarterly update. Bell Potter has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $34.00 (from $35.00). It said: "We retain our BUY recommendation and note we expect the buyback to be more active this quarter after only modestly commencing last quarter."

Gold price edges higher

ASX 200 gold shares Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a reasonably positive session on Wednesday after the gold price edged higher. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 0.25% to US$4,429.8 an ounce. The gold price hit a two-month high ahead of US inflation data.

CBA FY 2026 results

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares will be on watch on Wednesday when the banking giant releases its FY 2026 results. According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, its analysts are expecting the company to report a 6.8% increase in cash profit to $10.95 billion. This is despite expectations for a 2 basis point decline in its net interest margin to 2.06%. A full-year fully franked dividend of $5.05 per share is expected. 

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

One owns metal. The other owns a business that digs metal out of the ground.

They behave differently, and understanding those differences is crucial for ASX investors.

What physical gold ETFs actually own

The Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) is the longest-running gold ETF on the Australian market, listed back in 2003.

The ETF's job is simple: it tracks the movement of the gold price in Australian dollars, less fees.

The fund is backed by allocated physical bullion held in London vaults, with each bar segregated and individually identified.

The management fee is 0.40% a year, which covers storage, insurance and administration.

What physical gold ETFs do not do is generate income of any kind. There is no dividend, no franking credit and no earnings growth to compound over time.

Your return is the movement in the gold price, less that annual fee, and nothing else.

The case for miners over gold ETFs

Gold miners introduce operating leverage, and that cuts both ways.

When the gold price rises above a producer's cost base, profits expand far faster than the metal price does.

When costs blow out, or a mine underperforms, the same leverage works in reverse.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) illustrates the trade-off well.

Miners also pay dividends, which gold ETFs structurally cannot, and for Australian investors those payments often arrive with franking attached.

Northern Star has historically paid two fully franked dividends a year, in March and September.

For an Australian investor on a decent marginal rate, franking credits are a part of the return.

The offsetting risk is that you are now exposed to labour costs, diesel prices, grade variability and management decisions.

The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index rose just 1% in July, while the broader ASX 200 gained 2.3%.

Recent earnings: what Northern Star reported

Northern Star's June quarter update gives a read on where costs actually sit for a large Australian producer.

The miner reported gold sales of 433,482 ounces for the quarter, up 14% on the March quarter.

All-in sustaining costs came in at $2,651 per ounce for the three months, comfortably below the prevailing gold price. Across the full year, Northern Star sold 1.543 million ounces at an AISC of $2,698 per ounce, within its cost guidance.

Management estimated FY26 earnings of between $2.86 billion and $2.95 billion.

That compares with cash earnings of $2.87 billion in FY25, so the growth is modest despite a much higher gold price.

Quarterly underlying free cash flow came in at $206 million, which is the figure that ultimately funds the dividend.

Morgans moved to an accumulate rating following the update, stating:

Costs beat at all three production centres and FY26 volumes finished above revised guidance.

Audited FY26 results and FY27 production guidance are both due on 20 August, having been deferred pending early data from the KCGM mill expansion.

Foolish takeaway

If you want exposure to the metal as a portfolio diversifier, physical gold ETFs deliver it cleanly and cheaply at 0.40% a year.

If you want franked income and the possibility of outperforming the metal, a producer like Northern Star offers that, along with the risk of underperforming it badly.

Northern Star's flat earnings against a rising gold price is a reminder that operating leverage is an additional risk to consider.

Plenty of investors hold both, and there is a sound argument for doing exactly that.

The post Physical gold ETFs or gold miners? What the numbers say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

The Australian share market looks set for a positive start to the week following a strong session on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 33 points or 0.35% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.6%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.3%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a decent start to the week after oil prices rose on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 1.15% to US$78.18 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 1.3% to US$83.55 a barrel. Traders were buying oil as they await news on a potential deal to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Avita shares upgraded

AVITA Medical Inc (ASX: AVH) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker has upgraded the medical device company's shares to a speculative buy rating with a vastly improved price target of $2.10 (from $1.20). It commented: "We believe the investment case has improved materially following Q2. The MAC overhang appears increasingly behind the business, with improved reimbursement visibility and stronger RECELL growth supporting record quarterly revenue. Lower cash burn improves confidence in the path to breakeven; we conservatively forecast FY27 versus management's CY26 target, while funding risk remains given limited liquidity."

Gold price climbs again

It could be a good start to the week for ASX 200 gold shares Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price rose on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 2.3% to US$4,399.7 an ounce. The precious metal hit a seven-week high after weak US jobs data reduced rate hike bets.

Car Group results

The CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR) share price will be on watch on Monday when the auto listings company releases its FY 2026 results. According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts are expecting CAR Group to report sales of $1,273.3 million, underlying EBITDA of $709.8 million, and adjusted net profit after tax of $406.1 million. The latter represents a 7.4% increase on the prior corresponding period. 

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Brokers have reduced their ratings on numerous ASX shares this week.

Let's take a look at a few of them.

Endeavour Group Ltd (ASX: EDV)

The Endeavour share price is $3.44, up 0.2% today and down 15% over 12 months. 

Morgans downgraded the ASX 200 consumer staples share from hold to trim yesterday.

The broker lifted its 12-month price target from $2.80 to $3.20.

This implies a potential 7% downside ahead.

The changes came after Endeavour released its preliminary FY26 results.

Endeavour revealed a 1.3% lift year over year in group sales to $12,212 million.

However, the underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) fell to $363 million, down from $426 million in FY25.

Morgans commented:

EDV has provided some preliminary numbers for FY26 with underlying sales, EBIT and NPAT largely in line with expectations.

The company has, however, announced $372m ($311m after tax) in one-off costs (both cash and non-cash) relating to the write down of carrying values for assets as well as costs associated with the implementation of its strategy review.

Further details on EDV's performance are due to be released at its FY26 result on 24 August.

We decrease FY27F and FY28F underlying EBIT by 2%. Despite this, our target price increases to $3.20 (from $2.80) due to an uplift in peer valuation multiples.

We expect liquor demand to remain under pressure amid elevated interest rates, ongoing cost-of-living pressures and an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop.

The new management strategy also carries execution risk, in our view.

Firefly Metals Ltd (ASX: FFM)

The Firefly Metals share price is $1.93, up 5.2% today and up 87% over 12 months. 

MA Financial downgraded the copper and gold mining share to a hold rating on Tuesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $1.90.

This suggests a potential 55% upside ahead.

APA Group (ASX: APA)

The APA share price is $10.07, down 1% today and up 17% over 12 months. 

Jarden downgraded the ASX 200 utilities share to a hold rating on Wednesday.

The broker has a 12-month price target of $10.25.

This implies just a 2% upside ahead.

APA will announce its FY26 results on Thursday, 20 August.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd (ASX: GYG)

The Guzman Y Gomez share price is $24.88, down 0.3% today and down 12% over 12 months. 

UBS downgraded the ASX 200 consumer discretionary share to a hold rating yesterday.

The broker raised its 12-month price target from $24 to $28.

This indicates potential capital gains of 12% over the next year. 

The Mexican restaurant franchise group will announce its FY26 results on Friday, 21 August.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Northern Star Resources shares are $22.34, up 3.9% today and up 30% over 12 months. 

Morgans downgraded the ASX 200 gold share from buy to accumulate following the miner's June quarter report.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $26 to $24.

This suggests a potential 7% upside ahead.

The post 5 ASX shares downgraded by brokers this week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to edge lower

It looks set to be a soft session for Australian investors on Thursday following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 8 points or 0.1% lower this morning. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.5%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.15% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.8%.

ASX 200 results releases

A number of ASX 200 shares will be releasing their results on Thursday. This includes payments giant Block Inc. (ASX: XYZ), financial services company AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP), media behemoth News Corp (ASX: NWS), and property listings leader REA Group Ltd (ASX: REA). With respect to the latter, Bell Potter expects REA Group to report group revenue of $1,808 million and adjusted NPAT of $626 million. This represents 8% and 11% growth, respectively.

Oil prices soften

ASX 200 energy shares Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a subdued session after oil prices softened overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 1.1% to US$74.92 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 0.2% to US$79.21 a barrel. Oil prices have come under significant pressure this week amid easing US-Iran tensions.

Buy Light & Wonder shares

Light & Wonder Inc. (ASX: LNW) shares could be seriously undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, in response to the gaming technology company's results release, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $183.00 (from $190.00). It said: "We retain Buy and reduce TP. We now forecast EBITDA growth of at the lower end of the company's guidance range. We see a resumption in top line growth occurring in 4Q26. We believe LNW offers compelling value at 10x EV/EBIT(A) given growth metrics."

Gold price jumps

It looks like it could be a great session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price jumped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 3.75% to US$4,308.5 an ounce. This was driven by a weaker US dollar. 

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise again

The Australian share market looks set for another good session on Wednesday following a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 23 points or 0.25% higher. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is up 1.9%, the S&P 500 is up 1.9%, and the Nasdaq is 2.8% higher.

Oil prices sink again

ASX 200 energy shares Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a tough session on Wednesday after oil prices sank again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 5.7% to US$75.79 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 5.2% to US$79.42 a barrel. Traders were selling oil in response to reports that the US and Iran could sign a Strait of Hormuz deal this week.

Buy Life360 shares 

Bell Potter thinks Life360 Inc. (ASX: 360) shares are a top pick for Aussie investors right now. This morning, the broker retained its buy rating and $35.00 price target on this location technology company's shares. It said: "We see the stock as reasonable value trading on a 2027 EV/EBITDA multiple of c.25x which is a discount to the Technology One multiple of c.29x. We believe Life360 deserves to trade on a similar if not higher multiple than Technology One given it is global, a market leader and has higher forecast earnings growth over the next few years."

Gold price rises

ASX 200 gold shares including Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a good session on Wednesday after the gold price charged higher. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.15% to US$4,137.4 an ounce. Lower oil prices have reduced US interest rate hike expectations.

Pinnacle FY 2026 results

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd (ASX: PNI) shares will be on watch on Wednesday after the investment management company released its FY 2026 results. The company reported underlying NPAT (before one-offs) of $138 million, which is up 21% on the prior corresponding period. This allowed Pinnacle to declare a 65% franked final dividend of 31 cents per share.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This saw the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) increase a more modest 1% over the month just past.

Investors didn't get much direction from the gold price in July. The yellow metal was trading for US$4,030 per ounce on 1 July. It then traded in a fairly tight range to be fetching US$4,046 per ounce on 31 July, according to data from Bloomberg.

So how did Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares stack up?

Let's dig in.

Evolution Mining shares slide despite record $3.4 billion cash flow

Evolution Mining shares slipped 4.1% in July to end the month trading for $11.27 apiece.

It was a busy month for the ASX 200 gold stock, with Evolution releasing its June quarter update on 15 July.

Over the three-month period, the miner produced 180,000 ounces of gold and 19,000 tonnes of copper at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,706 per ounce.

The miner met its full-year FY 2026 production and cost guidance, reporting FY 2026 gold production of 715,000 ounces and copper production of 66,000 tonnes. FY 2026 AISC came in at a low $1,717 per ounce.

This helped Evolution Mining achieve a record operating mine cash flow of $3.39 billion.

The ASX 200 gold stock captured investor interest again on 27 July following news that it will acquire Aussie copper and gold miner Carnaby Resources Ltd (ASX: CNB).

The all-share acquisition deal values Carnaby Resources at around $213 million.

Northern Star shares outperform on gold production boost

Northern Star shares outpaced the benchmark in the month just gone, gaining 5% to close on 31 July trading for $19.90 each.

The ASX 200 gold stock gained 2.2% on 29 July, following the release of its June quarter update.

Over the three months, Northern Star reported gold sales of 433,482 ounces, up 14% quarter on quarter. The miner produced that gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,651 per ounce.

For the full FY 2026 year, management expects Northern Star's earnings to be between $2.86 billion and $2.95 billion, in line with cash earnings of $2.87 billion in FY 2025.

Newmont shares finish in the green

Last but not least, Newmont shares managed to close out July in the green, finishing the month up a slender 0.3% at $134.97 each.

Newmont released its own June quarterly update on 24 July.

Shares in the ASX 200 gold stock closed down 1.4% on the day, with the miner reporting a 14.3% year decline in quarterly gold production to 1.2 million ounces. And Newmont's AISC of US$1,938 per ounce in the June quarter was up 21.7% from last year.

However, the pain was mitigated by the increase in the average realised gold price Newmont received to US$4,414 per ounce. This helped drive a 15.1% year-on-year boost in quarterly sales to US$6.12 billion.

Reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $3.76 billion were up 25%.

The post Buying ASX 200 gold stocks? Here's how Evolution Mining, Newmont and Northern Star shares stacked up in July appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Since then, the index has tumbled almost 30% as investors sold off their ASX gold shares.

Today, the gold price is US$4,049 per ounce, well off its record high of US$5,589 per ounce on 28 January.

Amid this uninspiring picture, analysts say these ASX 200 gold shares are still good buys today.

Here's why.

Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM)

Capricorn Metals shares are up 2.8% to $13.15 today, and up 45% over 12 months.

Bell Potter reaffirmed its buy rating after the company released its June quarter report.

The broker increased its 12-month target on the ASX 200 gold share from $16.70 to $17.80.

This suggests a potential 35% upside ahead.

Analyst David Coates said:

CMM is a sector leading gold producer, unhedged and debt free. It is fully funded to grow production from ~120kozpa to +400kozpa from two gold mines in WA.

CMM is run by a management team that has an excellent track record of delivery.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star Resources share price is $20.43, up 2.6% today and up 26% over 12 months. 

Morgans previously had a buy rating on the ASX 200 gold share but moved to an accumulate recommendation.

This followed the release of Northern Star's June quarter report.

The broker lowered its 12-month price target from $26 to $24.

This suggests a potential 17% upside ahead.

Morgans said:

Costs beat at all three production centres and FY26 volumes finished above revised guidance. We view the result as largely neutral.

FY27 guidance has been deferred to the 20 August FY26 result pending early KCGM Mill Expansion commissioning data.

Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL)

The Catalyst Metals share price is $5.84, up 1.3% today and up 5.5% over 12 months.

Bell Potter reiterated its buy rating on the ASX 200 gold share after the miner's June quarter report.

The broker cut its 12-month price target from $14.60 to $13.25.

This implies a potential 126% upside ahead.

Analyst Todd Lewis said:

4QFY26 provided record production, costs below guidance and +A$54m cash.

FY27 production, cost guidance and strategy a significant near-term catalyst.

Perseus Mining Ltd (ASX: PRU)

Perseus Mining shares are $4.91, up 1.3% today and up 46% over 12 months.

Macquarie has an outperform rating on the ASX 200 gold share with a price target of $5.50.

This implies potential capital gains of 12% ahead.

Macquarie says Perseus Mining is cashed-up and should be able to deliver higher returns and growth at the same time.

In a new note following the miner's June quarter report, the broker said management was strengthening the balance sheet, providing flexibility to increase shareholder returns and invest in growth simultaneously.

Perseus Mining reported more than US$1 billion in net cash at 30 June.

The broker said:

We anticipate outsized returns, above the current buy-back program.

The post 4 ASX 200 gold shares to buy: Experts appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

To narrow things down, let's look at three popular shares that Morgans has recently given its verdict on.

Are they buys, holds, or sells? Let's find out:

Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE)

Morgans was pleased with this uranium producer's finish to a challenging year.

While the broker has been disappointed with the performance of the Alta Mesa operation, it has maintained its accumulate rating (between buy and hold) with a trimmed price target of $1.40. It said:

Honeymoon guidance achieved following a challenging year – 4Q uranium production rebounded 79% qoq to 362klb, allowing BOE to achieve revised FY26 production guidance, while FY26 C1 costs (A$39/lb) and AISC (A$61/lb) also landed within guidance. 

Alta Mesa. What a disappointment – Alta Mesa production of just 45klb (100% basis) missed consensus by ~78%, highlighting the ongoing impact of permitting delays and reinforcing that meaningful production growth remains dependent on approval of new wellfields. We maintain our ACCUMULATE rating with a downgraded target price of A$1.40ps (previously A$1.55ps).

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Morgans has also been looking at Northern Star shares following the release of its update for FY 2026.

The broker was pleased to see beats on costs for all three production centres and production volumes ahead of its revised guidance. 

However, due to a recent rebound, Morgans downgraded the gold miner's shares to an accumulate rating with a trimmed price target of $24.00. The broker said:

Costs beat at all three production centres and FY26 volumes finished above revised guidance. We view the result as largely neutral. FY27 guidance has been deferred to the 20 August FY26 result pending early KCGM Mill Expansion commissioning data. Move to an ACCUMULATE with a A$24ps target price.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS)

Finally, Woodside delivered a good second-quarter update with operating revenue comfortably ahead of expectations.

And while its net debt was higher than expected, the broker believes this was due to cash flow timing.

In response to the update, Morgans retained its hold rating with a trimmed price target of $32.50. It said:

A good-looking 2Q26 operational and sales result, with operating revenue of US$4,185m up 28% qoq, 14.1% ahead of Visible Alpha (VA) consensus (US$3,668m) and 18% ahead of us (MorgansF US$3,545m). Roughly half the revenue beat came from marketing activity (lower margin). Strip that out and the beat narrows to ~6% on reported revenue, still healthy. 

Net debt of ~US$9.3bn was a rare negative, ~US$1.4bn above our estimate, but appears to be a cash flow timing factor. Nothing in Q2 materially changes our view. We update our TP to A$32.50 (from A$33.40) and maintain our HOLD rating.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Boss Energy, Northern Star, and Woodside shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Hundreds of companies will report between now and the end of the month, as our full calendar shows.

Most investors do not need to follow all of them, but a handful of results carry enough weight to move the index and set the tone for entire sectors.

Here are five worth circling.

Why this ASX reporting season matters

FY26 was a strange year for the Australian market.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) delivered total returns of 7%, with capital growth of just 2.77%.

Almost all of that came from one place.

The materials sector soared 47.48% for a total return of 52.11%, its strongest year since 2006.

Everything else lagged badly.

This ASX reporting season will show whether those sector dynamics may continue into the year ahead.

Five ASX reporting season results to watch

1. Commonwealth Bank — 12 August

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) will announce its FY26 result and final dividend on 12 August.

Its third-quarter update showed cash profit of roughly $2.7 billion, up 4% year-on-year.

That figure was 1% below the quarterly average of the first half. Investors will be on the lookout to see if CBA can recapture some of its previous earnings momentum. Given the size of the company, CBA will provide an early indication of the overall health of the Australian banking sector.

Shares are scheduled to trade ex-dividend on 19 August.

2. Rio Tinto — already reported

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) has already provided some relief to ASX investors. The mining giant reported on 29 July and set the benchmark for the season, with underlying EBITDA rising 28% to US$14.8 billion.

The interim dividend jumped 43% to 211 US cents per share.

Copper EBITDA surged 84% to US$5.7 billion.

Rio Tinto shares go ex-dividend on 13 August, with payment on 24 September.

3. BHP Group — 17 August

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) rose 62% in FY26 to finish at $59.40 on 30 June.

Its June quarter operational review carried a warning, with FY27 copper production guided to 1,650 to 1,800 kilotonnes.

That compares with 1,953 kilotonnes across FY26, largely reflecting falling grades at Escondida.

Investors will be looking to validate the bull case behind BHP shares. This will also be the first full-year result under a new chief executive.

4. CSL — 18 August

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) reports on 18 August.

The company has guided to FY26 revenue of around US$15.2 billion and NPATA of approximately US$3.1 billion.

CSL has also flagged roughly US$5 billion of additional non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27.

Half-year NPATA came in at US$1.923 billion, leaving about US$1.177 billion required in the second half.

Any update, whether positive or negative, on the deferred Seqirus demerger will move the stock significantly.

5. Northern Star Resources — 20 August

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) sold 1.543 million ounces of gold across FY26.

All-in sustaining costs of $2,698 per ounce landed within guidance.

Audited results and FY27 guidance both arrive on 20 August.

The company deferred that guidance while it assesses early performance from the KCGM mill expansion.

Foolish takeaway

This ASX reporting season will reward preparation far more than reaction.

The share price move on the day usually depends less on the reported numbers than on what management says about the year ahead.

Rio Tinto has already shown what a beat looks like this cycle. Whether the banks, the healthcare names and the gold miners can match it remains the open question.

Set a reminder for the dates that matter to your holdings, and read the outlook statements rather than just the headline profit.

The post Your August ASX reporting season calendar: 5 results that matter most appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to sink

The Australian share market looks set for a disappointing start to the week despite a positive session on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 85 points or 0.95% lower. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.7%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1%.

Oil prices rise

ASX 200 energy shares including Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a positive start to the week after oil prices rose on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was up 1.3% to US$84.67 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was up 1.2% to US$87.93 a barrel. However, OPEC agreed over the weekend to a September production hike, which could weigh on prices.

Fortescue shares upgraded

Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares are no longer a sell according to analysts at Bell Potter. This morning, the broker upgraded the iron ore miner's shares to a hold rating with a price target of $17.40. It said: "We lift our rating to Hold from Sell on recent share price depreciation but do not yet see the positive catalysts to re-enter the stock. Our NPV-based valuation is lowered 4%, to $17.40/sh."

Gold price falls

It could be a subdued start to the week for ASX 200 gold shares Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price pulled back on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was down 1.3% to US$4,107 an ounce. This couldn't stop the precious metal from having its best month since February.

Buy Catalyst Metals shares

Bell Potter thinks Catalyst Metals Ltd (ASX: CYL) shares are being undervalued by the market. This morning, in response to the gold miner's quarterly update, the broker has retained its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $13.25. It commented: "4QFY26 provided record production, costs below guidance and +A$54m cash. FY27 production, cost guidance and strategy a significant near-term catalyst. We lower our TP to $13.25/sh and retain Buy. EPS changes: FY26 +5%, FY27 -16%, FY28 -9%."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Thursday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rise

It looks set to be another positive session for Australian investors on Thursday despite a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 34 points or 0.4% higher this morning. In late trade in the United States, the Dow Jones is down 1.3%, the S&P 500 is 0.1% lower, and the Nasdaq is up 0.3%.

Domino's FY 2026 update

Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (ASX: DMP) shares will be on watch today after the pizza chain operator released an update on its expectations for FY 2026. The company expects to report underlying NPAT in the range of $118 million to $122 million. This is consistent with its previously communicated guidance. Domino's also advised that it expects to recognise total balance sheet write-downs of approximately $259 million for the financial year.

Oil prices jump

ASX 200 energy shares including Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have a good session after oil prices jumped overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is up 6.8% to US$84.65 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is up 7.75% to US$90.61 a barrel. Oil prices jumped in response to reports that US President Donald Trump has threatened to hit Iran hard.

Buy Liontown shares

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR) shares could be undervalued according to analysts at Bell Potter. In response to the lithium miner's quarterly update, this morning, the broker has retained its buy rating with a reduced price target of $1.90 (from $2.90). It said: "With recent trading weakness, LTR's EV is around $3.3b with spot SC6 prices at US$2,070/t and net cash of $246m. The last time LTR was trading at this EV (early November 2025), SC6 prices were US$1,000/t (admittedly trending higher) and net debt was $274m. Since this date, the underground ramp-up has been further derisked."

Gold price climbs

It looks set to be a good session for ASX 200 gold shares Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) on Thursday after the gold price jumped overnight. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is up 1.5% to US$4,100 an ounce. Traders were bidding gold higher after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold.

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Thursday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold stock closed yesterday trading for $20.25. In early morning trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for $20.36 apiece, up 0.5%. This sees the share price up 27.9% over the past 12 months.

For some context, the ASX 200 is 0.8% today, and up 3.6% in a year.

Today's performance follows the release of Northern Star's June quarter operations update (Q4 FY 2026).

Here's what's happening.

Northern Star shares gain on gold sales boost

Investors are bidding up Northern Star shares today after the company reported gold sales of 433,482 ounces over the three-month period, up 14% quarter on quarter.

The miner produced that gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,651 per ounce.

A strong June quarter saw Northern Star sell 1.543 million ounces of gold over the full FY 2026 year. And full-year AISC of $2,698 per ounce was within the company's cost guidance. Management estimated FY 2026 earnings to be in the range of $2.86 billion to $2.95 billion. That compares to cash earnings of $2.87 billion in FY 2025.

Returning to Q4, Northern Star achieved quarterly underlying free cash flow of $206 million.

Turning to the balance sheet, as at 30 June, the ASX 200 mining stock held cash and bullion of $1.235 billion, after its $129 million share buyback expenditures.

And on the major project front, commissioning is underway and on schedule for the stage 1 KCGM Mill Expansion Project, which will increase the mill's processing capacity to 27 million tonnes per year.

What did management say?

Commenting on the results helping lift Northern Star shares today, managing director Stuart Tonkin said:

The June quarter delivered improved operational performance and positive net mine cashflow of $443 million demonstrating the quality of our portfolio and reinforcing the long-term value potential of the business.

With the commissioning of the KCGM Mill Expansion Project now underway, Northern Star is well positioned to deliver significant shareholder returns.

What's next for Northern Star shares?

Looking at what could impact the Northern Star share price in the months ahead, the miner said it will report its FY 2027 sales and production guidance on 20 August, when it will also release its audited FY 2026 results.

The miner noted:

Given the KCGM Mill Expansion has recently entered first-phase commissioning, the company considers it prudent to allow a short, further period of time to assess initial performance and incorporate early operating data before forming its view on FY27 group guidance.

The year ahead will also see a changing of the guard, with new managing director and CEO, Suresh Vadnagra, taking the helm on 5 October.

The post Northern Star shares in the green today as gold sales lift 14% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Northern Star Resources report?

• June quarter gold sold: 433koz at AISC of A$2,651/oz (US$1,821/oz)
• FY26 gold sold: 1,543koz at AISC of A$2,698/oz (within guidance)
• Group underlying free cash flow: A$206 million; net mine cash: A$443 million (June quarter)
• All three centres generated FY26 net mine cashflow of A$1,179 million
• KCGM Mill Expansion Project Stage 1 commissioning underway (on time)
• Cash and bullion: A$1,235 million after A$129 million spent on share buy-back

What else do investors need to know?

The KCGM Mill Expansion Project achieved a key milestone as commissioning of Stage 1 commenced, increasing processing capacity to 27Mtpa. This is expected to enhance operational efficiency and gold recovery once fully ramped up in the coming year.

Northern Star has announced that Suresh Vadnagra will commence as the new Managing Director and CEO from 5 October 2026, bringing global mining leadership experience. The company continued its buy-back, purchasing A$129 million of shares during the quarter.

Exploration investment remains strong, with A$58 million spent in the June quarter—supporting growth projects like the Hemi Project, for which a final investment decision is targeted in late FY27. The company's cash earnings for FY26 are projected to land between A$2,860 million and A$2,950 million.

What did Northern Star Resources management say?

Northern Star's managing director, Stuart Tonkin, commented:

The June quarter delivered improved operational performance and positive net mine cashflow of A$443 million demonstrating the quality of our portfolio and reinforcing the long-term value potential of the business. With the commissioning of the KCGM Mill Expansion Project now underway, Northern Star is well positioned to deliver significant shareholder returns.

What's next for Northern Star Resources?

Northern Star will release its FY27 group guidance alongside its FY26 financial results on 20 August 2026. As the KCGM expansion ramps up, the company will monitor plant performance before providing detailed production and cost outlooks for the next financial year.

Major shutdowns are scheduled across operations in the September quarter, while exploration and project development will continue. The Hemi Project will proceed with aquifer recharge trials and remains on track for a late FY27 investment decision.

Northern Star Resources share price snapshot

Despite falling heavily from its high, the Northern Star share price remains up 27% on a 12-month basis. This compares favourably to a 2.8% gain by the S&P/ASX 200 index (ASX: XJO).

View Original Announcement

The post Northern Star Resources share price on watch amid strong June quarter and KCGM expansion progress appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to build on this on Wednesday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 to rise again

The Australian share market looks set for another good session on Wednesday despite a mixed night on Wall Street. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 72 points or 0.8% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 1% and the S&P 500 climbed 0.2%, but the Nasdaq fell 0.2% on chip stock weakness.

Oil prices tumble

ASX 200 energy shares including Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) and Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) could have another tough session on Wednesday after oil prices tumbled again overnight. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price is down 4.2% to US$79.14 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price is down 5% to US$83.93 a barrel. Traders have been selling oil prices down this week in response to easing US-Iran tensions.

Buy DroneShield shares 

Bell Potter continues to rate DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) shares as a buy. However, due to increasing competition, it has cut its price target on the counter-drone technology company's shares materially to $2.50 (from $4.80). It said: "DRO acted as the primary threat and detection layer for Kansas City during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, however, of the 11 states awarded US$325m for C-UAS protection, this was the only major contract won by DRO, likely representing US$5-10m. This result, which was below our expectations, signals lower levels of share for DRO initially in the US Public Safety market than that held by incumbent Public Safety suppliers, such as Axon Enterprises."

Gold price falls

ASX 200 gold shares Westgold Resources Ltd (ASX: WGX) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) could have a poor session on Wednesday after the gold price dropped. According to CNBC, the gold futures price is down 1.2% to US$4,027.10 an ounce. Traders were selling gold ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

Buy Develop Global shares

Now could be the time to buy Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP) shares. This morning, Bell Potter responded to the mining and mining services company's quarterly update by retaining its buy rating with a trimmed price target of $6.50. It said: "While the Woodlawn restart has generally exceeded expectations with regard to operational performance, we are disappointed by the higher-than-expected operating cost. DVP offers investors strong leverage to copper, zinc and lithium prices. We view M&A activity as a potential short-term catalyst."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Wednesday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The gold miner climbed 4% to $20.69 during Monday morning trading, although the stock remains down around 16% year to date.

Zooming out, however, Northern Star shares have gained roughly 28% over the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up around 1.6% over the same period.

So what's driving the latest move?

Gold and a major investor make headlines

One obvious boost came from the gold price. Gold futures rose around 0.5% to US$4,070.80 an ounce, supporting sentiment across the gold sector.

But Northern Star shares also received a lift after the company revealed a substantial shareholder notice involving US activist investor Elliott Investment Management.

Elliott Associates and Elliott International disclosed a combined long position through cash-settled equity swaps covering 76,194,999 Northern Star shares. Based on the current share price, that represents exposure worth more than $1.5 billion.

The reference prices for those derivatives range from $17.37 to $31.66 per share, suggesting Elliott has built a significant position across a range of prices.

Importantly, the derivatives do not give Elliott direct ownership of those shares. However, the size of the position has fuelled speculation about what the activist investor wants next.

Elliott wants change

Northern Star has been under pressure in recent months after Elliott began pushing for improvements, including board renewal and a broader strategic review.

The activist investor has previously criticised the company's production performance and questioned whether the business could unlock more value for shareholders.

That pressure intensified after Northern Star reduced FY26 production guidance in January, cutting its forecast from 1.7 million–1.85 million ounces to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces.

The company ultimately reported FY26 gold sales of 1.543 million ounces, with June quarter sales reaching 433,000 ounces.

Northern Star has responded with several changes, including appointing Suresh Vadnagra as its incoming Managing Director and CEO. He is expected to replace Stuart Tonkin in October.

What's next for Northern Star?

Despite the activist attention, Northern Star continues focusing on its existing strategy.

The company ended the June quarter with $1.25 billion in cash and gold, while continuing its $500 million share buyback program, repurchasing $129 million worth of shares during the quarter.

Its major KCGM mill expansion project also remains on track, with the company targeting an increase in processing capacity from 13 million tonnes per annum to 27 million tonnes when commissioning begins in early FY27.

Foolish Takeaway

Northern Star shares are rising today thanks to a combination of stronger gold prices and renewed investor interest following Elliott's large derivatives position.

Whether Elliott's involvement leads to major strategic changes remains unclear.

For now, investors are watching closely to see whether operational improvements, a stronger gold price, and potential shareholder pressure can help Northern Star unlock more value.

The post Northern Star shares are rising. Is activist investor about to unlock value? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Northern Star Resources announce?

• Elliott Associates and Elliott International declared a combined long position in 76,194,999 Northern Star shares via cash-settled equity swaps
• The reference price for these derivatives ranges from $17.37 to $31.66 per share
• No other relevant interests in Northern Star shares were disclosed by the parties
• No material changes to previously disclosed information
• No short positions or offsets reported as of 24 July 2026

What else do investors need to know?

This disclosure follows requirements set by the Australian Takeovers Panel Guidance Note 20, ensuring transparency when a party builds up a significant position through derivatives. Cash-settled equity swaps do not grant direct voting rights, but they can signal growing influence or interest in the company.

Northern Star's board was formally notified of the derivatives holding. Investors may want to watch for any future market moves or strategic announcements involving these significant shareholders.

What's next for Northern Star Resources?

It's business as usual for Northern Star as the company maintains its commitment to regular disclosure and governance standards. The presence of major institutional investors through derivatives may prompt further scrutiny or speculation about strategic intentions, but at this stage, no changes to company strategy have been announced.

The company will keep the market updated with any material developments relating to its share register or corporate activity.

Northern Star Resources share price snapshot

Northern Star Resources share price has been a strong performer over the past 12 months, rising 25% since this time last year. This is materially better than the ASX 200 Index, which is up modestly over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Northern Star Resources discloses major shareholder's equity derivative position appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

By investing your superannuation wisely, you might be able to generate a regular cash flow high enough to live the retirement of your dreams.

The question is: How much do you actually need in your super to be able to get the passive income you want when you transition to your pension phase?

Let's investigate, using an annual $100,000 passive income as an example.

How much do I need in my superannuation to get a passive income of $100,000 every year?

To calculate how much you need in your superannuation, you need to divide your annual passive income by the dividend yield of your overall portfolio.

Obviously, the catch is that the answer varies depending on what your dividend yield is.

It means a portfolio with a dividend yield of around 6% only needs to be half the size of one with a dividend yield of around 3% to generate the same level of passive income. 

Say your overall portfolio has a dividend yield of around 3%, you'll need a balance of around $3.3 million to earn $100,000 per year in passive income.

Of course, $3.3 million is a huge figure, and this level of superannuation isn't achievable for everyone.

But the good news is, as your portfolio's dividend yield increases, the superannuation balance required to earn the same passive income decreases. 

So if the yield of your portfolio is around 4%, for example, your balance would need to be closer to $2.5 million to earn the same dividend income.

For a 5% yielding portfolio, you'd need a balance of closer to $2 million to earn the same amount.

Increase that to a 6%, 7%, or 8% dividend yield, and you're looking at closer to $1.6 million, $1.4 million, or $1.25 million, respectively. 

And so on…

You'd still earn $100,000 per year in passive income from each of these portfolio sizes.

What ASX shares can I buy around these dividend yields?

There are a huge range of ASX dividend shares available for your superannuation investment. Here are some of my favourites.

Lower-yielding ASX dividend-paying shares such as Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES), Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST), AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd (ASX: SOL) are solid and reliable stocks that offer a yield of around 2% to 3%.

For a mid-range yielding ASX dividend option, I'd look at Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN), QBE Insurance Group (ASX: QBE), Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) or defensive assets like Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS). These all pay a yield around 3% to 5%. 

For a higher 5% to 6% dividend yield, I'd look at reliable payers like APA Group (ASX: APA) or Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG).

Lendlease Group (ASX: LLC) and Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW) yield around 7% to 8%.

If you want to take on more risk and go for a much higher-yielding ASX stock, my picks would be something like IPH Ltd (ASX: IPH), Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF), or the BetaShares Australian Top 20 Equities Yield Maximiser Complex ETF (ASX: YMAX). These typically yield anywhere between 9% and 12%.

The post How much superannuation is needed to target a $100,000 annual passive income? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Will the market be able to bounce back from this on Monday? Here are five things to watch:

ASX 200 expected to rebound

The Australian share market looks set for a good start to the week despite a mixed session on Wall Street on Friday. According to the latest SPI futures, the ASX 200 is expected to open the day 48 points or 0.55% higher. In the United States, the Dow Jones rose 0.45%, the S&P 500 edged 0.05% higher, and the Nasdaq fell 0.65%.

Oil prices fall

ASX 200 energy shares Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) and Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) could have a poor start to the week after oil prices pulled back on Friday night. According to Bloomberg, the WTI crude oil price was down 3.1% to US$89.31 a barrel and the Brent crude oil price was down 3.9% to US$96.78 a barrel. This was driven by US-Iran peace talk optimism.

AFIC results

Australian Foundation Investment Co Ltd (ASX: AFI) shares will be on watch on Monday. That's because the investment company is scheduled to release its full-year results before the market open. During the first half, AFIC reported a 4.6% decline in net profit to $147 million. As well as its results, the company is also expected to announce a fully franked 14.5 cents per share final dividend and a 2.5 cents per share special dividend, together with the continuation of its on-market share buyback.

Gold price rises

It could be a positive start to the week for ASX 200 gold shares Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) after the gold price rose on Friday night. According to CNBC, the gold futures price was up 0.5% to US$4,070.8 an ounce. A pullback in oil prices reduced rate hike bets and boosted the precious metal.

Buy Integrated Research shares

Bell Potter has named Integrated Research Ltd (ASX: IRI) shares as a buy with an improved price target of 38 cents this morning. This follows the release of a mixed trading update from the global provider of experience management solutions for business-critical technology environments. It said: "We maintain our BUY recommendation and note that the shares are currently trading at close to cash backing. Given the low EV, we expect some update on capital management and/or other initiatives at the release of the FY26 result next month. We currently assume the resumption of modest dividends from FY27 onwards but the current share price and significant cash position suggest something more material could be done."

The post 5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.