We're helping you monitor ex-dividend dates with an article every Friday.

Here are some of the ASX shares due to trade ex-dividend next week.

To be eligible for the dividend, you must own the ASX share before its ex-dividend date.

ASX shares going ex-dividend next week

Check out which ASX shares go ex-dividend today.

The post 33 ASX shares going ex-dividend next week appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Aurelia Metals report?

• Total revenue jumped 40% to $480.2 million
• EBITDA rose 55% to $189.2 million, with EBITDA margin up to 39.4%
• Net profit after tax increased 69% to $82.7 million
• Operating cash flow grew 10% to $142.8 million
• No drawn debt at year-end, with cash balance at $143.9 million
• Declared fully franked final dividend of 1.0 cent per share (approx. $17.2 million total distribution)

What else do investors need to know?

Aurelia Metals delivered higher gold and base metal production than the prior year, with group gold output at 50.4 thousand ounces, exceeding revised guidance. The company's operating costs rose to $315.3 million, reflecting increased mining activity and the ramp-up at the Federation mine.

Development of the Great Cobar project continues on schedule, targeting first ore in 2028. The Peak Plant Expansion is progressing as planned, recently commissioning a new tailings thickener and advancing the Tertiary Ball Mill project to boost processing capacity.

Aurelia completed a major refinancing in June without drawing on any debt facilities, ensuring a robust financial position to support ongoing projects and the declared dividend.

What did Aurelia Metals management say?

Interim Chief Executive Officer Martin Cummings commented:

FY26 was a year of strong operational and financial performance for Aurelia, with material increases in EBITDA, net profit after tax and operating cash flows. Gold production exceeded the revised guidance range and all other metals were produced within guidance. Along with strong metal prices, these results supported robust margins and cash generation. This performance has enabled the Board to declare a fully franked dividend of 1 cent per share

Throughout the year, we continued to advance our growth strategy to lift mining rates and expand processing capacity. Development of Great Cobar remains on track for first production in FY28, while the Peak Plant Expansion projects continued with commissioning of the Tailings Thickener, and the continued progress of the Tertiary Ball Mill project. Together, these projects enable an increase in processing capacity from 800ktpa to 1.1 – 1.2Mtpa.

Aurelia is well positioned to continue delivering strong production while advancing its pipeline of growth opportunities across the Cobar Basin, supported by our recently completed refinancing and strong balance sheet.

What's next for Aurelia Metals?

For FY27, Aurelia is guiding for gold production between 50,000 and 60,000 ounces and expects higher output across copper, zinc, and lead. Group operating costs are anticipated to increase as production ramps up, but unit costs should fall as the plant expansion comes online.

Medium-term, the company is focused on completing Great Cobar and the New Occidental Tailings Retreatment projects, which are expected to extend mine life and support stable production. Exploration spend is set to rise as new drilling platforms become available, particularly at Great Cobar.

Aurelia Metals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Aurelia Metals shares have risen 89%, outperforming the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO).

View Original Announcement

The post Aurelia Metals: FY26 profit surges, dividend announced appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Aurelia Metals report?

• Appointment of Steve Badenhorst as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer
• Badenhorst brings 35+ years of global mining and operational leadership experience
• Recent leadership roles include Group Head of Asset Management at Rio Tinto and COO at Rio Tinto Aluminium Pacific Operations
• TFR (Total Fixed Remuneration) of $732,500 per annum, plus short- and long-term incentives
• Badenhorst commences on 6 October 2026

What else do investors need to know?

Aurelia Metals operates three underground base metal mines across its Peak and Federation sites in the Cobar Basin, NSW, and is developing its Great Cobar copper project. The appointment follows a comprehensive recruitment process to secure a leader with strong operational credentials and long-term strategic vision.

Outgoing interim CEO Martin Cummings will step down when Badenhorst begins his role. Aurelia's board expressed gratitude for Cummings' leadership during the transition period.

What did Aurelia Metals management say?

Commenting on his appointment, Steve Badenhorst said:

I am honoured to be appointed Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Aurelia, to lead the Company through its next phase of growth. Aurelia has a high quality asset base, a strong team and significant opportunities to create value through safe, predictable operational performance, resource development and continued exploration success.

I am excited to return to underground hard rock mining and look forward to working closely with the Board and the Executive Leadership Team to execute the Company's strategy to realise the potential of the Company's operations and highly prospective exploration portfolio to create long-term value for shareholders.

What's next for Aurelia Metals?

With Mr Badenhorst set to start in early October, Aurelia Metals will soon be under experienced new leadership expected to drive its growth strategy forward. The company aims to deliver on its plans for resource development and to progress major projects like Great Cobar, focusing on creating sustainable long-term value for shareholders.

Investors can watch for updates on strategic initiatives, operational improvements, and exploration results as the new CEO settles in.

Aurelia Metals share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Aurelia Metals shares have risen 116%, significantly outperforming the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO).

View Original Announcement

The post Aurelia Metals appoints Steve Badenhorst as new CEO to lead next growth phase appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

They've picked two gold companies and a copper company, which they think could outperform.

Let's see who they like.

Strickland Metals Ltd (ASX: STK)

Shaw and Partners has just initiated coverage on this company, which owns the Rogozna gold and base metals project in southern Serbia.

The company's shares are down about 40% over the past 12 months, but the broker thinks they could more than double from this lower base.

Shaw and Partners said the company's "substantial existing resource" of 9.3 million ounces at 1.33 grams per tonne of gold equivalent had high growth potential.

They added:

Optionality across the four Rogozna deposits could potentially allow staged entry and ramp-up of mining and processing. We expect a maiden prefeasibility study late CY27. We find the market is materially undervaluing Rogozna's deposits and overestimating current regulatory concerns. Indeed, Zijin Mining recently increased its STK ownership to 7.4%.

Shaw and Partners said regulatory and project derisking could increase their valuation to 30 cents per share, up from 20 cents, while the current share price is 8.5 cents.

The broker added:

Due to Rogozna's vast scale, STK has substantial further re-rate potential from delivering project studies and progressing towards production.

AIC Mines Ltd (ASX: A1M)

AIC recently announced guidance for the current year and a three-year growth outlook for its Eloise and Jericho copper mines.

The company said it was "an exciting time" as it transitioned from a small-scale, single-mine operation to a 1.5 million tonne per annum dual-mine operation producing 25,000 tonnes per annum of copper concentrate.

For the current year, AIC said it expected to produce 17,500 to 18,000 tonnes of copper, weighted to the second half of the year.

Guidance for the following year was for production of 20,000 to 22,000 tonnes, increasing to 25,000 to 27,000 tonnes in FY29.

Shaw and Partners has a price target of $1.10 on AIC shares, compared to the current price of 69 cents.

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

Shaw and Partners said Aurelia recently delivered "standout" results for its fourth quarter, "highlighted by gold production beating the top end of its recently upgraded guidance, generating the highest quarterly operating cash flow since 2018, and sharply improving balance sheet liquidity following the close of a new financing package''.

The broker added:

The operational turnaround, outstanding cash generation, and finalised debt structure sets a firm foundation for FY27.

Shaw and Partners has a price target of 50 cents on Aurelia shares compared to 33 cents currently.

The post 3 ASX mining companies which could return 50% to 130%: Broker appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is down 5% to 29.5 cents. This morning, this gold miner announced that it has achieved financial close on a $150 million senior secured financing package. It notes that this strengthens its balance sheet and increases liquidity. The company's chief financial officer, Martin Cummings, said: "This refinancing is the culmination of a deliberate strategy and comprehensive process to secure a highly competitive financing package with a flexible structure. The facilities strengthen Aurelia's balance sheet, increase liquidity and provide long-term support for the Company's rehabilitation bonding requirements. The strong level of interest received throughout the process enabled us to assemble a high-quality syndicate of global financial institutions that are well positioned to support Aurelia's next phase of growth."

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT)

The Beach Energy share price is down 7.5% to 87 cents. This is likely to have been driven by a broker note out of Morgans this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the energy producer's shares to a sell rating (from hold) with an 81 cents price target (from $1.10). It said: "We mark-to-market our second half estimates for weaker spot gas prices, while also trimming our Waitsia output forecasts for FY26-28 on continuing struggles. After downgrading our Q4 estimates for daily production rates, we see potential for BPT to fall just short of its FY27 group production guidance. While BPT's share price has already been under pressure, its earnings outlook has declined at a faster rate, with its forward EV/EBITDA actually rising."

Insurance Australia Group Ltd (ASX: IAG)

The IAG share price is down 4% to $7.95. This could also have been driven by a broker note. This morning, Macquarie downgraded the insurance giant's shares to a neutral rating (from outperform) with a reduced price target of $8.50 (from $9.00). It made the move on the belief that AI could disrupt insurance providers.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

The Rio Tinto share price is down 2% to $172.37. Investors have been selling the mining giant's shares following a sizeable pullback in the copper price overnight. This led to significant weakness in the miner's NYSE listed shares on Wall Street on Tuesday night.

The post Why Aurelia Metals, Beach Energy, IAG, and Rio Tinto shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The analyst team is now expecting prices for the red metal to be 9% stronger this calendar year, an impressive 33% up on their previous estimates for 2027 and 14% up on their 2028 estimates.

These forecasts have flowed through into their price targets for Australia's major ASX copper miners, with a slew of upgrades announced in a recent research note to clients.

Let's see which companies they like.

Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)

In terms of pure-play ASX copper companies, Sandfire is Macquarie's top pick, with the analyst team keen on its diversified operating base, improving balance sheet, and growing pipeline.

Macquarie's analyst team said:

The key attraction is the combination of established production, low C1 cost performance and near-term free cash flow leverage to copper and by-product prices. Growth optionality is also improving on management's disciplined approach to M&A.  

Macquarie said the company's joint venture with Havilah Resources Ltd (ASX: HAV) also added a potential long-life copper-gold development option in South Australia over the medium term.

Macquarie has a price target of $21 per share on Sandfire compared to $20.86 currently.

Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC)

The Macquarie team have an outperform rating on Capstone, saying the company offers a more leveraged exposure through its diversified Americas portfolio.

They said:

We see the key attraction as a combination of operating scale, copper beta and self funded growth, with balance sheet capacity improving; net debt reduced to US$738m at 1QCY26. The main risks remain execution at Mantoverde and Santo Domingo sanctioning (both in the 4QCY36), and input-cost inflation, but we view the risk/reward as attractive given strong growth outlook at an attractive multiple.

Macquarie has an $18 price target on Capstone shares compared to $15.41 currently.

Looking at some other companies in less detail, Macquarie has upped its price target for Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI) from 40 cents to 43 cents. That would constitute a 38.7% return if achieved.

For Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS), Macquarie now has a price target of 73 cents, up from 70 cents. That compares to the current price of 42 cents.

Carnaby Resources Ltd (ASX: CNB) now has a price target of 80 cents, up from 70 cents, compared to 69 cents currently.

And for FireFly Metals Ltd (ASX: FFM), the price target has increased from $2.30 to $2.50, compared to $2.04 currently.

The post Macquarie has upgraded its copper price outlook. Let's see which ASX shares they like appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

I've selected three reports from Macquarie on companies which fit the bill, two of which reported just in recent days.

So let's have a look what they're saying.

Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)

This week, Whitehaven Coal released its quarterly report. The company revealed it had generated sales of 6.8 million tonnes of coal for the March quarter, broadly in line with the December quarter.

But while production was flat, the company received better prices for both its metallurgical and thermal coal. Given the continued troubles in the Middle East, this is expected to continue.

As the company said:

Long-term demand for seaborne high caloric value thermal coal, together with a structural supply shortfall from underinvestment in new mines and depletion of existing supply, remains a driver for longer-term price support for high caloric value thermal coal. In developing economies, thermal coal continues to play a critical role in delivering affordable and reliable access to electricity. This focus on energy security is expected to further support long-term demand for high-quality thermal coal. Disruptions are likely to continue to impact supply across the global energy complex for a period following cessation of Middle East tensions.

Macquarie has a price target of $9.75 on Whitehaven shares, compared with $8.28 currently.

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

Also this week, Aurelia Metals reported gold production of 13,000 ounces for the quarter, and that it had increased its cash balance from $85.6 million at the end of December to $94.7 million at the end of March.

Aurelia also increased its full-year production guidance, saying gold production was now expected to come in at 45,000 to 50,000 ounces, compared with the previous guidance of 35,000 to 40,000 ounces.

Forecast copper production, however, reduced from 3,000 to 4000 tonnes to 2.5-3000 tonnes.

Macquarie said in its research note on the company that gold production came in 17% higher than consensus estimates, although the company's base metals production was weak.

Macquarie maintained its price target of 40 cents on the company's shares. This is materially above its current share price of 31 cents, which increased 9.8% on Wednesday.

Amcor Ltd (ASX: AMC)

Amcor is yet to report its quarterly results, which are scheduled to come out on May 6, however Macquarie has put out a research note in advance.

The broker said they were expecting $200-$250 million in adverse working capital movements from an increase in raw materials costs, "which is likely to reduce AMC's $1.8-$1.9 billion full year free cash flow guidance''.

Macquarie has reduced their earnings per share assumptions and therefore reduced their price target on Amcor from $86.50 to $84.63, however this is still well above the current share price of $54.13.

The post Macquarie names 3 ASX shares to buy appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

29Metals Ltd (ASX: 29M)

The 29Metals share price is up 8% to 23.7 cents. This follows the release of the copper miner's quarterly update. 29Metals revealed that copper production was 6.4kt with C1 costs of US$4.25 per pound. While this compares unfavourably to the previous quarter, it appears to have been better than feared. It also stated that: "Considering various factors, it is expected that existing liquidity will be sufficient to fully fund the revised plan for 2026 and maintain growth investments at Gossan Valley and exploration."

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is up 9% to 30.5 cents. This may have been driven by a broker note out of Ord Minnett this morning. According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the gold miner's shares with an improved price target of 50 cents. In addition, the team at Macquarie has retained its outperform rating and 40 cents price target on Aurelia Metals shares.

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)

The Codan share price is up 16% to $42.23. The catalyst for this has been the release of a trading update from the technology company this morning. Codan revealed that the second half has been stronger than expected. As a result, it now expects FY 2026 EBIT to hit $235 million and net profit to reach $170 million.  This will be an increase of over 60% from last year. The company said: "In DTC, strong demand from defence customers for unmanned systems, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to drive growth in our software-defined radios (SDRs). As a result, the Communications business is expected to achieve revenue growth at the top end of the 15% to 20% range for the full year FY26."

oOh!Media Ltd (ASX: OML)

The oOh!Media share price is up 40% to $1.19. This follows news that the media company has received a takeover offer from Pacific Equity Partners (PEP). The company advised that it received an unsolicited, non-binding indicative offer from PEP to acquire 100% of oOh!Media at $1.40 per share via a scheme of arrangement. In response, it said: "The Board of oOh!, together with its advisers, is considering and evaluating the Proposal and will update shareholders in due course. There is no certainty that the Proposal will result in a binding offer or that any transaction will eventuate."

The post Why 29Metals, Aurelia Metals, Codan, and oOhMedia shares are racing higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Both have rated the company a buy and have bullish price targets on the gold producer. We'll get to the details of those forecasts later.

Solid quarter

Firstly, let's have a look at what Aurelia reported this week.

The company said it had produced 13,000 ounces of gold during the March quarter, as well as 600 tonnes of copper, 6,900 tonnes of zinc, and 4,300 tonnes of lead.

The company's cash balance increased from $85.6 million at the end of December to $94.7 million at the end of March.

Aurelia also increased its full-year production guidance, saying gold production was now expected to come in at 45,000 to 50,000 ounces, compared with the previous guidance of 35,000 to 40,000 ounces.

Forecast copper production, however, reduced from 3,000 to 4000 tonnes to 2.5-3000 tonnes.

Growth capital spending would also be reduced to $45 to $60 million from $65 to $70 million, due to some deferrals.

Aurelia also said its process plant expansion project was on track to increase capacity from 800,000 tonnes per annum to 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes per annum, with ramp-up planned throughout FY27.

Managing Director Bryan Quinn said regarding the quarter:

The March quarter delivered higher gold production of 13koz, free cash flow generation, and improved FY26 gold guidance. Costs were in line with guidance and free cash flow was generated after adding to restricted cash for rehabilitation bonds, investments in growth capital and payment of taxes. This was achieved while also building ROM stocks at Peak during the quarter, in preparation for production growth in future quarters. The March quarter also saw us progress the refinancing process, culminating in execution of a financing commitment letter as announced in early April. This materially strengthens the balance sheet and enhances liquidity, positioning Aurelia to execute its strategy with greater flexibility and confidence.

Consensus is that shares look cheap

The analyst team at Moelis said Aurelia's quarterly was "reasonably consistent with our expectations", and demonstrated that the company could generate meaningful cash flow while concurrently executing multiple growth initiatives.

They added:

If AMI can sustain the drumbeat of delivery, we expect the stock to progressively rerate – shedding the discount it has carried since the material downgrade in the middle of CY25. With favourable metal prices, the business is well placed to convert improving production outcomes into accelerating near-term cashflow.

Moelis has a buy rating and a price target of 42 cents on Aurelia shares, compared with 28 cents currently.

Meanwhile, the team at Shaw and Partners called it "another strong quarter".

They noted that the company's growth projects were on track, while the company was also looking for a new Chief Executive, which should also provide impetus.

Shaw and Partners has a 50-cent price target on Aurelia shares.

Aurelia Metals is valued at $448.8 million.

The post 2 brokers rate this ASX gold stock a buy, with 50% upside forecast appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

AUB Group Ltd (ASX: AUB)

The AUB Group share price is down 6% to $30.01. This morning, this insurance broker network company announced the successful completion of a share placement. AUB raised $400 million at a discount of $29.40 per new share. The company advised that the placement saw significant demand and support from both existing and new shareholders. AUB's CEO, Mike Emmett, said: "We are pleased with the outcome and thank our shareholders for their strong support for the Placement and the transaction. We are excited for Prestige to join the AUB Group and look forward to accelerating our UK Retail strategy to deliver value for shareholders."

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is down 3% to 34 cents. This morning, this gold miner announced that its CEO, Bryan Quinn, will be stepping down to pursue other career opportunities. Mr Quinn plans to remain with the company until the end of July. This is to ensure a smooth leadership transition and maintain the momentum across key operational and growth initiatives. Quinn commented: "I have greatly enjoyed my time working with the Aurelia team. It has been a privilege to lead the company as we improved market value, strengthened our strategic position, and built a strong leadership team with a performance-driven culture."

DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO)

The DroneShield share price is down 3.5% to $4.04. Investors have been selling this counter-drone technology company's shares since the release of its update this week. While it was a strong update, investors appear concerned by a reduction in its sales pipeline. Bell Potter wasn't concerned and has retained its buy rating and $5.00 price target on its shares. It said: "We believe DRO should see material contracts flowing from its $2.1b potential sales pipeline over the next 3-6 months as defence budgets roll over to FY26e."

Elevra Lithium Ltd (ASX: ELV)

The Elevra Lithium share price is down 14% to $7.89. This morning, this lithium miner released its quarterly update, which appears to have fallen short of expectations. Elevra reported a disappointing 15% quarter on quarter decline in spodumene concentrate production to 44,154 dmt. The company also revealed that its received US$998 per tonne for its lithium, whereas its unit operating costs were US$812 per tonne.

The post Why AUB, Aurelia Metals, DroneShield, and Elevra Lithium shares are dropping today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

This comes after the miner released a strong quarterly update that reinforced confidence in both its near-term cash flow and longer-term growth plans.

Here's what got investors excited from the announcement.

Strong production drove a big jump in cash flow

Aurelia reported gold production of 11.7koz for the quarter, taking year-to-date output to 22.1koz and keeping the company on track to deliver FY26 guidance of 40koz at the midpoint.

Base metals production was also solid, with copper, zinc, and lead volumes all increasing quarter on quarter.

Crucially, this translated into operating cash flow of $42.9 million from the Cobar region, a sharp 5x increase from the prior quarter.

That level of cash generation allowed Aurelia to fund growth capital, exploration, tax payments, and bond requirements without putting pressure on the balance sheet.

At quarter end, the company held $85.6 million in cash, with total available liquidity of around $116 million.

Federation mine continues to impress

One of the standout features of the update was the Federation mine, where the ramp-up continues ahead of plan.

Ore mined increased by more than 20% quarter on quarter, while grades improved materially as mining advanced further into the orebody. Zinc, lead, and gold grades all rose, supporting expectations that Federation will be a meaningful contributor to group production and cash flow in FY26 and beyond.

Management also flagged the potential to exceed planned volumes this financial year if current momentum continues.

Growth projects remain firmly on track

Beyond current operations, investors were reassured by steady progress at Great Cobar, Aurelia's high-grade copper growth project.

Mine development advanced to around 500 metres per quarter, key infrastructure works are underway, and project milestones remain on schedule. Combined with planned plant upgrades at Peak, Aurelia is positioning itself to lift throughput capacity materially over the next 12–18 months.

The company reiterated its longer-term ambition of reaching ~40ktpa of copper equivalent production by FY28, funded largely through internal cash flow.

Foolish bottom line

Aurelia's update showed disciplined execution across production, costs, and capital allocation at a time when commodity prices are doing some of the heavy lifting.

The market liked that this translated into meaningful cash generation with signs of more progress to come.

Following today's increase, Aurelia Metals' share price is now up 18% year to date. For investors, this share price move reflects growing confidence that Aurelia can convert operational momentum into sustainable cash flow, while steadily building toward its next phase of growth. When strong commodity prices meet solid execution, the market pays attention.

The post Here's why Aurelia Metals shares are up 5% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's according to the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), who forecast some strong outperformance from the miner.

Aurelia Metals shares closed on Wednesday trading for 25.0 cents apiece. That sees the ASX All Ords mining stock up 21% over the past 12 months and up 39% year to date.

Investors and the analysts at Macquarie both gained more insight into the company's performance on Tuesday, following the release of Aurelia's September quarter update (Q1 FY 2026).

What did the ASX All Ords mining stock report?

For the three months to 30 September, Aurelia produced 10,400 ounces of gold, 500 tonnes of copper, 6,500 tonnes of zinc, and 3,800 tonnes of lead.

The miner reported operating costs of $70.0 million, which includes costs relating to the ramp up of its Federation mine as it transitions to commercial production.

The ASX All Ords mining stock also reaffirmed its full year FY 2026 production, cost and capital guidance. And the company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $88.1 million.

Commenting on the first quarter performance, Aurelia CEO Bryan Quinn said:

The Great Cobar project has commenced and is delivering in line with our commitments, with 448 metres of development already completed. Our focus on rapid development towards the orebody will also enable us to set up exploration platforms for further drilling into the area below the Mineral Resource.

Mining at Federation continues to ramp up ahead of our budget year to date. It is particularly pleasing how well the material is performing in the Peak processing plant.

Why Macquarie is bullish on Aurelia shares

Following the release of the Aurelia's Q1 results, here's what Macquarie's analysts said they liked:

Gold production slightly higher than forecast: 1QFY26 gold production of 10.4koz was a 5%/4% beat versus MQe/VA. AMI is tracking well versus the midpoint of gold production guidance with 26% of gold produced versus FY26 guidance. At Federation ore mined volumes continued to ramp up (19% increase QoQ) to 63kt, and development metres ramped up to 1,481m (31% higher QoQ), close to AMI's target of 1,500m/qtr.

And here's what they didn't like:

Weaker by-products: AMI had weak by-product production in 1QFY26, particularly copper which at 0.5kt was a 43%/42% miss versus MQe/VA. Lead production of 3.8kt was 16%/27% lower than MQe/VA and zinc production of 6.5kt was 7%/11% lower than MQe/VA. Versus midpoint of Cu/Pb/Zn guidance AMI has produced 13%/21%/23%.

The broker added, "Positively, AMI has indicated that it is expecting an uplift in copper production during 2QFY26 after high-grade copper stops are expected to come online at Peak."

Connecting the dots, Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Aurelia Metals share with a 12-month price target of 40.0 cents per share.

That represents a potential upside of 60.0% for this ASX All Ords mining stock from yesterday's closing price.

The post Why Macquarie expects this ASX All Ords mining stock to surge 60% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Somewhere in between lies a group of lesser-known miners quietly delivering meaningful outcomes.

And one such small-cap mining business has just caught the attention of analysts at respected investment house Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG).

Established miner with growth credentials

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI) is a mining and exploration company with a strategic landholding in the geologically revered Cobar Basin of New South Wales.

The group operates three underground mines across two operations – Federation and Peak.

At Federation, it churns out zinc, lead, gold, copper, and silver.

And notably, the company is in the process of ramping up the mining rates at this project.

In a nutshell, Federation only commenced commercial production at the start of July.

The mined tonnes at Federation are now projected to rise from 100,000 tonnes per annum in FY25, to more than 300,000 tonnes each year in FY26.

And during FY27, the group expects the mining rate to swell to 600,000 tonnes annually.

At Peak, Aurelia extracts zinc, copper, and gold.

In addition, it is also advancing its Great Cobar copper project towards production.

This undeveloped but promising deposit is also located within the Peak complex and represents further growth potential for the business.

Construction of the mine at Great Cobar commenced just this month with first production expected in FY28.

In turn, Macquarie has now tipped significant upside for Aurelia's share price following the company's quarterly update on Monday, as well as its guidance for FY26 and beyond.

What is Macquarie saying?

In a research note released Tuesday, Macquarie reaffirmed its outperform rating for Aurelia shares following the miner's latest updates.

The broker set a 12-month price target of 27 cents, implying a bumper 38% upside potential from Tuesday's closing price of 19.5 cents.

Commenting on the results, Macquarie noted:

With the company's 3-year outlook and preliminary production already pre-released, today's quarterly report was largely procedural. AMI is entering a capital intensive couple of years as it invests in its Great Cobar development project as well as investing capital to ramp up Federation.

Macquarie pointed to Aurelia's strong financial position, which could act as a key enabler for its growth plans.

At the end of the fourth quarter of FY25, the company held about A$110 million in cash with no drawn debt.

It also retained an undrawn loan note facility of US$23.6m – or about A$36 million – which arms the group with total liquidity of around A$146 million.

Looking ahead, Macquarie highlighted progress on the Great Cobar mine construction as a potential catalyst in the first quarter of FY26, alongside the continued ramp-up of operations at Federation.

The broker also flagged a possible upgrade to the resource base at Federation as another potential value-driving spark for the company.

The post Expert says this ASX All Ords small cap mining stock could rocket 38% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

That's because the ASX shares in this article have been recommended as buys and tipped to rise at least 20% from current levels. Here's what brokers are bullish on right now:

Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH)

The team at Morgans is sticking with this furniture and homewares retailer after the release of a disappointing trading update which revealed that its earnings will be comfortably short of expectations. It explains:

ADH has provided a trading update for FY25, with group EBIT (pre-AASB 16) expected to be between $53.5-57.0m, which was roughly 10% lower than consensus expectations and up 1.2% on the pcp. Sales are expected to be broadly in line with expectations and up 6.2% yoy (Adairs up 9.2%, Mocka up 14.1% and Focus down 7.0%).

However, performance has been impacted by elevated levels of promotional activity and weaker AUD compared to the pcp which has impacted gross margins. We have lowered our EBIT forecast by 15%/14% in FY25 and FY26. We continue to see this business significantly leveraged into a recovery in consumer sentiment.

Morgans has put a buy rating and $2.60 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of $2.00, this implies potential upside of 30% for investors over the next 12 months.

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

Analysts at Macquarie think this gold and copper miner's shares are undervalued following recent weakness. The broker said:

While AMI can be applauded for providing a detailed level of disclosure, perhaps the market has penalised it for its transparency. Although positive FCF generation has been deferred to FY28 due to organic investments, its strong balance sheet (A$107m cash) differentiates it to peers.

Macquarie has an outperform rating and 25 cents price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of 20 cents, this suggests that upside of 25% is possible between now and this time next year.

Resimac Group Ltd (ASX: RMC)

Bell Potter is bullish on this non-bank lender and believes it could be an ASX share to buy now.

Following a change of CEO and the announcement of a special dividend, the broker feels that Resimac is going places. It said:

The buy case remains. RMC has a small but strong position in the mortgage market and a developing position in novated leases, both of which give it scope to grow profitably. After a period of stiff competition and change of leadership, the company has renewed team and strategy with a revised agenda to grow. We review our assumptions and include the $1.5bn auto book.

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $1.00 price target on its shares. Based on its current share price of 83 cents, this implies potential upside of 20.5% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post These ASX shares could rise 20% to 30% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are starting the week in the red:

Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH)

The Adairs share price is down 18% to $2.11. The catalyst for this has been the release of the furniture and homewares retailer's trading update this morning. Although group sales are expected to be a record of between $614 million and $618 million, things are not as positive for its earnings. Group underlying EBIT is forecast to be between $53.5 million and $57 million for the year. This is down from $57.6 million during FY 2024's 53-week period. This reflects elevated promotional activity, which has adversely impacted gross margins.

ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ)

The ANZ share price is down 1.5% to $28.00. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of UBS this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the banking giant's shares to a sell rating and cut the price target on them to $26.50. UBS believes that the bank's new CEO will be wanting to build a stronger CET1 ratio. It thinks this will be at the expense of earnings growth and has therefore cut its estimates for the coming years.

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is down 25% to 23 cents. Investors have been selling this gold miner's shares after it released its guidance for FY 2026 and its aspirational outlook for the following two years. Aurelia Metals is forecasting a mixed three years for gold production with higher than expected costs. Macquarie responded to the update, commenting: "While AMI can be applauded for providing a detailed level of disclosure, perhaps the market has penalised it for its transparency. Although positive FCF generation has been deferred to FY28 due to organic investments, its strong balance sheet (A$107m cash) differentiates it to peers." It retains its outperform rating with a reduced price target of 25 cents.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)

The Pilbara Minerals share price is down 2% to $1.21. This is likely to have been driven partly by a broker note out of Ord Minnett this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded its shares to a sell rating with a heavily reduced price target of $1.10. The broker made the move after downgrading its lithium forecasts through to 2027.

The post Why Adairs, ANZ, Aurelia Metals, and Pilbara Minerals shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the ASX All Ords mining stock is down 5% to 19.5 cents.

The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) is likely to see this as a buying opportunity for investors.

Let's see what the broker is saying about the gold miner.

Why is this ASX All Ords mining stock a buy?

Macquarie notes that the gold miner released its guidance and aspirational targets at its investor day event last week. It said:

The Investor Day included FY26 guidance, and outlook for FY27/28 which outlined a CuEq. production target of ~40ktpa by FY28 through the centralised processing facility at Peak (1.1-1.2Mtpa capacity) with ~50% Cu/Au ore and 50% Zn/Pb ore fed by three separate mines at Peak South, New Cobar, and Federation. AMI also highlighted an aspirational goal of +80ktpa of CuEq. production in +5 years.

While this was a touch better than expected, it was offset by higher than forecast costs. Macquarie adds:

Group operating cost guidance in FY26 and outlook in FY27/28 was ~20% higher than prior MQe forecasts. After incorporating the mid-point of the guidance and outlook, we had meaningful downgrades to our forward forecasts.

In light of the above, the broker highlights that "FY28 is a clear FCF inflection point for AMI and MQe forecasts is trading on an EV/Ebitda of 4.1x and FCF yield of 8%, however if gold prices remain strong, in a spot scenario its EV/ Ebitda would improve to 1.6x and FCF yield would improve to 25%."

As a result, the broker remains positive on this ASX All Ords mining stock and is urging investors to snap up shares following a recent pullback.

Big returns potential

The note reveals that Macquarie has retained its outperform rating with a reduced price target 25 cents.

Based on its current share price, this implies potential of 28% for investors over the next 12 months.

Commenting on its outperform rating, the broker said:

While AMI can be applauded for providing a detailed level of disclosure, perhaps the market has penalised it for its transparency. Although positive FCF generation has been deferred to FY28 due to organic investments, its strong balance sheet (A$107m cash) differentiates it to peers.

Overall, this could make Aurelia Metals worth considering if you are looking for exposure to this side of the market.

The post Macquarie tips 28% upside for this ASX All Ords mining stock appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is down 25% to 23 cents. Investors have been selling this gold miner's shares after it released its guidance for FY 2026 and its aspirational outlook for the following two years. Aurelia Metals is forecasting a sizeable drop in production in FY 2026 with higher operating costs. And while it expects a rebound in production the following year, it is then forecasting another sizeable decline in FY 2028. This appears to have disappointed investors and fallen significantly short of the market's expectations.

Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF)

The Centuria Office share price is down 2.5% to $1.20. This appears to have been driven by a broker note out of Bell Potter this morning. According to the note, the broker has downgraded the office property company's shares to a sell rating with a reduced price target of $1.10 (from $1.20). It said: "We appreciate that there is deep value in this name (-28% discount to NTA) when taking a long-term view (given white collar employment growth and limited new supply) but considering the lack of near-term catalysts and BP estimates for negative FFO growth (-14% FY25 & -1% FY26) we see better relative value elsewhere in the sector."

Meeka Metals Ltd (ASX: MEK)

The Meeka Metals share price is down 11.5% to 15.5 cents. This has been driven by the completion of the gold developer's institutional placement. Meeka has raised $60 million at a discount of 15 cents per new share. Meeka's managing director, Tim Davidson, said: "With this funding in place the Company is now focused on maximising the expanded open pit mining opportunity, confirming the pathway to bring forward production with increased processing capacity and defining further growth opportunities with the drill bit."

Resolute Mining Ltd (ASX: RSG)

The Resolute Mining share price is down 10% to 59.7 cents. This reflects broad weakness in the gold industry today after the US Federal Reserve elected to not cut interest rates overnight. It isn't just Resolute Mining that is falling. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is down 10% at the time of writing.

The post Why Aurelia Metals, Centuria Office, Meeka Metals, and Resolute shares are tumbling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the ASX All Ords share is down 36% to 19.5 cents.

Why is this ASX All Ords share crashing?

Investors have been selling off this gold miner's shares this morning after it released an update on its FY 2026 guidance, as well as its aspirational outlook for FY 2027 and FY 2028.

As a reminder, Aurelia Metals is aiming for production of 40,000 to 50,000 ounces of gold in FY 2025 with group operating costs of $185 million to $220 million.

According to the release, the ASX All Ords share is forecasting a drop in gold production to 35,000 to 45,000 ounces in FY 2026. Also heading in the wrong direction will be its group operating costs, which are expected to rise to $275 million to $315 million.

Commenting on its higher costs, the company said:

Peak operating costs in FY26 reflect higher operating development and process plant throughput. Federation operating costs, which were treated as growth capital in FY25, are now included in operating costs with commercial production expected from 1 July 2025.

It gets worse

Unfortunately, the following two years will be equally bumpy. Management is guiding to a rebound in gold production to 43,000 ounces to 53,000 ounces in FY 2027, before expecting another sizeable drop in production to 30,000 ounces to 40,000 ounces in FY 2028.

More bad news is that its operating costs are expected to keep rising across both years. It is guiding to group operating costs of $290 million to $330 million in FY 2027 and then to $310 million to $350 million in FY 2028.

Unlike the market, the ASX All Ords share's managing director and CEO, Bryan Quinn, was pleased with its outlook. He said:

It gives me great pleasure to release our FY26 guidance and aspirational outlook for FY27 and FY28 today as part of our Investor Day, which showcases the compelling opportunity that we have at Aurelia to continue building a great business in the Cobar Region. With Federation assumed to achieve commercial production in July 2025, we are now focused on ramping up the mining rates to the nameplate production of 600ktpa.

We are also committed to ensuring the Great Cobar Project is executed efficiently, with first production from the mine expected in FY28 in line with the project approval announcement. The combined ore from these two mines is planned to be treated in an expanded process plant at Peak, which can maximise revenue through its ability to produce separated concentrates, generating strong cash flow for our shareholders.

The post Guess which ASX All Ords share is crashing 36% today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that have failed to follow the market higher today are listed below. Here's why they are falling:

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is down almost 5% to 29.5 cents. Investors have been selling this gold miner's shares following a pullback in the gold price and the release of its quarterly update. In respect to the latter, the gold miner reported production of 16.6k ounces of gold, 0.5kt of copper, 3.2kt of zinc, and 3.5kt of lead at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,593 per ounce. This underpinned operating cash flow from Peak and Dargues of $44.2 million. This is up from $21.1 million during the previous quarter. Aurelia Metals' FY 2025 production and cost guidance remains unchanged.

Cettire Ltd (ASX: CTT)

The Cettire share price is down 17.5% to 54 cents. The catalyst for this has been the release of a disappointing third quarter update from the online luxury products retailer. Cettire achieved a 1% increase in sales revenue over the prior corresponding period to $260.1 million. However, this was achieved with a delivered margin of 14%, which reflects a continuation of heightened promotional activity. This led to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $4.7 million for the period, which is inclusive of $2.1 million realised foreign exchange losses. Management warned that the fourth quarter was likely to be tough. It highlights that there "continues to be uncertainty within the global personal luxury goods market, with softer demand persisting."

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

The Northern Star share price is down 8% to $21.17. This has been driven by a pullback in the gold price overnight and a shift out of safe haven and risk-off assets. Northern Star isn't the only gold miner on the decline today. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is down by a sizeable 7.7% at the time of writing.

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW)

The Woolworths share price is down 1% to $31.46. This also could have been caused by investors switching out of risk-off assets and back into risk-on assets. As a supermarket giant, Woolworths shares are popular with investors when markets become volatility. So much so, they are up almost 7% since this time last month despite the market weakness.

The post Why Aurelia Metals, Cettire, Northern Star, and Woolworths shares are falling appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are not letting that hold them back are listed below. Here's why they are rising:

APA Group (ASX: APA)

The APA Group share price is up 1% to $7.52. Investors appear to have been buying this energy infrastructure company's shares during today's market selloff due to its status as a safe haven asset. The team at Ord Minnett would likely be supportive of this buying. Last month, the broker put a buy rating and $8.60 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months. It also expects dividend yields in the region of 8% through to at least FY 2030. This stretches the total potential 12-month return to approximately 22%.

Aurelia Metals Ltd (ASX: AMI)

The Aurelia Metals share price is up 10% to 22.5 cents. This is despite there being no news out of the gold miner on Tuesday. Though, it is worth noting that its shares have been on fire this year and this is a continuation of their upward trend. The catalyst for this has been the company's strong performance so far in FY 2025. Last month, Aurelia Metals reported a 53% increase in half-year underlying EBITDA to $49.7 million and a 949% jump in underlying net profit after tax to $15.6 million. CEO, Bryan Quinn, said: "Strategically our business remains on track to grow in the Cobar region with increasing copper equivalent production. Increasing tonnes processed at Peak from 700kt in FY25 towards 1.1-1.2mtpa will deliver significantly more cash flow and profits from our business."

Magnetic Resources (ASX: MAU)

The Magnetic Resources share price is up 4% to $1.44. This gold explorer's shares have been pushing higher this month thanks to promising drilling results. Magnetic Resources revealed that its latest drilling has defined a new most northern third 150m x 400m high-grade core which remains open at depth.

ResMed Inc (ASX: RMD)

The ResMed share price is up almost 3% to $37.42. This sleep disorder treatment company's shares were among a small group of shares that avoided the selloff on Wall Street overnight and pushed higher. Goldman Sachs would no doubt be encouraging investors to buy shares following recent weakness. Last week, the broker added ResMed's shares to its coveted conviction list with a buy rating and $49.00 price target. This implies potential upside of approximately 31% for investors between now and this time next year.

The post Why APA, Aurelia Metals, Magnetic Resources, and ResMed shares are rising today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.