Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services.
Author bio
Samantha Menzies is a writer and editor with close to 20 years' experience covering finance, investing, business and property in Australia and the UK. She has held senior editorial roles at Yahoo Finance Australia and written for leading financial publications including The Motley Fool Australia, InvestorDaily, IFA, KangaNews and Euromoney Institutional Investor.
Samantha specialises in Australian and global share markets, personal finance, investing tips, business, property and economic news. As a freelance writer, she helps businesses and professionals communicate complex financial topics with clarity, accuracy and impact through high-quality editorial content.
Areas of expertise
Australian and global share markets
Personal finance
Investing tips
Business, property and economic news
Education
Bachelor of Arts, Nottingham Trent University
Social mediaLinkedInFavourite investment quote
"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."
— Warren Buffett
Published
BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have shown incredible resilience at a time when ASX shares have suffered multiple headwinds. These include high inflation, interest rates, oil price volatility, and commodity price swings.
The ASX mining stock climbed higher through late 2025 and early 2026, before crashing around 19% in March following news of the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
But the shares quickly regained momentum later the same month and have mostly trended upwards since.
Since then, BHP shares have been pretty stable, trading somewhere between $54.72 and $67.67 over the past six months.
Some are now incredibly bullish that the company can keep climbing higher. Meanwhile, more reserved market experts question if BHP shares have now reached a ceiling.
So I decided to analyse both the bull and bear cases for BHP shares to reach my own conclusions.
Here's what I found.
Image source: Getty Images
The bull case for BHP shares
BHP has aggressively pivoted its business towards copper over the past few years, transitioning its income from a pure-play iron ore producer to a diverse mining powerhouse.
The transition has paid off, too. BHP has become a dominant global copper miner, and its copper business now generates over half (or approximately 54%) of its underlying EBITDA.
Its copper business is also set to keep growing. The miner's expansion plans for its South Australian Olympic Dam Block Cave are in full swing. A recent operations review shows a mineral resource of 10.73 billion tonnes grading 0.59% copper.
That adds a potentially significant underground mining option to boost BHP's broader copper production plans.
It's great timing too.
It looks like the copper market could also be in the early stages of a bull run, creating a runway for BHP shares to rocket higher.
The metal is widely expected to be approaching a long-term structural supply deficit, driven by increasing demand from ongoing home building, electrical equipment, and household appliances. This is expected to be supported further by a boom in demand from electric vehicles, renewables, AI, and data centres.
In fact, BHP said that copper demand is expected to grow from around 34 million tonnes per year in 2026, up to around 50 million tonnes by 2050.
The miner also said it anticipates that copper demand associated with investment in data centres could grow around sixfold between 2024 and 2050. That's an increase of around 3 million tonnes per annum.
And BHP is well-positioned to soak up a lot of that demand, and maintain its position as a dominant global miner.
Gur orne pnfr sbe OUC funerf
OUC funerf unir erznvarq eryngviryl hapunatrq bire gur cnfg fvk zbaguf sbyybjvat na bcrengvbany obggyrarpx, fbsgre Puvarfr veba ber qrznaq, naq srnef gung gur zvare'f funer cevpr inyhr unf eha nurnq bs vgf ohfvarff shaqnzragnyf.
Veba ber vf abj genqvat nebhaq n sbhe-lrne ybj bs nebhaq PAL 670 cre gbaar.&aofc;
Nppbeqvat gb Genqvat Rpbabzvpf, veba ber fgbpxcvyrf ng znwbe Puvarfr cbegf vapernfrq arneyl 1% gb 153.72 zvyyvba gbaf va gur cnfg jrrx, juvyr fuvczragf sebz cebqhpref bhgfvqr Nhfgenyvn naq Oenmvy erznvarq ryringrq.
Ng n pheerag funer cevpr bs $56.81, OUC vf genqvat ba n genvyvat cevpr-gb-rneavatf (C/R) engvb bs nebhaq 21 gvzrf. Guvf vf fvtavsvpnagyl uvture guna pbzcrgvgbef yvxr Evb Gvagb Ygq (NFK: EVB) naq Sbegrfphr Ygq (NFK: SZT), juvpu ner genqvat ba n genvyvat C/R engvb bs nebhaq 14 gvzrf naq 11 gvzrf, erfcrpgviryl.
Zl ireqvpg
V'z pnhgvbhf ba cevpr ohg cbfvgvir ba gur ybat-grez pbccre fgbel sbe OUC. V guvax gur zvare'f ybat-grez cbgragvny tebjgu sne bhgjrvtuf arne-grez urnqjvaqf.
N pbccre fhccyl qrsvpvg vf ybbzvat, naq nf qrznaq sbe gur zrgny enzcf hc, V guvax OUC pbhyq orarsvg sebz n qbhoyr-rqtrq fjbeq bs uvture cevprf naq uvture qrznaq.
Gur zvare vf nyfb dhvpxyl fpnyvat vgf pbccre bcrengvbaf, naq V nagvpvcngr n enyyl va vairfgbe vagrerfg va OUC funerf nf vairfgbef ernyvfr gur cbgragvny gung vgf Bylzcvp Qnz Oybpx Pnir rkcnafvba cyna bssref sbe birenyy pbzcnal tebjgu.
Jung qb gur rkcregf guvax?
Vs jr ybbx ng rkcreg bhgybbxf, fragvzrag vf zbfgyl arhgeny. Ohg n jvqr enatr bs nanylfg gnetrg cevprf tvirf zvkrq zrffntrf nobhg jurgure jr'yy frr na hcfvqr, be n fgebat qbjafvqr sbe OUC funerf bire gur arkg 12 zbaguf.
GenqvatIvrj qngn fubjf gung 11 bhg bs 18 nanylfgf unir n ubyq engvat ba OUC funerf. Nabgure svir unir n fgebat ohl engvat, naq gjb engr gur funerf n fryy/fgebat fryy.
Gur nirentr $61.14 gnetrg cevpr vzcyvrf na hcfvqr bs nebhaq 8%, ng gur gvzr bs jevgvat.
Ohg gur qvssrerapr orgjrra gur zvavzhz naq znkvzhz vf uhtr. Fbzr gvc gur funerf gb penfu 19% gb $46.04, juvyr bguref guvax gur funerf unir gur cbgragvny gb vapernfr 26% gb $71.87, ng gur gvzr bs jevgvat.
Zvpunry Tnoyr sebz Snvezbag Rdhvgvrf guvaxf jr'er va gur rneyl fgntrf bs n pbzzbqvgvrf obbz. Ur guvaxf fhccyl pbafgenvagf naq vapernfvat qrznaq pbhyq qevir pbccre cevprf uvture.&aofc;
Guvf vf terng arjf sbe n zvare yvxr OUC, juvpu trarengrf n fvtavsvpnag ibyhzr bs vgf vapbzr sebz pbccre.&aofc;
Ohg abg rirelbar nterrf. Erq Yrns Frphevgvrf unf n ubyq engvat ba gur zvavat funerf naq jneaf gung n fbsgre tybony tebjgu bhgybbx naq hapregnvagl fheebhaqvat Puvarfr pbzzbqvgl qrznaq yvzvg gur pnfr sbe ntterffviryl ohlvat gur fgbpx.
Gura gurer ner gur zbfg ornevfu rkcregf yvxr Pngnchyg Jrnygu, juvpu unf n fryy engvat ba OUC funerf. Gur grnz vf pbaprearq gung OUC unf eha gbb sne nurnq bs gehr inyhr.
