Temple & Webster +30%, Nick Scali -15%: Why did sector correlation go out the window last week?

Two ASX furniture retailers, two very different share price reactions. What happened?

If you've ever sat through a finance course, you would have learned about correlation.

The theory is that similar companies are exposed to the same variables, causing their stock prices to move in the same direction.

This creates the need for a diversified portfolio, which is why many experts suggest investors hold 15-30 uncorrelated stocks. 

Companies in the same sector are often viewed as highly correlated.

For example, the big four banks operate in the banking sector. Australian banks collectively benefit when the RBA raises the cash rate because they can then raise mortgage rates and make more money. They are also disadvantaged when unemployment spikes, as this increases the likelihood of mortgage defaults. 

A similar logic can be applied to the consumer discretionary sector. The sector is considered relatively cyclical, tied to the state of the economy.

In theory, when the economy is booming, consumer discretionary companies should benefit as people have more money to spend at their stores. This should translate into higher share prices for consumer discretionary stocks. On the flip side, when unemployment and inflation are up, consumers may be less inclined to spend on discretionary purchases.

However, that logic went out the window last week when ASX furniture retailers Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK) and Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) provided trading updates.

Nick Scali's shares fell more than 15% in a day, while Temple & Webster's update sent its shares soaring more than 30%. 

What happened?

Motley Fool contributor Laura Stewart has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL, Nick Scali, and Temple & Webster Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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