ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are almost flat in early morning trade on Tuesday, at $37.88 a piece.
The shares have now rebounded around 12% from an annual low, recorded in early June.
The June share price dip was the result of a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, including geopolitical volatility, and a sharp crash in global commodity prices.
Many investors became more concerned about the implications on Australia's inflation rate, and any consequential interest rate increases. These concerns created market-wide selling pressure.
But thanks to the latest rebound, the shares are now up 4% year to date and 5% higher than this time last year.
Image source: Getty Images
Why are ANZ shares rebounding?
Again, it's down to a combination of factors.
The ASX bank shares have climbed higher off the back of a solid third-quarter FY26 result, progress of its Suncorp Bank Ltd (ASX: SUN) integration plans, and a general investor rotation away from other ASX bank shares.
As part of its latest trading update in mid-August, ANZ posted a $1.90 billion cash profit, up 1% compared to the first quarter of FY26.
Excluding a provision relating to a New Zealand class action, ANZ's cash profit increased 5% to $1.98 billion for the quarter.
The company's Business and Private Banking lending climbed an impressive 4% over the quarter, while net interest income from its core banking operations increased 2%.
Operating expenses also fell 3% (excluding the legal provisions), with management set on achieving a 5% reduction in annual costs.
At the time, ANZ also confirmed that its Suncorp integration is on track, with customer migration scheduled for completion by June 2027. ANZ said it expects the integration to deliver approximately $500 million in annual pre-tax cost savings by FY29.
Meanwhile, higher inflation, interest rate concerns, and a declining property market have put pressure on retail-mortgage-focused banks like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).
Of Australia's big four major banks, ANZ has the smallest exposure to the Australian residential home loan market. Its skew towards business banking exposure means it is often viewed as an attractive alternative to some of its peers.
The bank is structurally less sensitive to domestic property market headwinds, including higher inflation and interest rate increases. However, it isn't completely immune.
Are ANZ shares a buy, sell, or hold now?
It looks like sentiment about the outlook for ANZ shares is mixed.
On Market Index data, the majority of brokers have a hold rating on the bank shares. But the $36.05 target price now implies around a 5% downside ahead, at the time of writing.
Again on TradingView, the experts are divided. The majority (seven out of 16) have a hold rating on the shares, but another six rate the shares as a buy/strong buy, and three more rate the shares as a sell/strong sell.
The same $36.05 target price implies a downside of around 5%, at the time of writing.
However, the difference between the minimum and maximum target prices is huge. Some think the shares could climb 8% to $41 a piece over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, others tip the shares to fall by up to 35%, to just $24.82 apiece at the time of writing.
