Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) shares have had a much tougher run recently.
The property giant is trading around $26.35 on Friday, well below the levels investors were willing to pay earlier in the year.
For investors considering the stock today, the obvious question is whether this weakness has created an opportunity.
Could Goodman shares climb back above $30 in 2027? I think they can.
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What would it take to reach $30?
A move from $26.35 to $30 would represent a gain of around 14%.
That does not look particularly demanding to me if Goodman can deliver the earnings growth the market is expecting.
Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 129.9 cents in FY26. Consensus forecasts point to EPS increasing to 142 cents in FY27 and then 151 cents in FY28.
That would represent earnings growth of around 9% in FY27, followed by another increase of approximately 6% in FY28.
For me, that earnings trajectory provides a reasonable foundation for the share price to recover.
What would Goodman be worth at $30?
At today's price of around $26.35, Goodman is trading on a PE ratio of approximately 18.6 times forecast FY27 earnings.
Using the FY28 consensus forecast, that multiple falls to around 17.5 times.
If Goodman shares reached $30, the stock would trade on approximately 21 times FY27 forecast earnings or just under 20 times FY28 earnings.
I do not think either valuation looks unreasonable if the company's data centre expansion is a success.
Of course, there are still uncertainties.
Goodman's valuation can be sensitive to investor expectations around interest rates and property markets, while earnings forecasts could change if the AI boom doesn't result in increased demand for data centres. A weaker earnings outlook could make $30 harder to justify.
But at the current share price, I think investors are being offered a more attractive starting point than they were near the 52-week high.
Would I buy Goodman shares?
I would. If earnings per share reaches 142 cents in FY27 and 151 cents in FY28, Goodman should continue growing into its valuation over the next couple of years.
That gives investors two potential drivers of returns: higher earnings and some recovery in the multiple investors are prepared to pay for those earnings.
I think that combination makes the shares attractive at current levels.
Foolish takeaway
For me, $30 looks like a realistic target for Goodman shares in 2027.
It would require a gain of around 14% from today's price, but the forecast earnings growth suggests the business could do some of the heavy lifting rather than relying entirely on a higher valuation.
Overall, I would be comfortable buying Goodman shares around $26.35 and giving the company time to work its way back above $30.
