James Hardie Industries Plc (ASX: JHX) shares are showing a little more life on Thursday.
The James Hardie share price is up 0.29% to $37.41 in late morning trade, but that barely dents its recent losses.
The stock has fallen almost 15% over the past month and more than 8% in a week, although it is still up around 21% in 2026.
Wednesday was particularly rough, with the shares dropping 5.23% after the company held its 2026 Investor Day.
Management reckons the company can keep growing strongly even if the US housing market stays weak.
But can it actually pull that off?
Image source: Getty Images
The US market remains difficult
The backdrop in the United States is still pretty tough.
US homebuilder sentiment fell to a 12-month low in September, while the average 30-year mortgage rate recently hit 6.76%.
Existing home sales also dropped 2% in August to an annualised rate of 3.98 million, the lowest level in 14 months.
That's not exactly ideal when North America is still the biggest part of James Hardie's business.
But management isn't banking on cheaper mortgages or a housing rebound to drive growth.
At its Investor Day, James Hardie said it is targeting organic growth of 4% to 7% above the market over the longer term.
And the company reckons it can get there even if housing conditions stay weak.
Growth is still holding up
James Hardie's first-quarter numbers suggest the plan is already starting to show through.
Q1 FY27 revenue rose 64% to US$1.48 billion, while pro-forma sales increased 12%.
North American fibre cement sales also grew 20% organically during the quarter, even with US housing still struggling.
That's probably the number I'd be paying closest attention to from here.
If James Hardie can keep growing ahead of the housing market, it takes some of the pressure off waiting for a full recovery.
Can it keep this going?
The next few results should give investors a better idea of whether James Hardie can keep this up.
So far, the early signs are encouraging.
At $37.41, the shares are well below their August high of $44.12, despite the business still moving in the right direction.
If James Hardie can keep growing ahead of the wider housing market, I think investors could start looking at the stock a little differently.
And if US housing eventually improves as well, that would give the company another reason to keep growing.
