ASX 200 rebounds from recent lows. Is this just another false start?

The rebound is a welcome change, but it may be too early to celebrate.

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The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is finally having a better day on Thursday, although it has already given back some of its early gains.

At the time of writing, the ASX 200 is up 0.39% to 8,730 points after climbing as high as 8,787 points earlier in the session.

That puts the index a little further away from Tuesday's intraday low of 8,657 points, but there's still plenty of damage to repair.

The benchmark remains down 4.22% over the past month, while trading around 6% below its 52-week high of 9,296 points.

So, is this another short-lived bounce or can the rally keep going?

Two boys looking at each other while standing by the start line with two schoolgirls.

Image source: Getty Images

Bank shares drive the rebound

The big four banks are doing plenty of the work today.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are up 1.29% to $153.49, while National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have climbed 1.96% to $38.77.

Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares are 1.63% higher at $34.99, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares are up 1.78% to $37.67.

There is some help coming from healthcare as well, with CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares rising 1.41% to $176.86.

The gains are reasonably widespread, too.

At the latest check, 109 ASX 200 stocks are rising, compared with 84 falling and 7 unchanged.

The next few sessions will tell us more

Today's bounce is encouraging, but I'd be a little careful about reading too much into one session just yet.

Wall Street finished lower overnight after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

It was the Fed's first-rate hike since July 2023.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX: .DJI) fell 1.21%, while the S&P 500 Index (SP: .INX) dropped 0.45%.

The Fed also left the door open to further rate hikes as it continues trying to get inflation back towards its 2% target.

There is plenty happening locally as well.

The RBA cash rate is currently 4.35% after three hikes in 2026, with its next interest rate decision due on 29 September.

Energy stocks are also weighing on the market today as oil prices pull back.

Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares are down 1.95% to $32.62, while Santos Ltd (ASX: STO) shares have fallen 2.92% to $8.48.

Foolish takeaway

Today's rebound is a welcome change, but I don't think it tells us much on its own.

The ASX 200 was more than 1% higher earlier this morning before giving back a decent chunk of that gain. That shows buyers are not completely in control just yet.

I'd be more interested to see whether the index can string together a few positive sessions and work its way back above 8,800 points.

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Teboneras has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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