Less than 3 weeks ago, BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares were trading at record highs.
Now they're heading the other way.
The mining giant is down another 1.13% to $60.18 on Monday morning, extending a sell-off that started late last week.
BHP closed at $64.58 last Wednesday, so the stock has dropped around 6.8% in just 3 trading sessions.
Friday did most of the damage, with the shares dropping 4.05% as mining shares were hit by uncertainty around US copper tariffs.
After such a quick pullback, some investors may be wondering whether BHP is starting to look cheap again.
I'm not sure we're there yet.
Image source: Getty Images
The rally has still been huge
The first thing I'd like to point out is just how far BHP shares have already run.
Even after the recent fall, the stock is still up around 33% in 2026.
It is now about 13% below its 52-week high of $68.77, reached in late August.
So, while the 6.8% drop looks significant, BHP is coming off a very strong run.
The business itself has also been performing well.
FY26 revenue increased 15% to US$58.8 billion, while underlying EBITDA rose 27% to US$32.9 billion. Net debt fell to US$8.7 billion, and the full-year dividend increased to 172 US cents per share.
Copper has become a large part of the business, generating around 54% of underlying EBITDA last year.
Is BHP actually cheap?
This is where I think things get more interesting.
The average 12-month broker price target tracked by TipRanks is $59.23, around 2% below today's share price.
Of the 15 analysts shown, 13 have a hold rating, with only 1 buy and 1 sell.
There's also a wide range of views. Morgan Stanley has a $68 target, while Freedom Capital Markets is at $66. Jefferies and Bank of America are both sitting at $65.
At the other end, Bernstein has a $44 target.
Would I buy after the fall?
I can see why investors might be tempted to buy after the latest decline.
BHP is still a very profitable business, and its growing exposure to copper gives investors another reason to stay interested.
But there are still a few things to watch, including softer iron ore prices and ongoing labour negotiations at Port Hedland.
At $60.18, I think BHP looks more attractive than it did near $69.
With broker targets clustered close to the current price, I'd still want BHP to fall a little further before buying.
