PLS shares have soared 107% in a year! Is the ASX 200 lithium stock now a buy, hold or sell?

A top analyst provides his outlook for the rocketing PLS share price.

Despite a material retrace since May's all-time highs, PLS Group Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have more than doubled investor's money over the past year.

In late morning trade on Monday, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium stock– formerly known as Pilbara Minerals – are changing hands for $4.47 apiece.

That sees the share price up 106.7% in 12 months, smashing the 1.1% one-year losses posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.

And we've yet to include the final FY 2026 PLS dividend.

As you may know, PLS suspended its dividend payouts in 2024 following the global lithium price crash of 2023.

But with the spodumene (a lithium bearing ore) price up 95% over the past 12 months, PLS declared a final fully-franked dividend of 5 cents per share.

The ASX lithium stock traded ex-dividend on 2 September. If you owned PLS shares at market close on 1 September, you can expect to see that passive income hit your bank account next week, on 24 September.

Of course, that dividend and the remarkable one-year share price gains are all water under the bridge today.

And, while well up over 12 months, the spodumene price has fallen around 29% since its mid-May highs.

That's seen short sellers come out to bet against the soaring ASX lithium stock. Indeed, as of market opening this morning, 11.2% of the miner's shares were held short, putting it among the top ten most shorted stocks on the ASX this week.

Which brings us back to our headline question…

Buy, hold, and sell ratings written on signs on a wooden pole.

Image source: Getty Images

Are PLS shares still a good buy today?

Baker Young's Toby Grimm recently analysed the outlook for the soaring Aussie lithium miner (courtesy of The Bull).

"This lithium producer generated group revenue of $1.934 billion in full year 2026, up 152 per cent on the prior corresponding period," he noted.

"It was driven by a 121 per cent increase in the average realised price and record sales volumes," Grimm added.

But with PLS shares having more than doubled in a year, Grimm issued a sell recommendation on the ASX 200 stock.

He concluded:

However, in our view, considerable optimism is already priced into the stock. Further details, including the benefits and risks, of potentially expanding the Pilgangoora operations are expected to be released in the December quarter.

After a strong share price run in the past year, we would consider cashing in some gains at these levels.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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